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Predictions / MOUZ vs Natus Vincere · match preview
MOUZ vs Natus Vincere: CS2 match prediction · Logitech G Play Connect 2026
MOUZ
World #3 · 37-21
VS
2026-09-18 10:00 UTC
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★
Natus Vincere
World #10 · 30-20
Logitech G Play Connect 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★
76%24%
63%
1.52.6Market · 27 books
37%The call · high confidence
MOUZ are favoured: our model gives them 76% against Natus Vincere. Bookmakers lean MOUZ at 63%. Strength slightly favours MOUZ, form slightly favours MOUZ, firepower clearly favours MOUZ, head-to-head clearly favours MOUZ.
Likely mapsMirage · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MOUZpullNatus Vincere
Team strength1713
162868/32 MOU
Track record37–21
30–2054/46 MOU
Recent formLLWWW
LLWLL62/38 MOU
Roster rating1.12
1.188/12 MOU
Head-to-head4 maps
1 maps71/29 MOU
Bookmakers imply 63% for MOUZ (1.5 / 2.6); we land 13 points higher at 76%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (141 maps of MOUZ, 128 of Natus Vincere). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: MOUZ leads 2–0.
Bottom line: MOUZ to beat Natus Vincere, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMOUZ · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Natus Vincere · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
MOUZ
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents7mo ago MOUZ2 : 1 Natus Vincere!7mo ago MOUZ2 : 0 Natus Vincere!
MOUZ2 : 1 Natus Vincere!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ
outBrollan, Jimpphat
inPR, xelex
MOUZ2 : 0 Natus Vincere!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ
outBrollan, Jimpphat
inPR, xelex
Spirit#14-100-4
MOUZ vs Spirit
Sep 6LDust28-13Mirage13-11Ancient3-13Nuke6-13Aug 2WDust213-8Mirage13-4Ancient9-13Nuke13-10May 16LDust23-13Nuke2-13+2 earlier meetings
Falcons#25-33-3
FURIA#41-42-4
Vitality#53-62-9
MOUZ vs Vitality
Sep 5WDust213-11Mirage13-7Jun 13LMirage9-13Dust213-7Inferno4-13Feb 16LDust25-13Inferno8-13+1 earlier meeting
Natus Vincere vs Vitality
May 16WDust211-13Anubis13-11Inferno13-3May 3LNuke12-16Anubis11-13Dust23-13Apr 17LMirage4-13Dust26-13+1 earlier meeting
Legacy#64-13-6
Natus Vincere vs Legacy
Aug 20LInferno9-13Ancient2-13Jun 12WInferno13-4Ancient13-10May 14LInferno11-13Ancient13-8Dust26-13+1 earlier meeting
FUT#75-82-1
MOUZ vs FUT
Aug 21LDust213-16Ancient5-13Aug 14LAncient6-13Nuke16-12Mirage11-13Jun 14LAncient11-13Nuke13-10Mirage7-13+2 earlier meetings
Natus Vincere vs FUT
Mar 14WMirage13-5Ancient11-13Dust213-7
G2#84-14-6
Natus Vincere vs G2
Aug 30LAncient6-13Inferno10-13Jun 15LDust213-11Inferno14-16Mirage10-13Mar 7LDust213-7Mirage5-13Ancient7-13+1 earlier meeting
Aurora#96-29-5
MOUZ vs Aurora
May 15WDust213-11Nuke13-8May 12WDust214-16Dust213-11Nuke19-15Apr 14WDust213-4Mirage13-8+1 earlier meeting
Natus Vincere vs Aurora
Sep 17LNuke8-13Mirage7-13Apr 15WInferno13-4Mirage11-13Dust213-4Mar 23WAnubis13-8Nuke13-10+2 earlier meetings
Map lab
Natus Vincere51%to win the Bo3 · most likely MOUZ 2-1
If the veto goes
MOUZ 49%how the series ends51% Natus Vincere
20%2-023%
29%2-129%
MOUZ68%21-8vsNatus Vincere32%17-15
72%Win53%
62%CT58%
53%T47%
47%Pistol50%
85%Conv88%
MOUZ29%8-11vsNatus Vincere71%14-7
42%Win67%
57%CT59%
44%T47%
42%Pistol43%
88%Conv82%
MOUZ50%1-1thinNatus Vincere50%0-0
50%Win–
71%CT–
41%T–
25%Pistol–
100%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MOUZMirageNatus Vincere
62%CT side58%
53%T side47%
47%Pistol50%
85%After win88%
29%After loss16%
MOUZAncientNatus Vincere
57%CT side59%
44%T side47%
42%Pistol43%
88%After win82%
32%After loss21%
MOUZCacheNatus Vincere
71%CT side–
41%T side–
25%Pistol–
100%After win–
33%After loss–
Pistol rounds44% · 47% · Natus Vincere win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol86% · 86% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol30% · 18% · MOUZ fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MOUZ vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Natus Vincere habitually bans Overpass, MOUZ's strongest maps (Inferno, Mirage, Overpass all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Overpass 42/50), not an opponent read, so expect MOUZ to fight the veto for Mirage.
MapMOUNAT
AnubisMOU bann/a0g54%7-6
MOUZ on Anubis
no recent maps
NukeNAT ban59%13-958%7-5
MirageMOU pick72%21-853%17-15
AncientNAT pick42%8-1167%14-7
Dust2MOU ban44%15-1952%14-13
InfernoNAT ban67%16-852%12-11
Cachedecider50%1-1n/a0g
Natus Vincere on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: MOUZ Anubis · Natus Vincere Overpass.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MOUZ
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/84 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 84 maps they won, 30 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 downvs Inner CircleAncientfrom 9 downvs GamerLegionNukefrom 8 downvs NRGInfernofrom 8 downvs SpiritMiragefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/57 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 57 maps they lost, 17 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16vs FUTDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Natus VincereAncientled 5 · lost 10-13vs 9zAncientled 5 · lost 9-13vs FUTDust2led 5 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs FalconsInferno16-14vs FalconsDust219-17vs G2Overpass16-13vs FUTOverpass16-14vs AstralisAncient14-16
Natus Vincere
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/71 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 71 maps they won, 23 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs G2Ancientfrom 8 downvs paiNMiragefrom 8 downvs Passion UAAnubisfrom 6 downvs The MongolZAncientfrom 6 downvs MOUZAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/57 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 57 maps they lost, 14 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs VitalityNukeled 11 · lost 12-16vs FURIANukeled 7 · lost 13-16vs The MongolZMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs FUTAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs FalconsAnubisled 5 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2Ancientfrom 8 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs VitalityNukeled 11 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 12Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 12 went to overtime.vs PARIVISIONAnubis16-19vs SpiritMirage14-16vs AuroraInferno16-12vs B8Ancient17-19vs B8Mirage16-14