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Predictions / INFINITE vs Inner Circle · match preview
INFINITE vs Inner Circle: CS2 match prediction · Logitech G Play Connect 2026
INFINITE
World #64 · 33-27
VS
2026-09-18 12:00 UTC
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
Inner Circle
World #24 · 39-30
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3
46%54%
31%
3.011.34Market · 2 books
69%The call
Inner Circle are favoured: our model gives them 54% against INFINITE. Bookmakers lean Inner Circle at 69%. Strength slightly favours Inner Circle, firepower slightly favours Inner Circle, head-to-head slightly favours INFINITE.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
INFINITEpullInner Circle
Team strength1558
163366/34 INN
Track record33–27
39–3054/46 INN
Recent formLLLWW
LWLLL54/46 INN
Roster rating0.99
1.1169/31 INN
Head-to-head1 maps
0 maps67/33 INF
Bookmakers imply 31% for INFINITE (3.01 / 1.34); we land 15 points higher at 46%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (115 maps of INFINITE, 162 of Inner Circle). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: INFINITE leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Inner Circle to beat INFINITE, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsINFINITE · avg 0.99 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Inner Circle · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawy★ | 1.12 | 84.5 | 75.1% | 54% | 1.2 |
| headtr1ck | 1.28 | 72.5 | 75.9% | 35% | 1.14 |
| cptkurtka023 | 0.97 | 73.1 | 72.3% | 62% | 1.12 |
| zeRRoFIX | 1.02 | 73.4 | 73.3% | 57% | 1.07 |
| onic | 0.89 | 66.2 | 71% | 53% | 1.01 |
Recent form
INFINITE
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
3DMAX#230-22-1
INFINITE vs 3DMAX
Sep 3LNuke7-13Cache16-19Inner Circle vs 3DMAX
Jan 15WAncient13-9Nuke13-16Dust213-6
HOTU#280-21-4
INFINITE vs HOTU
Jul 25LMirage9-13Anubis5-13
Ninjas in Pyjamas#290-22-1
INFINITE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Sep 10LAncient5-13Mirage9-13Inner Circle vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Sep 10WNuke9-13Dust213-11Mirage13-0
K27#412-01-2
INFINITE vs K27
Jul 23WNuke16-14Mirage13-11Inner Circle vs K27
Mar 19LAnubis9-13Dust213-7Mirage8-13
fnatic#420-22-1
INFINITE vs fnatic
Mar 30LAncient9-13Mirage10-13Inner Circle vs fnatic
Feb 26WAncient11-13Overpass13-8Dust213-10
FOKUS#432-03-7
INFINITE vs FOKUS
Jun 25WNuke13-4Mirage13-5
Nemesis#443-50-2
INFINITE vs Nemesis
Jul 24WMirage13-3Ancient5-13Inferno13-10Jul 22LMirage6-13Ancient13-10Inferno8-13Jun 16LMirage4-13Nuke7-13Inner Circle vs Nemesis
Jan 27LMirage16-19Nuke11-13
Virtus.pro#462-12-0
INFINITE vs Virtus.pro
Jun 14WMirage13-4Overpass8-13Dust213-5Inner Circle vs Virtus.pro
Jul 11WMirage13-9Dust213-9Map lab
Inner Circle55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Inner Circle 2-1
If the veto goes
INFINITE 45%how the series ends55% Inner Circle
23%2-024%
22%2-131%
INFINITE61%18-13vsInner Circle39%17-20
58%Win46%
61%CT55%
43%T52%
47%Pistol61%
90%Conv86%
INFINITE37%12-10vsInner Circle63%25-12
55%Win68%
56%CT56%
50%T55%
59%Pistol49%
73%Conv78%
INFINITE42%2-2vsInner Circle58%2-0
50%Win100%
67%CT63%
47%T50%
50%Pistol50%
100%Conv50%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
INFINITEMirageInner Circle
61%CT side55%
43%T side52%
47%Pistol61%
90%After win86%
18%After loss21%
INFINITEDust2Inner Circle
56%CT side56%
50%T side55%
59%Pistol49%
73%After win78%
22%After loss34%
INFINITECacheInner Circle
67%CT side63%
47%T side50%
50%Pistol50%
100%After win50%
50%After loss50%
Pistol rounds52% · 55% · Inner Circle win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 81% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol22% · 29% · Inner Circle fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, INFINITE vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapINFINN
AnubisINF ban33%1-253%8-7
InfernoINN ban54%7-6n/a0g
INFINITE on Inferno
W
Phantom13–712d agoL
Nuclear TigeRES4–1312d agoL
SPARTA4–132mo agoWNemesis13–102mo agoLNemesis8–132mo agoW
INOX Division13–113mo agoW
HAVU13–114mo agoL
Lilmix10–135mo agoInner Circle on Inferno
no recent maps
MirageINF pick58%18-1346%17-20
Dust2INN pick55%12-1068%25-12
NukeINF ban33%5-1048%10-11
AncientINN ban55%11-956%20-16
Cachedecider50%2-2100%2-0
Each team's usual first ban: INFINITE Anubis · Inner Circle Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
INFINITE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i27/58 (47%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 58 maps they won, 27 (47%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 47% of their wins were comebacks, not 47% of all games.vs FOKUSMiragefrom 8 downvs HAVUInfernofrom 7 downvs ex-RUBYAncientfrom 7 downvs K27Nukefrom 7 downvs K27Miragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/56 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 18 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs RebelsNukeled 9 · lost 14-16vs 3DMAXCacheled 8 · lost 16-19vs 1winDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs aimclubMirageled 5 · lost 7-13vs zajezdzaczeMirageled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FOKUSMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs RebelsNukeled 9 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs PrestigeOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeMirage14-16vs RebelsNuke14-16vs SPARTADust213-16vs K27Nuke16-14
Inner Circle
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/89 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 89 maps they won, 26 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs Eternal FireAncientfrom 6 downvs FaZeMiragefrom 6 downvs 9INEAncientfrom 6 downvs VitalityCachefrom 6 downvs CYBERSHOKEMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/72 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 72 maps they lost, 26 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs NemesisMirageled 6 · lost 16-19vs K27Anubisled 6 · lost 9-13vs Friendly CampersAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs AcendMirageled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Eternal FireAncientfrom 6 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs FAVBETNuke17-19vs NemesisMirage16-19vs 3DMAXNuke13-16vs WHITEBIRDOverpass16-13vs WHITEBIRDDust214-16