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Predictions / Inner Circle vs Nemiga · match preview
Inner Circle vs Nemiga: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier
Inner Circle
World #24 · 38-28
VS
2026-09-09 17:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Nemiga
World #63 · 64-30
55%45%
52%
1.781.92Market · 5 books
48%The call
Inner Circle are favoured: our model gives them 55% against Nemiga. Bookmakers lean Inner Circle at 52%. Form clearly favours Nemiga.
Likely mapsDust2 · Anubis · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Inner CirclepullNemiga
Team strength1657165850/50
Track record38–28
64–3056/44 NEM
Recent formLLWLW
WWWWW74/26 NEM
Roster rating1.11
1.1354/46 NEM
Bookmakers imply 52% for Inner Circle (1.78 / 1.92); we land 3 points higher at 55%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (155 maps of Inner Circle, 228 of Nemiga).
Bottom line: Inner Circle to beat Nemiga, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Inner Circle
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#281-40-2
Nemiga vs HOTU
Sep 2LAncient14-16Cache9-13
K27#371-22-5
Inner Circle vs K27
Mar 19LAnubis9-13Dust213-7Mirage8-13
Betclic#401-21-0
Inner Circle vs Betclic
Feb 2LDust213-4Mirage11-13Overpass5-13Nemiga vs Betclic
Sep 4WAnubis13-11
FOKUS#413-73-2
Nemesis#440-27-5
Inner Circle vs Nemesis
Jan 27LMirage16-19Nuke11-13Nemiga vs Nemesis
Sep 5WMirage13-1Ancient13-7Apr 1LOverpass13-4Nuke7-13Dust29-13Mar 24WNuke13-5Overpass10-13Dust213-10+2 earlier meetings
Acend#465-34-0
Iberian Soul#472-12-1
Inner Circle vs Iberian Soul
Aug 9WCache13-7Anubis6-13Ancient13-11Nemiga vs Iberian Soul
Sep 3WAncient10-13Nuke16-12Mirage13-8
Virtus.pro#512-02-0
Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro
Jul 11WMirage13-9Dust213-9Nemiga vs Virtus.pro
Jan 27Wseries2-0Firepower
roster ratingsInner Circle · avg 1.11 · top +0.1
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawy | 154 | 1.12 | 84.4 | 75.1% | 54% | 1.21 |
| headtr1ck | 98 | 1.3 | 72.5 | 76.2% | 36% | 1.14 |
| cptkurtka023 | 154 | 0.96 | 73 | 72.4% | 61% | 1.11 |
| zeRRoFIX | 154 | 1.02 | 73.3 | 73% | 57% | 1.07 |
| onic | 154 | 0.89 | 66.1 | 70.9% | 53% | 1.01 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Inner Circle vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapINNNEM
InfernoINN bann/a0g100%1-0
Inner Circle on Inferno
no recent maps
Nemiga on Inferno
Wex-RUBY13–65mo agoCacheNEM ban100%2-033%1-2
Dust2INN pick69%24-1155%23-19
AnubisNEM pick57%8-675%27-9
NukeINN ban50%10-1058%19-14
MirageNEM ban46%16-1961%19-12
Ancientdecider57%20-1559%29-20
Each team's usual first ban: Inner Circle Inferno · Nemiga Inferno.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Nemiga54%to win the seriesiMap edgesDust2: Inner Circle 63% · Anubis: Nemiga 69% clear · Ancient: Nemiga 52% toss-upWhyNemiga hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesInner Circle 46%: 2-1 26%, 2-0 20% · Nemiga 54%: 2-1 29%, 2-0 25%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Inner Circle 46%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Nemiga only lead because their Anubis is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.54% Nemiga
Dust2
Inner Circle63%Nemiga37%
24-11record23-19
69%win55%
56%CT win51%
57%T win54%
47%pistol48%
76%convert83%
Anubis
Inner Circle31%Nemiga69%
8-6record27-9
57%win75%
56%CT win62%
51%T win55%
64%pistol56%
78%convert79%
Ancient
Inner Circle48%Nemiga52%
20-15record29-20
57%win59%
53%CT win55%
49%T win51%
54%pistol46%
79%convert78%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
INNct
INNt
NEMct
NEMt
INNpistol
INNconv
INNeco
NEMpistol
NEMconv
NEMeco
Dust2pool
56%190/342
57%219/386
51%224/440
54%233/430
47%33/70
76%25/33
35%13/37
48%40/84
83%33/40
23%10/44
Anubispool
56%81/144
51%78/154
62%219/353
55%196/358
64%18/28
78%14/18
0%0/10
56%40/72
79%31/39
16%5/32
Ancientpool
53%185/351
49%184/378
55%286/518
51%273/532
54%38/70
79%30/38
25%8/32
46%45/98
78%35/45
23%12/53
Infernoban
n/a
n/a
71%5/7
67%8/12
n/a
n/a
n/a
100%2/2
100%2/2
n/a
Cacheban
63%15/24
50%10/20
56%20/36
38%13/34
50%2/4
50%1/2
50%1/2
67%4/6
100%4/4
0%0/2
Nukeban
59%131/223
42%79/190
53%203/380
47%151/320
45%18/40
50%9/18
18%4/22
55%36/66
78%28/36
10%3/30
Mirageban
53%190/356
52%200/381
53%175/331
52%151/290
61%43/70
86%36/42
22%6/27
61%38/62
84%32/38
13%3/24
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Inner Circle wins more pistol rounds: 53% vs 49%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → both win the next round about the same (78% vs 80%). Lose the pistol → Inner Circle fight back to win the next round more often (27% vs 21%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Inner Circle
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i25/87 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 87 maps they won, 25 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs Eternal FireAncientfrom 6 downvs FaZeMiragefrom 6 downvs 9INEAncientfrom 6 downvs VitalityCachefrom 6 downvs CYBERSHOKEMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/67 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 67 maps they lost, 23 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs NemesisMirageled 6 · lost 16-19vs K27Anubisled 6 · lost 9-13vs Friendly CampersAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs AcendMirageled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Eternal FireAncientfrom 6 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs FAVBETNuke17-19vs NemesisMirage16-19vs 3DMAXNuke13-16vs WHITEBIRDOverpass16-13vs WHITEBIRDDust214-16
Nemiga
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i37/140 (26%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 140 maps they won, 37 (26%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 26% of their wins were comebacks, not 26% of all games.vs OramondOverpassfrom 10 downvs BET-MAnubisfrom 7 downvs ex-RUBYAncientfrom 7 downvs FOKUSMiragefrom 7 downvs 1winOverpassfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/82 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 82 maps they lost, 23 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HOTUCacheled 8 · lost 9-13vs 1winMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs HOTUAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs ARCREDAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs WWDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs OramondOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HOTUCacheled 8 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs KOLESIEDust216-14vs ARCREDAncient12-16vs K27Anubis12-16vs mix52Nuke20-22vs GoodGame ClubOverpass16-14