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Predictions / MIBR vs FURIA · match preview
MIBR vs FURIA: CS2 match prediction · StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026
MIBR
World #18 · 49-24
VS
2026-09-19 17:30 UTC
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★
FURIA
World #4 · 36-25
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★★
56%44%
32%
2.951.4Market · 27 books
68%The call
MIBR are favoured: our model gives them 56% against FURIA. Bookmakers lean FURIA at 68%. Record slightly favours MIBR, firepower slightly favours MIBR, head-to-head slightly favours FURIA.
Likely mapsInferno · Mirage · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MIBRpullFURIA
Team strength1679
165356/44 MIB
Track record49–24
36–2560/40 MIB
Recent formWWLLW
WLWLL55/45 MIB
Roster rating1.14
1.163/37 MIB
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 FUR
Bookmakers imply 32% for MIBR (2.95 / 1.4); we land 24 points higher at 56%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (162 maps of MIBR, 157 of FURIA). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: FURIA leads 1–0.
Bottom line: MIBR to beat FURIA, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMIBR · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.18iStar gap: the best player rates 0.18 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
FURIA · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit#10-13-5
MOUZ#30-26-2
Legacy#66-101-4
MIBR vs Legacy
Sep 12LNuke10-13Ancient13-11Inferno14-16Aug 16LNuke11-13Inferno8-13Jun 6WNuke13-8+4 earlier meetings
Astralis#110-33-3
FaZe#131-01-2
MIBR vs FaZe
Jul 2WAncient13-6FURIA vs FaZe
Apr 30LDust24-13Mirage13-7Nuke3-13
9z#146-34-2
MIBR vs 9z
Sep 9WMirage13-6Nuke13-7Jul 5LNuke10-13Mirage13-16Feb 1WNuke16-14Inferno16-13+1 earlier meeting
The MongolZ#152-13-3
MIBR vs The MongolZ
Sep 8WAncient5-13Mirage13-10Inferno16-12
Map lab
MIBR70%to win the Bo3 · most likely MIBR 2-0
If the veto goes
MIBR 70%how the series ends30% FURIA
39%2-014%
31%2-116%
MIBR65%28-12vsFURIA35%12-10
70%Win55%
56%CT56%
58%T47%
58%Pistol55%
76%Conv71%
MIBR59%20-12vsFURIA41%20-18
63%Win53%
67%CT58%
47%T44%
58%Pistol47%
81%Conv72%
MIBR67%5-2vsFURIA33%4-4
71%Win50%
61%CT48%
42%T56%
43%Pistol50%
83%Conv88%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MIBRInfernoFURIA
56%CT side56%
58%T side47%
58%Pistol55%
76%After win71%
12%After loss15%
MIBRMirageFURIA
67%CT side58%
47%T side44%
58%Pistol47%
81%After win72%
26%After loss28%
MIBRCacheFURIA
61%CT side48%
42%T side56%
43%Pistol50%
83%After win88%
13%After loss13%
Pistol rounds56% · 50% · MIBR win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol78% · 74% · MIBR keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol17% · 22% · FURIA fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MIBR vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
FURIA habitually bans Anubis & Ancient, two of MIBR's strongest maps (Inferno, Mirage, Anubis, Ancient, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 31/61, Ancient 45/61), not an opponent read, so expect MIBR to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapMIBFUR
Dust2MIB ban0%0-156%19-15
AncientFUR ban63%17-1044%4-5
InfernoMIB pick70%28-1255%12-10
MirageFUR pick63%20-1253%20-18
NukeMIB ban58%18-1363%15-9
AnubisFUR ban85%11-243%3-4
Cachedecider71%5-250%4-4
Each team's usual first ban: MIBR Dust2 · FURIA Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MIBR
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/104 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 104 maps they won, 34 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs GalorysMiragefrom 9 downvs Gaimin GladiatorsAnubisfrom 8 downvs magicAncientfrom 7 downvs Bounty HuntersAnubisfrom 6 downvs BC.GameAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/58 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 58 maps they lost, 21 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs RED CanidsInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs LegacyMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs Eternal FireAncientled 6 · lost 16-19vs Eternal FireMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs BETBOOMAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GalorysMiragefrom 9 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs RED CanidsInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs LegacyAncient22-20vs RED CanidsAncient19-16vs 9zNuke16-14vs 9zInferno16-13vs GalorysNuke16-13
FURIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/85 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 85 maps they won, 23 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs G2Ancientfrom 10 downvs VitalityMiragefrom 7 downvs The MongolZDust2from 7 downvs Natus VincereNukefrom 7 downvs AuroraMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/72 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 72 maps they lost, 25 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs G2Anubisled 10 · lost 3-13vs AuroraDust2led 6 · lost 14-16vs FalconsNukeled 6 · lost 10-13vs VitalityOverpassled 6 · lost 10-13vs SpiritMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2Ancientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs G2Anubisled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs The MongolZInferno16-12vs SpiritMirage16-13vs FUTOverpass22-18vs FalconsMirage16-14vs PARIVISIONDust216-14