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Predictions / Inner Circle vs BBL · match preview
Inner Circle vs BBL: CS2 match prediction · Logitech G Play Connect 2026
Inner Circle
World #24 · 39-30
VS
2026-09-18 08:00 UTC
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
BBL
World #54 · 4-4
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
68%32%
69%
1.343.01Market · 2 books
31%The call
Inner Circle are favoured: our model gives them 68% against BBL. Bookmakers lean Inner Circle at 69%. Strength slightly favours Inner Circle, form slightly favours BBL, firepower slightly favours Inner Circle.
Likely mapsAncient · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Inner CirclepullBBL
Team strength1633
154568/32 INN
Track record39–30
4–456/44 INN
Recent formLWLLL
LWWWL65/35 BBL
Roster rating1.11
1.0461/39 INN
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 69% for Inner Circle (1.34 / 3.01) and we land at 68%, the same read. This read is 81% our own signal (162 maps of Inner Circle, 18 of BBL).
Bottom line: Inner Circle to beat BBL, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsInner Circle · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawy★ | 1.12 | 84.5 | 75.1% | 54% | 1.2 |
| headtr1ck | 1.28 | 72.5 | 75.9% | 35% | 1.14 |
| cptkurtka023 | 0.97 | 73.1 | 72.3% | 62% | 1.12 |
| zeRRoFIX | 1.02 | 73.4 | 73.3% | 57% | 1.07 |
| onic | 0.89 | 66.2 | 71% | 53% | 1.01 |
BBL · avg 1.04 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Inner Circle
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
3DMAX#232-12-1
Inner Circle vs 3DMAX
Jan 15WAncient13-9Nuke13-16Dust213-6BBL vs 3DMAX
Sep 10WCache16-13Nuke3-13Inferno13-7
HOTU#281-41-2
BBL vs HOTU
Sep 13LAnubis13-16Nuke13-7Cache7-13
Wildcard#401-22-0
Inner Circle vs Wildcard
May 22LDust213-11Mirage10-13Nuke7-13BBL vs Wildcard
Sep 12WNuke13-10Inferno16-12
fnatic#422-11-2
Inner Circle vs fnatic
Feb 26WAncient11-13Overpass13-8Dust213-10BBL vs fnatic
Sep 5LCache11-13Inferno13-9Ancient11-13Map lab
Inner Circle55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Inner Circle 2-1
If the veto goes
Inner Circle 55%how the series ends45% BBL
25%2-025%
30%2-120%
Inner Circle52%20-16vsBBL48%1-1
56%Win50%
52%CT42%
48%T78%
54%Pistol50%
79%Conv100%
Inner Circle48%10-11vsBBL52%3-3
48%Win50%
58%CT56%
41%T41%
45%Pistol42%
53%Conv80%
Inner Circle61%2-0vsBBL39%1-2
100%Win33%
63%CT47%
50%T42%
50%Pistol17%
50%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Inner CircleAncientBBL
52%CT side42%
48%T side78%
54%Pistol50%
79%After win100%
24%After loss0%
Inner CircleNukeBBL
58%CT side56%
41%T side41%
45%Pistol42%
53%After win80%
22%After loss0%
Inner CircleCacheBBL
63%CT side47%
50%T side42%
50%Pistol17%
50%After win100%
50%After loss0%
Pistol rounds51% · 36% · Inner Circle win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol70% · 88% · BBL keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol24% · 0% · Inner Circle fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Inner Circle vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
BBL habitually bans Dust2, Inner Circle's strongest maps (Dust2, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Dust2 8/8), not an opponent read, so expect Inner Circle to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapINNBBL
InfernoINN bann/a0g60%3-2
Inner Circle on Inferno
no recent maps
Dust2BBL ban68%25-12n/a0g
Inner Circle on Dust2
L
B810–135d agoW
Ninjas in Pyjamas13–116d agoW
Virtus.pro13–92mo agoW
magic13–42mo agoW
GenOne13–92mo agoW
Acend13–103mo agoW
Walczaki13–53mo agoW
Sashi16–123mo agoBBL on Dust2
no recent maps
AncientINN pick56%20-1650%1-1
NukeBBL pick48%10-1150%3-3
MirageINN ban46%17-20100%1-0
AnubisBBL ban53%8-70%0-1
Cachedecider100%2-033%1-2
Each team's usual first ban: Inner Circle Inferno · BBL Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Inner Circle
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/89 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 89 maps they won, 26 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs Eternal FireAncientfrom 6 downvs FaZeMiragefrom 6 downvs 9INEAncientfrom 6 downvs VitalityCachefrom 6 downvs CYBERSHOKEMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/72 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 72 maps they lost, 26 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs NemesisMirageled 6 · lost 16-19vs K27Anubisled 6 · lost 9-13vs Friendly CampersAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs AcendMirageled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Eternal FireAncientfrom 6 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs FAVBETNuke17-19vs NemesisMirage16-19vs 3DMAXNuke13-16vs WHITEBIRDOverpass16-13vs WHITEBIRDDust214-16
BBL
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/9 (56%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 9 maps they won, 5 (56%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 56% of their wins were comebacks, not 56% of all games.vs UPGRADEMiragefrom 7 downvs fnaticInfernofrom 4 downvs 3DMAXCachefrom 4 downvs WildcardInfernofrom 4 downvs HOTUNukefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/9 (22%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 9 maps they lost, 2 (22%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HOTUAnubisled 4 · lost 13-16vs 100 ThievesInfernoled 3 · lost 6-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs UPGRADEMiragefrom 7 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HOTUAnubisled 4 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi44% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT44% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs Black PhoenixInferno13-16vs 3DMAXCache16-13vs WildcardInferno16-12vs HOTUAnubis13-16