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Predictions / FaZe vs Nemiga · match preview
FaZe vs Nemiga: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 4
FaZe
World #13 · 23-28
VS
2026-10-01 17:30 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 4 · Best of 3 · ★
Nemiga
World #39 · 76-31
Stake Ranked Episode 4 · Best of 3 · ★
31%69%
70%
1.333.06Market · 2 books
30%The call · high confidence
Nemiga are favoured: our model gives them 69% against FaZe. Bookmakers lean FaZe at 70%. Strength clearly favours Nemiga, record slightly favours Nemiga, form clearly favours Nemiga, firepower clearly favours Nemiga.
Likely mapsNuke · Anubis · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FaZepullNemiga
Team strength1610
175578/22 NEM
Track record23–28
76–3166/34 NEM
Recent formLLLWW
WWWWW77/23 NEM
Roster rating1.13
1.1489/11 NEM
Bookmakers imply 70% for FaZe (1.33 / 3.06); we land 39 points lower at 31%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (119 maps of FaZe, 260 of Nemiga).
Bottom line: Nemiga to beat FaZe, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFaZe · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Nemiga · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
FaZe
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
G2#82-31-2
Inner Circle#240-22-0
FaZe vs Inner Circle
Apr 6LNuke9-13Mirage9-13Nemiga vs Inner Circle
Sep 9WAnubis13-10Ancient13-7
BIG#251-26-2
SINNERS#452-04-3
FaZe vs SINNERS
Jul 3WMirage13-7Ancient13-2
CYBERSHOKE#872-04-1
FaZe vs CYBERSHOKE
Apr 5WMirage13-9Dust213-7
illwill2-02-0
FaZe vs illwill
Apr 5WNuke13-9Mirage13-6Nemiga vs illwill
Jan 26WAnubis13-5Nuke13-10Map lab
Nemiga69%to win the Bo3 · most likely Nemiga 2-0
If the veto goes
FaZe 31%how the series ends69% Nemiga
6%2-044%
25%2-125%
FaZe50%11-7vsNemiga50%23-15
61%Win61%
62%CT54%
47%T48%
56%Pistol53%
74%Conv78%
FaZe12%2-7vsNemiga88%31-11
22%Win74%
30%CT62%
58%T54%
56%Pistol58%
90%Conv81%
FaZe50%6-2vsNemiga50%6-2
75%Win75%
61%CT57%
61%T55%
50%Pistol56%
88%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FaZeNukeNemiga
62%CT side54%
47%T side48%
56%Pistol53%
74%After win78%
6%After loss17%
FaZeAnubisNemiga
30%CT side62%
58%T side54%
56%Pistol58%
90%After win81%
38%After loss14%
FaZeCacheNemiga
61%CT side57%
61%T side55%
50%Pistol56%
88%After win100%
25%After loss0%
Pistol rounds54% · 56% · level, no edge
After a won pistol81% · 81% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol19% · 14% · FaZe fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FaZe vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFAZNEM
InfernoFAZ ban0%0-6100%2-0
MirageNEM ban59%13-967%24-12
NukeFAZ pick61%11-761%23-15
AnubisNEM pick22%2-774%31-11
AncientFAZ ban44%11-1460%33-22
Dust2NEM ban55%12-1057%26-20
Each team's usual first ban: FaZe Inferno · Nemiga Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
FaZe
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i19/58 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 58 maps they won, 19 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs The MongolZNukefrom 9 downvs paiNDust2from 6 downvs aimclubOverpassfrom 6 downvs DramaNukefrom 6 downvs FalconsDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/60 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 60 maps they lost, 20 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PARIVISIONAncientled 7 · lost 11-13vs Inner CircleMirageled 6 · lost 9-13vs Passion UADust2led 5 · lost 14-16vs Natus VincereAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs 9zOverpassled 5 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The MongolZNukefrom 9 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PARIVISIONAncientled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs paiNNuke13-16vs paiNDust216-13vs AstralisInferno14-16vs Passion UANuke16-12vs Passion UADust214-16
Nemiga
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i50/166 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 166 maps they won, 50 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs OramondOverpassfrom 10 downvs HOTUCachefrom 9 downvs MetizportMiragefrom 8 downvs BET-MAnubisfrom 7 downvs ex-RUBYAncientfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/88 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 88 maps they lost, 24 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs HOTUCacheled 8 · lost 9-13vs 1winMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs HOTUAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs ARCREDAncientled 5 · lost 12-16vs WWDust2led 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs OramondOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs HOTUCacheled 8 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 32Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 32 went to overtime.vs KOLESIEDust216-14vs ARCREDAncient12-16vs K27Anubis12-16vs mix52Nuke20-22vs GoodGame ClubOverpass16-14