Predictions
Confident picks
Today
Predictions / Black Phoenix vs G2 Ares · match preview
Black Phoenix vs G2 Ares: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 9
Black Phoenix
World #89 · 27-25
VS
2026-09-22 14:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
G2 Ares
World #103 · 42-43
CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · Best of 3
69%31%
The call
Black Phoenix are favoured: our model gives them 69% against G2 Ares. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Black Phoenix, firepower clearly favours Black Phoenix.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Black PhoenixpullG2 Ares
Team strength1552
150859/41 BLA
Track record27–2542–4350/50
Recent formLLWWW
LWLLW53/47 BLA
Roster rating1.06
1.0795/5 BLA
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 97% our own signal (131 maps of Black Phoenix, 195 of G2 Ares).
Bottom line: Black Phoenix to beat G2 Ares, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsBlack Phoenix · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
G2 Ares · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Black Phoenix
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
HOTU#280-22-0
Black Phoenix vs HOTU
Aug 24LDust26-13Anubis9-13G2 Ares vs HOTU
Jul 31WMirage13-8Dust213-6
INOX Division#591-21-2
Black Phoenix vs INOX Division
Sep 10LNuke4-13Dust213-1Inferno5-13G2 Ares vs INOX Division
Jul 26LDust216-14Anubis12-16Inferno8-13
EAC#660-22-0
Black Phoenix vs EAC
Jul 24Lseries0-2G2 Ares vs EAC
Jul 31WInferno13-6Ancient13-11
ex-RUSTEC#672-30-4
Butterfly#743-32-3
Bushido Wildcats#762-12-5
Black Phoenix vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 19WDust213-11Mirage4-13Nuke13-7G2 Ares vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 6WInferno13-10Dust214-16Anubis16-12Aug 26LInferno6-13Dust211-13Feb 12LMirage6-13Anubis7-13
WW#811-22-1
Black Phoenix vs WW
Sep 14LDust211-13Mirage13-11Anubis3-13G2 Ares vs WW
Mar 3WOverpass9-13Dust219-16
ex-Zero Tenacity#820-41-4
Map lab
Black Phoenix52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Black Phoenix 2-0
If the veto goes
Black Phoenix 52%how the series ends48% G2 Ares
33%2-018%
20%2-129%
Black Phoenix60%23-16vsG2 Ares40%17-18
59%Win49%
55%CT51%
52%T45%
54%Pistol51%
93%Conv61%
Black Phoenix55%8-5vsG2 Ares45%24-19
62%Win56%
57%CT55%
49%T50%
54%Pistol52%
86%Conv71%
Black Phoenix40%8-13vsG2 Ares60%21-22
38%Win49%
47%CT55%
49%T46%
50%Pistol53%
81%Conv78%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Black PhoenixDust2G2 Ares
55%CT side51%
52%T side45%
54%Pistol51%
93%After win61%
14%After loss18%
Black PhoenixInfernoG2 Ares
57%CT side55%
49%T side50%
54%Pistol52%
86%After win71%
8%After loss34%
Black PhoenixMirageG2 Ares
47%CT side55%
49%T side46%
50%Pistol53%
81%After win78%
14%After loss23%
Pistol rounds53% · 52% · level, no edge
After a won pistol88% · 71% · Black Phoenix keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol13% · 25% · G2 Ares fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Black Phoenix vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapBLAG2
AncientBLA ban0%0-148%14-15
NukeG2 ban53%10-9n/a0g
Black Phoenix on Nuke
L
QUAZAR9–13todayWex-RUSTEC13–34d agoLINOX Division4–1311d agoWPsychoFace13–913d agoW
BBL13–1021d agoL
SPARTA6–1322d agoW
UPGRADE13–1124d agoW
HAVU13–928d agoG2 Ares on Nuke
no recent maps
Dust2BLA pick59%23-1649%17-18
InfernoG2 pick62%8-556%24-19
AnubisBLA ban20%3-1244%7-9
CacheG2 ban53%8-720%2-8
Miragedecider38%8-1349%21-22
Each team's usual first ban: Black Phoenix Ancient · G2 Ares Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Black Phoenix
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/60 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 60 maps they won, 21 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs QUAZARDust2from 9 downvs WalczakiCachefrom 7 downvs CYBERSHOKECachefrom 7 downvs BAKSDust2from 7 downvs EnjoyMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/63 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 63 maps they lost, 21 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13vs LavkedMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Just PlayersMirageled 8 · lost 10-13vs CYBERSHOKEDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs ButterflyNukeled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs QUAZARDust2from 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs INOX DivisionNukeled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs LavkedMirage16-13vs WalczakiCache25-23vs ex-RUSTECInferno14-16vs BBLInferno16-13vs LavkedMirage13-16
G2 Ares
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i33/95 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 95 maps they won, 33 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs MisaInfernofrom 9 downvs AzuolasInfernofrom 8 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 7 downvs LilmixAncientfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i33/100 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 100 maps they lost, 33 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs 9INEMirageled 8 · lost 23-25vs MisaDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs QUAZARCacheled 7 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 35Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 35 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16