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Predictions / Honvéd vs ENCE · match preview
Honvéd vs ENCE: CS2 match prediction · Exort Fiesta Series 2
Honvéd
World #129 · 29-28
VS
2026-09-16 17:00 UTC
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
ENCE
World #120 · 31-29
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
56%44%
The call
Honvéd are favoured: our model gives them 56% against ENCE. No odds yet. Form slightly favours Honvéd, firepower slightly favours Honvéd.
Likely mapsMirage · Anubis · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
HonvédpullENCE
Team strength1490
148651/49 HON
Track record29–28
31–2953/47 ENC
Recent formWLWWW
WLLWL59/41 HON
Roster rating1.11
1.0962/38 HON
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 97% our own signal (135 maps of Honvéd, 131 of ENCE).
Bottom line: Honvéd to beat ENCE, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsHonvéd · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.22iStar gap: the best player rates 0.22 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ENCE · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.03iStar gap: the best player rates 0.03 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Honvéd
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Falcons Force#1311-24-1
Honvéd vs Falcons Force
Aug 20LMirage10-13Ancient13-11Cache8-13
Noir Verse#1462-41-2
ENCE vs Noir Verse
Aug 19LNuke13-9Mirage6-13Anubis2-13
Entropy#1584-73-3
Honvéd vs Entropy
Aug 18WMirage13-5Ancient8-13Inferno13-4Jul 19Lseries0-2Jul 19LDust213-9Mirage3-13Ancient5-13+1 earlier meeting
SPARTA0-40-4
brazylijski luz2-02-4
Honvéd vs brazylijski luz
May 27WMirage13-10Ancient19-17
Atreides2-01-4
Honvéd vs Atreides
Aug 30WDust213-5Ancient13-11
CYBERSHOKE Prospects0-21-2
Honvéd vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects
Jul 24LDust210-13Ancient5-13ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects
May 26LInferno7-13Nuke13-8Ancient11-13MAIMai Tai2-02-1
Honvéd vs Mai Tai
Jul 22WDust213-11Mirage13-8ENCE vs Mai Tai
Aug 18WNuke13-4Ancient8-13Anubis16-14Map lab
ENCE60%to win the Bo3 · most likely ENCE 2-1
If the veto goes
Honvéd 40%how the series ends60% ENCE
23%2-027%
17%2-133%
Honvéd46%18-18vsENCE54%18-15
50%Win55%
56%CT54%
41%T51%
58%Pistol55%
79%Conv85%
Honvéd51%4-3vsENCE49%10-8
57%Win56%
51%CT52%
50%T52%
64%Pistol44%
89%Conv81%
Honvéd33%4-9vsENCE67%5-5
31%Win50%
41%CT43%
53%T53%
46%Pistol60%
83%Conv75%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
HonvédMirageENCE
56%CT side54%
41%T side51%
58%Pistol55%
79%After win85%
10%After loss7%
HonvédAnubisENCE
51%CT side52%
50%T side52%
64%Pistol44%
89%After win81%
40%After loss5%
HonvédInfernoENCE
41%CT side43%
53%T side53%
46%Pistol60%
83%After win75%
29%After loss13%
Pistol rounds56% · 52% · Honvéd win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol81% · 82% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol18% · 7% · Honvéd fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Honvéd vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapHONENC
NukeHON ban60%3-263%15-9
Dust2ENC ban54%21-1836%4-7
MirageHON pick50%18-1855%18-15
AnubisENC pick57%4-356%10-8
CacheHON ban36%4-757%4-3
AncientENC ban53%9-837%7-12
Infernodecider31%4-950%5-5
Each team's usual first ban: Honvéd Nuke · ENCE Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Honvéd
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i20/63 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 63 maps they won, 20 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 downvs The Last ResortInfernofrom 8 downvs brazylijski luzMiragefrom 6 downvs PrivateerNukefrom 6 downvs Noir VerseDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/68 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 23 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13vs BebopCacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs ex-MANADust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs MisaMirageled 6 · lost 8-13vs TeletubisieDust2led 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs PUREDust216-14vs brazylijski luzAncient19-17vs TNCAncient15-19vs ex-MANAMirage13-16vs GenOneDust213-16
ENCE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/67 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 67 maps they won, 21 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs EntropyAncientfrom 7 downvs eLITenergyNukefrom 5 downvs fnaticAncientfrom 5 downvs 100 ThievesAnubisfrom 5 downvs AllianceOverpassfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/64 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 64 maps they lost, 24 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs fnaticOverpassled 10 · lost 14-16vs WBTNukeled 8 · lost 8-13vs illwillMirageled 7 · lost 13-16vs illwillAnubisled 6 · lost 9-13vs JiJieHaoOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs EntropyAncientfrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs fnaticOverpassled 10 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 15Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 15 went to overtime.vs PARIVISIONAnubis20-22vs fnaticAncient19-17vs illwillMirage13-16vs CYBERSHOKEDust213-16vs fnaticOverpass14-16