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Predictions / Lavked vs Honvéd · match preview
Lavked vs Honvéd: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9
LAV
Lavked
World #105 · 56-43
VS
2026-09-16 14:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
Honvéd
World #129 · 29-28
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
59%41%
The call
Lavked are favoured: our model gives them 59% against Honvéd. No odds yet. Every factor is level between the two sides.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LavkedpullHonvéd
Team strength1518
149056/44 LAV
Track record56–43
29–2855/45 LAV
Recent formLWWWL
WLWWW54/46 HON
Roster rating1.19
1.1153/47 LAV
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 97% our own signal (237 maps of Lavked, 135 of Honvéd).
Bottom line: Lavked to beat Honvéd, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLavked · avg 1.19 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Honvéd · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.22iStar gap: the best player rates 0.22 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Lavked
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
GenOne#564-10-4
INOX Division#592-30-2
Honvéd vs INOX Division
Aug 22LAncient4-13Inferno9-13
ex-RUSTEC#672-11-2
Lavked vs ex-RUSTEC
Jul 23WDust25-13Mirage13-9Anubis13-7Honvéd vs ex-RUSTEC
Aug 2LDust213-10Anubis2-13Mirage9-13
Bushido Wildcats#761-22-5
Lavked vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 22LNuke8-13Mirage13-10Dust24-13Honvéd vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 24LDust26-13Cache10-13Aug 21LDust25-13Cache4-13Aug 19WCache13-6Dust23-13Mirage13-10
ex-Zero Tenacity#822-30-2
Honvéd vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Aug 26LMirage7-13Cache13-16
G2 Ares#1032-22-1
Honvéd vs G2 Ares
Sep 13WInferno7-13Dust213-8Mirage13-11
Misa#1102-02-1
Lavked vs Misa
Jun 9WDust213-5Mirage13-10Honvéd vs Misa
Jul 21WDust213-11Mirage8-13Anubis16-13
The Last Resort#1342-12-0
Lavked vs The Last Resort
May 6WInferno3-13Dust213-5Nuke13-11Honvéd vs The Last Resort
Aug 14WDust216-12Inferno13-11Map lab
Lavked59%to win the Bo3 · most likely Lavked 2-1
If the veto goes
Lavked 59%how the series ends41% Honvéd
28%2-022%
31%2-119%
Lavked57%39-29vsHonvéd43%18-18
57%Win50%
56%CT56%
47%T41%
48%Pistol58%
77%Conv79%
Lavked49%22-20vsHonvéd51%21-18
52%Win54%
52%CT51%
52%T46%
50%Pistol53%
81%Conv90%
Lavked61%22-12vsHonvéd39%9-8
65%Win53%
54%CT53%
56%T45%
56%Pistol65%
87%Conv73%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LavkedMirageHonvéd
56%CT side56%
47%T side41%
48%Pistol58%
77%After win79%
14%After loss10%
LavkedDust2Honvéd
52%CT side51%
52%T side46%
50%Pistol53%
81%After win90%
19%After loss14%
LavkedAncientHonvéd
54%CT side53%
56%T side45%
56%Pistol65%
87%After win73%
23%After loss0%
Pistol rounds50% · 57% · Honvéd win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol81% · 82% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol17% · 10% · Lavked fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Lavked vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Honvéd habitually bans Nuke, Lavked's strongest maps (Ancient, Nuke all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 36/59), not an opponent read, so expect Lavked to fight the veto for Mirage.
MapLAVHON
InfernoLAV ban20%3-1231%4-9
NukeHON ban60%30-2060%3-2
MirageLAV pick57%39-2950%18-18
Dust2HON pick52%22-2054%21-18
CacheLAV ban0%0-136%4-7
AnubisHON ban47%8-957%4-3
Ancientdecider65%22-1253%9-8
Each team's usual first ban: Lavked Inferno · Honvéd Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Lavked
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i45/127 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 127 maps they won, 45 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs ASTRALDust2from 8 downvs Black PhoenixMiragefrom 8 downvs ex-RUBYNukefrom 7 downvs OLDBOYS PLMiragefrom 7 downvs UNiTYMiragefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i28/108 (26%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 108 maps they lost, 28 (26%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs G2 AresOverpassled 10 · lost 13-16vs ARCREDMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs UNiTYMirageled 8 · lost 7-13vs SPARTAInfernoled 6 · lost 12-16vs fnaticMirageled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ASTRALDust2from 8 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs G2 AresOverpassled 10 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 29Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 29 went to overtime.vs ex-RUBYAncient16-14vs ESCAncient13-16vs PhantomMirage16-14vs K27Dust212-16vs QUAZARNuke12-16
Honvéd
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i20/63 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 63 maps they won, 20 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 downvs The Last ResortInfernofrom 8 downvs brazylijski luzMiragefrom 6 downvs PrivateerNukefrom 6 downvs Noir VerseDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/68 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 23 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13vs BebopCacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs ex-MANADust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs MisaMirageled 6 · lost 8-13vs TeletubisieDust2led 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs PUREDust216-14vs brazylijski luzAncient19-17vs TNCAncient15-19vs ex-MANAMirage13-16vs GenOneDust213-16