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Predictions / Privateer vs NAVI Junior · match preview
Privateer vs NAVI Junior: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 Closed Qualifier
Privateer
World #189 · 4-13
VS
2026-09-11 14:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
NAVI Junior
World #112 · 10-11
25%75%
24%
3.761.22Market · 2 books
76%The call · high confidence
NAVI Junior are favoured: our model gives them 75% against Privateer. Bookmakers lean NAVI Junior at 76%. Strength clearly favours NAVI Junior, record slightly favours NAVI Junior, form clearly favours NAVI Junior, firepower clearly favours NAVI Junior.
Likely mapsNuke · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
PrivateerpullNAVI Junior
Team strength1387
148770/30 NAV
Track record4–13
10–1169/31 NAV
Recent formLLLLL
WWLLW86/14 NAV
Roster rating0.96
1.1100/0 NAV
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 24% for Privateer (3.76 / 1.22) and we land at 25%, the same read. This read is 90% our own signal (40 maps of Privateer, 45 of NAVI Junior).
Bottom line: NAVI Junior to beat Privateer, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
Privateer
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Fire Flux#1280-20-2
Privateer vs Fire Flux
Aug 14LNuke5-13Dust25-13NAVI Junior vs Fire Flux
Jun 19LNuke4-13Anubis11-13Firepower
roster ratingsPrivateer · avg 0.96 · top +0.15
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Privateer vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapPRINAV
AnubisPRI bann/a0g29%2-5
Privateer on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoNAV ban100%2-033%2-4
NukePRI pick31%4-920%1-4
MirageNAV pick20%1-488%7-1
CachePRI ban0%0-1n/a0g
Privateer on Cache
L
The Last Resort6–132mo agoNAVI Junior on Cache
no recent maps
AncientNAV ban29%2-533%3-6
Dust2decider20%2-860%3-2
Each team's usual first ban: Privateer Anubis · NAVI Junior Cache.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
NAVI Junior78%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: Privateer 55% toss-up · Mirage: NAVI Junior 84% clear · Dust2: NAVI Junior 75% clearWhyNAVI Junior hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesPrivateer 22%: 2-1 13%, 2-0 9% · NAVI Junior 78%: 2-1 40%, 2-0 38%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Privateer 22%NAVI Junior are the clearer side here: the most likely result is NAVI Junior 2-1.78% NAVI Junior
Nuke
Privateer55%NAVI Junior45%
4-9record1-4
31%win20%
51%CT win40%
43%T win46%
42%pistol50%
73%convert60%
Mirage
Privateer16%NAVI Junior84%
1-4record7-1
20%win88%
48%CT win66%
42%T win52%
50%pistol63%
60%convert80%
Dust2
Privateer25%NAVI Junior75%
2-8record3-2
20%win60%
45%CT win60%
36%T win63%
45%pistol20%
67%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
PRIct
PRIt
NAVct
NAVt
PRIpistol
PRIconv
PRIeco
NAVpistol
NAVconv
NAVeco
Nukepool
51%65/127
43%66/153
40%21/53
46%25/54
42%11/26
73%8/11
13%2/15
50%5/10
60%3/5
0%0/5
Miragepool
48%26/54
42%22/52
66%50/76
52%44/85
50%5/10
60%3/5
40%2/5
63%10/16
80%8/10
33%2/6
Dust2pool
45%45/100
36%30/83
60%32/53
63%24/38
45%9/20
67%6/9
18%2/11
20%2/10
100%2/2
50%4/8
Anubisban
n/a
n/a
46%32/69
47%37/78
n/a
n/a
n/a
57%8/14
75%6/8
33%2/6
Infernoban
63%15/24
58%11/19
35%19/55
52%34/66
50%2/4
100%2/2
0%0/2
33%4/12
75%3/4
25%2/8
Cacheban
33%4/12
29%2/7
n/a
n/a
50%1/2
100%1/1
0%0/1
n/a
n/a
n/a
Ancientban
61%41/67
24%17/70
42%39/93
51%44/86
50%7/14
43%3/7
14%1/7
39%7/18
71%5/7
18%2/11
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (Privateer 45%, NAVI Junior 47%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → NAVI Junior usually win the next round too (76% vs 68%). Lose the pistol → NAVI Junior fight back to win the next round more often (32% vs 19%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Privateer
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/11 (9%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 11 maps they won, 1 (9%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 9% of their wins were comebacks, not 9% of all games.vs megoshortInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/27 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 27 maps they lost, 8 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Fire FluxNukeled 8 · lost 5-13vs HonvédNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs megoshortMirageled 5 · lost 14-16vs BERGNukeled 5 · lost 12-16vs RyvexDust2led 4 · lost 22-25
Biggest comebackifrom 3 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs megoshortInfernofrom 3 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Fire FluxNukeled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs VoracityAncient14-16vs megoshortMirage14-16vs HonvédDust213-16vs The Last ResortNuke14-16vs RyvexDust222-25
NAVI Junior
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/18 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 18 maps they won, 6 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs LPHInfernofrom 5 downvs GamersLabNukefrom 5 downvs PrestigeMiragefrom 4 downvs GamersLabMiragefrom 4 downvs MAYBEAncientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/24 (21%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 24 maps they lost, 5 (21%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs JamAnubisled 4 · lost 11-13vs JamNukeled 4 · lost 14-16vs UNiTYAncientled 4 · lost 10-13vs GamersLabDust2led 3 · lost 12-16vs eSubaInfernoled 3 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LPHInfernofrom 5 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs JamAnubisled 4 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi24% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT24% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs ASTRALNuke15-19vs GamersLabDust212-16vs GamersLabMirage16-12vs eSubaInferno14-16vs JamNuke14-16