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Predictions / NRG vs Without a Roof · match preview
NRG vs Without a Roof: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Closed Qualifier
NRG
World #51 · 28-21
VS
2026-09-09 23:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Without a Roof
World #119 · 7-4
70%30%
84%
1.15.75Market · 12 books
16%The call
NRG are favoured: our model gives them 70% against Without a Roof. Bookmakers lean NRG at 84%. Strength slightly favours NRG, firepower slightly favours NRG.
Likely mapsCache · Mirage · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NRGpullWithout a Roof
Team strength1611
153865/35 NRG
Track record28–21
7–454/46 WIT
Recent formLWWWW
WWLWW54/46 WIT
Roster rating1.15
1.1966/34 NRG
Bookmakers imply 84% for NRG (1.1 / 5.75); we land 14 points lower at 70%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 81% our own signal (115 maps of NRG, 18 of Without a Roof).
Bottom line: NRG to beat Without a Roof, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
NRG
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
SportsBetExpert#725-11-2
Marsborne#846-30-1
NRG vs Marsborne
Jul 30WAncient6-13Dust213-2Inferno13-8Jan 11WInferno5-13Mirage19-17Overpass13-9Jan 3WInferno11-13Mirage22-19Train13-10Without a Roof vs Marsborne
Sep 5LInferno4-13
LAG#952-00-2
NRG vs LAG
Apr 25WAncient13-3Inferno13-8Without a Roof vs LAG
Aug 30LAncient6-13Nuke7-13Firepower
roster ratingsNRG · avg 1.15 · top +0.07
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, NRG vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNRGWIT
AnubisNRG ban0%0-2100%1-0
Without a Roof on Anubis
WFor Fun13–111d agoNukeWIT ban41%7-1050%1-1
CacheNRG pick100%7-0n/a0g
NRG on Cache
W
Acend13–21mo agoW
Spirit HU13–01mo agoW
Voca13–71mo agoWSportsBetExpert13–51mo agoWVoca13–11mo agoWSportsBetExpert13–62mo agoWEh13–32mo agoWithout a Roof on Cache
no recent maps
MirageWIT pick72%18-780%4-1
AncientNRG ban50%9-967%2-1
Dust2WIT ban40%6-950%1-1
Each team's usual first ban: NRG Dust2 · Without a Roof Anubis.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
NRG53%to win the seriesiMap edgesCache: NRG 50% toss-up · Mirage: Without a Roof 51% toss-up · Inferno: NRG 58%WhyNRG hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesNRG 53%: 2-1 29%, 2-0 24% · Without a Roof 47%: 2-0 26%, 2-1 21%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
NRG 53%It’s nearly a coin-flip. NRG only lead because their pick is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.47% Without a Roof
Cache
NRG50%Without a Roof50%
thin sample, read with caution
7-0record0-0
100%win–
88%CT win–
74%T win–
86%pistol–
91%convert–
Mirage
NRG49%Without a Roof51%
18-7record4-1
72%win80%
69%CT win78%
41%T win51%
56%pistol70%
89%convert100%
Inferno
NRG58%Without a Roof42%
11-10record2-3
52%win40%
55%CT win45%
50%T win42%
64%pistol30%
81%convert33%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
NRGct
NRGt
WITct
WITt
NRGpistol
NRGconv
NRGeco
WITpistol
WITconv
WITeco
Cachepool
88%36/41
74%55/74
n/a
n/a
86%12/14
91%10/11
50%1/2
n/a
n/a
n/a
Miragepool
69%180/261
41%96/233
78%36/46
51%25/49
56%28/50
89%24/27
5%1/22
70%7/10
100%7/7
33%1/3
Infernopool
55%114/207
50%114/229
45%19/42
42%23/55
64%27/42
81%22/27
13%2/15
30%3/10
33%1/3
14%1/7
Anubisban
54%13/24
39%9/23
58%7/12
50%6/12
100%4/4
75%3/4
n/a
0%0/2
n/a
50%1/2
Nukeban
49%87/179
47%76/162
65%11/17
45%9/20
50%17/34
65%11/17
24%4/17
75%3/4
100%3/3
0%0/1
Ancientban
55%103/188
40%72/180
48%13/27
68%19/28
58%21/36
67%14/21
0%0/15
50%3/6
100%3/3
0%0/3
Dust2ban
49%68/138
41%67/164
58%14/24
62%8/13
37%11/30
73%8/11
11%2/19
75%3/4
67%2/3
0%0/1
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
NRG wins more pistol rounds: 63% vs 50%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → NRG usually win the next round too (86% vs 80%). Lose the pistol → Without a Roof fight back to win the next round more often (20% vs 10%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
NRG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/64 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 64 maps they won, 22 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs MarsborneDust2from 11 downvs 9INEDust2from 8 downvs MarsborneMiragefrom 6 downvs MarsborneMiragefrom 5 downvs MarsborneOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/51 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 51 maps they lost, 18 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BIGMirageled 12 · lost 12-16vs VocaMirageled 7 · lost 9-13vs FUTAncientled 7 · lost 13-16vs MarsborneInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13vs MOUZDust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MarsborneDust2from 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BIGMirageled 12 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs MarsborneMirage22-19vs 9INEDust225-23vs 9INEOverpass14-16vs VocaDust216-14vs MarsborneMirage19-17
Without a Roof
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/11 (45%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 11 maps they won, 5 (45%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 45% of their wins were comebacks, not 45% of all games.vs regainMiragefrom 5 downvs For FunAnubisfrom 5 downvs Wanted GoonsAncientfrom 3 downvs For FunMiragefrom 3 downvs EMPIREInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/7 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 7 maps they lost, 2 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SportsBetExpertMirageled 7 · lost 9-13vs LAGAncientled 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs regainMiragefrom 5 down · won 13-6
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SportsBetExpertMirageled 7 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi17% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT17% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample