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Predictions / regain vs Marsborne · match preview
regain vs Marsborne: CS2 match prediction · CROSSFIRE Season 6
regain
World #168 · 32-23
VS
2026-09-26 00:00 UTC
CROSSFIRE Season 6 · Best of 3
Marsborne
World #91 · 47-30
CROSSFIRE Season 6 · Best of 3
36%64%
21%
4.331.17Market · 2 books
79%The call
Marsborne are favoured: our model gives them 64% against regain. Bookmakers lean Marsborne at 79%. Strength slightly favours Marsborne, record slightly favours Marsborne, firepower slightly favours Marsborne, head-to-head slightly favours Marsborne.
Likely mapsInferno · Anubis · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
regainpullMarsborne
Team strength1548
163568/32 MAR
Track record32–23
47–3058/42 MAR
Recent formWWLWWWWWLL50/50
Roster rating1.12
1.1459/41 MAR
Head-to-head2 maps
5 maps67/33 MAR
Bookmakers imply 21% for regain (4.33 / 1.17); we land 15 points higher at 36%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (125 maps of regain, 178 of Marsborne). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Marsborne leads 2–1.
Bottom line: Marsborne to beat regain, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsregain · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Marsborne · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
regain
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2mo ago
regain0 : 2
Marsborne!2mo ago regain2 : 1 Marsborne!8mo ago regain0 : 2 Marsborne!
regain0 : 2 Marsborne!⚠ Different lineup
regain
outH0NeST
infuzenko
regain2 : 1 Marsborne!⚠ Different lineup
regain
outH0NeST
infuzenko
regain0 : 2 Marsborne!⚠ Different lineup
regain
outmarekiew
ingrape
Marsborne
outCxzi, WolfY, chop, motm
inWUMBO, freshie, nicx, ogwizard
M80#260-22-1
regain vs M80
Jan 10LAncient1-13Mirage6-13Marsborne vs M80
Apr 26WMirage5-13Ancient13-9Anubis13-8
SportsBetExpert#690-24-4
regain vs SportsBetExpert
Feb 5LInferno7-13Dust27-13Marsborne vs SportsBetExpert
Aug 2LNuke6-13Anubis4-13May 31WInferno13-9Mirage13-8May 24LInferno10-13Anubis2-13+1 earlier meeting
Voca#840-68-14
Marsborne vs Voca
Sep 2LNuke22-20Dust25-13Ancient5-13Aug 31LAncient6-13Dust211-13Apr 26WDust24-13Overpass16-14Mirage13-3+5 earlier meetings
LAG#940-26-0
regain vs LAG
Sep 11LInferno8-13Dust23-13
Without a Roof#962-21-4
Marsborne vs Without a Roof
Sep 12LAncient14-16Inferno11-13Sep 10LAncient9-13Inferno6-13Sep 5WInferno13-4FORFor Fun#1411-22-1
regain vs For Fun
Aug 30LDust213-5Inferno10-13Mirage3-13Marsborne vs For Fun
Sep 13WNuke11-13Inferno13-6Dust225-22
Chicken Coop#1915-34-5
FARFarmVille#1934-51-0
regain vs FarmVille
Sep 5LMirage10-13May 1WInferno6-13Ancient13-5Dust216-14Apr 9WInferno16-19Ancient13-10Anubis13-10+1 earlier meeting
Marsborne vs FarmVille
Sep 4Wseries13-6Map lab
Marsborne57%to win the Bo3 · most likely Marsborne 2-0
If the veto goes
regain 43%how the series ends57% Marsborne
17%2-034%
25%2-124%
regain38%19-14vsMarsborne62%29-13
58%Win69%
51%CT63%
57%T51%
42%Pistol62%
71%Conv77%
regain45%5-1vsMarsborne55%17-4
83%Win81%
55%CT58%
68%T61%
67%Pistol40%
88%Conv100%
regain52%16-11vsMarsborne48%20-15
59%Win57%
52%CT59%
52%T47%
50%Pistol60%
81%Conv79%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
regainInfernoMarsborne
51%CT side63%
57%T side51%
42%Pistol62%
71%After win77%
8%After loss25%
regainAnubisMarsborne
55%CT side58%
68%T side61%
67%Pistol40%
88%After win100%
0%After loss40%
regainAncientMarsborne
52%CT side59%
52%T side47%
50%Pistol60%
81%After win79%
7%After loss7%
Pistol rounds48% · 57% · Marsborne win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol78% · 81% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol7% · 24% · Marsborne fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, regain vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapREGMAR
NukeREG bann/a0g47%8-9
regain on Nuke
no recent maps
CacheMAR ban100%1-00%0-1
regain on Cache
WMarsborne13–52mo agoMarsborne on Cache
Lregain5–132mo agoInfernoREG pick58%19-1469%29-13
AnubisMAR pick83%5-181%17-4
MirageREG ban40%12-1868%19-9
Dust2MAR ban50%11-1157%8-6
Ancientdecider59%16-1157%20-15
Each team's usual first ban: regain Nuke · Marsborne Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
regain
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i24/67 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 67 maps they won, 24 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs FarmVilleDust2from 10 downvs FarmVilleAncientfrom 6 downvs BabagInfernofrom 6 downvs ZomblersInfernofrom 5 downvs AkimboInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/58 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 58 maps they lost, 19 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NuToriousMirageled 8 · lost 13-16vs Club 333Infernoled 7 · lost 13-16vs SkylineAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs MarsborneMirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs FarmVilleInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FarmVilleDust2from 10 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NuToriousMirageled 8 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs BlitzkriegDust216-12vs Outfit 49Dust222-19vs ZomblersDust221-25vs F5Inferno13-16vs FarmVilleInferno16-19
Marsborne
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/108 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 108 maps they won, 40 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 downvs Chicken CoopAncientfrom 10 downvs 9zAncientfrom 6 downvs LAGMiragefrom 6 downvs Chicken CoopDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/69 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 69 maps they lost, 26 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13vs SportsBetExpertAnubisled 9 · lost 4-13vs NRGMirageled 6 · lost 17-19vs ZomblersAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs GalorysOverpassled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs NRGMirage19-22vs NRGMirage17-19vs BESTIAAncient16-19vs VocaOverpass14-16vs Fake do BiruInferno19-17