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Predictions / Leo vs G2 Ares · match preview
Leo vs G2 Ares: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
54%46%
53%
1.751.95Market · 14 books
47%The call
Leo are favoured: our model gives them 54% against G2 Ares. Bookmakers lean Leo at 53%. Form slightly favours Leo, firepower slightly favours G2 Ares.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LeopullG2 Ares
Team strength1515
150852/48 LEO
Track record47–48
42–4351/49 G2
Recent formLWWLW
LWLLW59/41 LEO
Roster rating1.08
1.0761/39 G2
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 53% for Leo (1.75 / 1.95) and we land at 54%, the same read. This read is 98% our own signal (237 maps of Leo, 195 of G2 Ares).
Bottom line: Leo to beat G2 Ares, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLeo · avg 1.08 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
G2 Ares · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Leo
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#281-22-0
Leo vs HOTU
Mar 13LDust29-13Ancient13-6Nuke20-22G2 Ares vs HOTU
Jul 31WMirage13-8Dust213-6
ex-RUSTEC#671-20-4
Leo vs ex-RUSTEC
Aug 18LNuke13-6Dust27-13Anubis2-13
Phantom#724-50-4
BRUTE#732-01-2
Leo vs BRUTE
Apr 7WNuke13-7Dust213-3G2 Ares vs BRUTE
Sep 15LAncient13-6Cache11-13Mirage5-13
Butterfly#740-22-3
Leo vs Butterfly
Aug 27LCache10-13Ancient7-13
Bushido Wildcats#767-42-5
Leo vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 15WDust214-16Nuke13-9Cache13-11Aug 20WNuke13-9Mirage3-13Dust213-2Aug 4LNuke6-13Dust213-7Anubis1-13+1 earlier meeting
G2 Ares vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 6WInferno13-10Dust214-16Anubis16-12Aug 26LInferno6-13Dust211-13Feb 12LMirage6-13Anubis7-13
BET-M#770-20-2
Leo vs BET-M
Sep 15Lseries0-2G2 Ares vs BET-M
Mar 4LAnubis9-13Ancient10-13
WW#810-42-1
G2 Ares vs WW
Mar 3WOverpass9-13Dust219-16Map lab
G2 Ares53%to win the Bo3 · most likely G2 Ares 2-1
If the veto goes
Leo 47%how the series ends53% G2 Ares
23%2-026%
24%2-127%
Leo57%36-29vsG2 Ares43%17-18
55%Win49%
51%CT51%
53%T45%
50%Pistol51%
80%Conv61%
Leo41%6-7vsG2 Ares59%24-19
46%Win56%
48%CT55%
54%T50%
54%Pistol52%
86%Conv71%
Leo47%18-22vsG2 Ares53%14-15
45%Win48%
51%CT52%
46%T47%
34%Pistol57%
85%Conv85%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LeoDust2G2 Ares
51%CT side51%
53%T side45%
50%Pistol51%
80%After win61%
17%After loss18%
LeoInfernoG2 Ares
48%CT side55%
54%T side50%
54%Pistol52%
86%After win71%
33%After loss34%
LeoAncientG2 Ares
51%CT side52%
46%T side47%
34%Pistol57%
85%After win85%
8%After loss28%
Pistol rounds45% · 53% · G2 Ares win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol82% · 72% · Leo keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol15% · 27% · G2 Ares fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Leo vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
G2 Ares habitually bans Nuke, Leo's strongest maps (Nuke, Overpass all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 85/87), not an opponent read, so expect Leo to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapLEOG2
MirageLEO ban46%6-749%21-22
NukeG2 ban63%25-15n/a0g
Dust2LEO pick55%36-2949%17-18
InfernoG2 pick46%6-756%24-19
AnubisLEO ban32%12-2644%7-9
CacheG2 ban43%3-420%2-8
Ancientdecider45%18-2248%14-15
Each team's usual first ban: Leo Mirage · G2 Ares Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Leo
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/109 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 109 maps they won, 29 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 downvs Lazer CatsInfernofrom 6 downvs QWENTRYDust2from 6 downvs ASTRALDust2from 5 downvs AimhausDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i34/112 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 112 maps they lost, 34 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UNiTYAncientled 7 · lost 14-16vs Lazer CatsInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs WWAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16vs UrsaAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13vs PhantomAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UNiTYAncientled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 24Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 24 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAnubis14-16vs WWNuke17-19vs WWAnubis14-16vs BIGAnubis14-16vs Bushido WildcatsNuke19-16
G2 Ares
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i33/95 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 95 maps they won, 33 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs MisaInfernofrom 9 downvs AzuolasInfernofrom 8 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 7 downvs LilmixAncientfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i33/100 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 100 maps they lost, 33 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs 9INEMirageled 8 · lost 23-25vs MisaDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs QUAZARCacheled 7 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 35Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 35 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16