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Predictions / Sementes do Mal vs QUINTESSÊNCIA · match preview
Sementes do Mal vs QUINTESSÊNCIA: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3
SEMQUI
Sementes do Mal
World #– · 0-4
VS
2026-09-18 23:45 UTC
CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3 · Best of 3
QUINTESSÊNCIA
World #159 · 4-5
CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3 · Best of 3
40%60%
The call
QUINTESSÊNCIA are favoured: our model gives them 60% against Sementes do Mal. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA, record clearly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA, form clearly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA, firepower clearly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA.
Likely mapsCache · Inferno · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Sementes do MalpullQUINTESSÊNCIA
Team strength1437
149863/37 QUI
Track record0–4
4–590/10 QUI
Recent formLLLL
LLWWW80/20 QUI
Roster rating0.82
1.0298/2 QUI
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 68% our own signal (8 maps of Sementes do Mal, 20 of QUINTESSÊNCIA).
Bottom line: QUINTESSÊNCIA to beat Sementes do Mal, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsSementes do Mal · avg 0.82 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
QUINTESSÊNCIA · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.18iStar gap: the best player rates 0.18 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FasteR★ | 1.2 | 77.6 | 76.2% | 59% | 1.2 |
| edv | 1.13 | 72.9 | 73% | 30% | 1.06 |
| prozinszsz | 0.86 | 71.9 | 68.9% | 49% | 1 |
| cz1k4 | 0.86 | 60.3 | 68.7% | 57% | 0.97 |
| n0page | 0.68 | 62 | 68.4% | 45% | 0.85 |
Recent form
Sementes do Mal
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
QUINTESSÊNCIA61%to win the Bo3 · most likely QUINTESSÊNCIA 2-0
If the veto goes
Sementes do Mal 39%how the series ends61% QUINTESSÊNCIA
17%2-035%
23%2-126%
Sementes do Mal38%0-2vsQUINTESSÊNCIA62%3-1
0%Win75%
58%CT40%
25%T60%
50%Pistol50%
100%Conv50%
Sementes do Mal44%0-1vsQUINTESSÊNCIA56%2-0
0%Win100%
25%CT63%
43%T48%
50%Pistol50%
100%Conv50%
Sementes do Mal47%0-2vsQUINTESSÊNCIA53%1-3
0%Win25%
40%CT32%
19%T39%
0%Pistol38%
–Conv67%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Sementes do MalCacheQUINTESSÊNCIA
58%CT side40%
25%T side60%
50%Pistol50%
100%After win50%
50%After loss0%
Sementes do MalInfernoQUINTESSÊNCIA
25%CT side63%
43%T side48%
50%Pistol50%
100%After win50%
0%After loss0%
Sementes do MalMirageQUINTESSÊNCIA
40%CT side32%
19%T side39%
0%Pistol38%
–After win67%
25%After loss20%
Pistol rounds30% · 45% · QUINTESSÊNCIA win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol100% · 56% · Sementes do Mal keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol29% · 9% · Sementes do Mal fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Sementes do Mal vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapSEMQUI
NukeSEM bann/a0gn/a0g
Sementes do Mal on Nuke
no recent maps
QUINTESSÊNCIA on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisQUI bann/a0g0%0-1
Sementes do Mal on Anubis
no recent maps
QUINTESSÊNCIA on Anubis
L
paiN Academy4–131mo agoCacheSEM pick0%0-275%3-1
InfernoQUI pick0%0-1100%2-0
Sementes do Mal on Inferno
L
Grêmio6–1323d agoDust2SEM ban0%0-150%3-3
Sementes do Mal on Dust2
LMansão Maromba9–1318d agoAncientQUI bann/a0g33%1-2
Sementes do Mal on Ancient
no recent maps
Miragedecider0%0-225%1-3
QUINTESSÊNCIA on Mirage
L
Bounty Hunters4–1313d agoL
ALKA7–131mo agoW
METANOIA Wolves13–111mo agoLUNO MILLE4–135mo agoEach team's usual first ban: Sementes do Mal Nuke · QUINTESSÊNCIA Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Sementes do Mal
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i0/0 (0%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 0 maps they won, 0 (0%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 0% of their wins were comebacks, not 0% of all games.none in the sample
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/6 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 6 maps they lost, 2 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Mansão MarombaDust2led 4 · lost 9-13vs RUSHMirageled 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 0 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.none in the sample
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Mansão MarombaDust2led 4 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi17% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT17% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
QUINTESSÊNCIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/10 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 10 maps they won, 4 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs PugdesonestoInfernofrom 6 downvs METANOIA WolvesMiragefrom 4 downvs PugdesonestoCachefrom 3 downvs ALKACachefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/10 (10%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 10 maps they lost, 1 (10%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UNO MILLEDust2led 4 · lost 17-19
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PugdesonestoInfernofrom 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UNO MILLEDust2led 4 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi45% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT45% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs UNO MILLEDust217-19