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Predictions / magic vs MIBR · match preview
magic vs MIBR: CS2 match prediction · StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026
magic
World #17 · 45-24
VS
2026-09-18 12:30 UTC
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
MIBR
World #18 · 47-24
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
52%48%
31%
3.11.37Market · 26 books
69%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 52–48. Bookmakers lean MIBR at 69%. Every factor is level between the two sides.
Likely mapsAncient · Inferno · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
magicpullMIBR
Team strength1648
165752/48 MIB
Track record45–24
47–2452/48 MIB
Recent formLLWWL
LLWLW54/46 MAG
Roster rating1.06
1.1255/45 MIB
Bookmakers imply 31% for magic (3.1 / 1.37); we land 21 points higher at 52%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (162 maps of magic, 157 of MIBR).
Bottom line: magic to beat MIBR, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsmagic · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
MIBR · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.19iStar gap: the best player rates 0.19 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
magic
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
MOUZ#30-20-2
magic vs MOUZ
May 17LMirage2-13Inferno7-13MIBR vs MOUZ
May 24LOverpass3-13Ancient1-13
Legacy#61-26-10
magic vs Legacy
Sep 8LAncient7-13Dust213-7Mirage14-16MIBR vs Legacy
Sep 12LNuke10-13Ancient13-11Inferno14-16Aug 16LNuke11-13Inferno8-13Jun 6WNuke13-8+4 earlier meetings
FaZe#134-21-0
MIBR vs FaZe
Jul 2WAncient13-6
9z#144-26-3
MIBR vs 9z
Sep 9WMirage13-6Nuke13-7Jul 5LNuke10-13Mirage13-16Feb 1WNuke16-14Inferno16-13+1 earlier meeting
The MongolZ#150-32-1
MIBR vs The MongolZ
Sep 8WAncient5-13Mirage13-10Inferno16-12
PARIVISION#192-03-2
magic vs PARIVISION
Sep 10WAncient13-11Inferno16-14
Alliance#210-22-0
magic vs Alliance
Sep 10LAncient13-16Inferno7-13MIBR vs Alliance
Sep 11WInferno13-4Cache13-9Map lab
MIBR56%to win the Bo3 · most likely MIBR 2-1
If the veto goes
magic 44%how the series ends56% MIBR
25%2-025%
20%2-131%
magic55%27-14vsMIBR45%16-10
66%Win62%
50%CT52%
57%T50%
46%Pistol60%
84%Conv94%
magic45%11-6vsMIBR55%26-12
65%Win68%
56%CT55%
44%T57%
50%Pistol58%
94%Conv75%
magic39%20-18vsMIBR61%20-11
53%Win65%
58%CT67%
45%T47%
51%Pistol58%
77%Conv83%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
magicAncientMIBR
50%CT side52%
57%T side50%
46%Pistol60%
84%After win94%
25%After loss43%
magicInfernoMIBR
56%CT side55%
44%T side57%
50%Pistol58%
94%After win75%
24%After loss13%
magicMirageMIBR
58%CT side67%
45%T side47%
51%Pistol58%
77%After win83%
27%After loss27%
Pistol rounds49% · 58% · MIBR win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 83% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol26% · 25% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, magic vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMAGMIB
NukeMAG bann/a0g58%18-13
magic on Nuke
no recent maps
Dust2MIB ban55%17-140%0-1
AncientMAG pick66%27-1462%16-10
InfernoMIB pick65%11-668%26-12
AnubisMAG ban67%10-585%11-2
CacheMIB ban86%6-167%4-2
Miragedecider53%20-1865%20-11
Each team's usual first ban: magic Nuke · MIBR Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
magic
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i37/100 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 100 maps they won, 37 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs Gentle MatesMiragefrom 9 downvs EACAncientfrom 8 downvs Gentle MatesMiragefrom 8 downvs ECSTATICMiragefrom 7 downvs Nuclear TigeRESMiragefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/62 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 62 maps they lost, 18 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BetBoomMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs The MongolZMirageled 7 · lost 23-25vs BIGOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13vs ECSTATICOverpassled 5 · lost 8-13vs Ninjas in PyjamasMirageled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Gentle MatesMiragefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BetBoomMirageled 7 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 26Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 26 went to overtime.vs Fingers CrossedDust220-22vs BetBoomMirage12-16vs WHITEBIRDAncient16-14vs ECSTATICMirage16-13vs ECSTATICAncient14-16
MIBR
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i31/100 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 100 maps they won, 31 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs GalorysMiragefrom 9 downvs Gaimin GladiatorsAnubisfrom 8 downvs Bounty HuntersAnubisfrom 6 downvs BC.GameAnubisfrom 6 downvs RED CanidsAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/57 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 57 maps they lost, 21 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs RED CanidsInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs LegacyMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs Eternal FireAncientled 6 · lost 16-19vs Eternal FireMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs BETBOOMAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GalorysMiragefrom 9 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs RED CanidsInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs LegacyAncient22-20vs RED CanidsAncient19-16vs 9zNuke16-14vs 9zInferno16-13vs GalorysNuke16-13