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Predictions / MEIA NOITE vs QUINTESSÊNCIA · match preview
MEIA NOITE vs QUINTESSÊNCIA: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3
MEIQUI
MEIA NOITE
World #– · 4-9
VS
2026-09-19 23:45 UTC
CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3 · Best of 3
QUINTESSÊNCIA
World #159 · 5-5
CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3 · Best of 3
42%58%
51%
1.791.87Market · 4 books
49%The call
QUINTESSÊNCIA are favoured: our model gives them 58% against MEIA NOITE. Bookmakers lean MEIA NOITE at 51%. Strength slightly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA, record slightly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA, form slightly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA, firepower clearly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA.
Likely mapsMirage · Cache · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MEIA NOITEpullQUINTESSÊNCIA
Team strength1452
151162/38 QUI
Track record4–9
5–564/36 QUI
Recent formLWLLW
WLLWW59/41 QUI
Roster rating1.01
1.2190/10 QUI
Bookmakers imply 51% for MEIA NOITE (1.79 / 1.87); we land 9 points lower at 42%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 84% our own signal (31 maps of MEIA NOITE, 22 of QUINTESSÊNCIA).
Bottom line: QUINTESSÊNCIA to beat MEIA NOITE, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMEIA NOITE · avg 1.01 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
QUINTESSÊNCIA · avg 1.21 · star gap +0.85iStar gap: the best player rates 0.85 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fl4sh★ | 2.11 | 121.9 | 82.7% | 50% | 2.06 |
| edv | 1.2 | 74.2 | 73.5% | 32% | 1.1 |
| prozinszsz | 0.87 | 72.1 | 70.9% | 48% | 1.02 |
| cz1k4 | 0.89 | 61.6 | 69.4% | 56% | 0.98 |
| n0page | 0.72 | 64.6 | 70.1% | 46% | 0.9 |
Recent form
MEIA NOITE
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Bounty Hunters#1380-41-2
QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Bounty Hunters
Sep 5LCache6-13Dust213-2Mirage4-13
METANOIA Wolves#2253-22-0
QUINTESSÊNCIA vs METANOIA Wolves
Aug 16WMirage13-11Dust213-11
paiN Academy1-22-1
MEIA NOITE vs paiN Academy
Aug 6LMirage8-13Inferno13-2Cache11-13QUINTESSÊNCIA vs paiN Academy
Aug 16WCache13-10Anubis4-13Dust213-8SEMSementes do Mal2-02-0
MEIA NOITE vs Sementes do Mal
Aug 27Wseries2-0QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Sementes do Mal
Sep 19WCache13-5Mirage13-3Map lab
QUINTESSÊNCIA60%to win the Bo3 · most likely QUINTESSÊNCIA 2-0
If the veto goes
MEIA NOITE 40%how the series ends60% QUINTESSÊNCIA
13%2-039%
27%2-121%
MEIA NOITE44%3-6vsQUINTESSÊNCIA56%2-3
33%Win40%
49%CT34%
43%T51%
50%Pistol40%
89%Conv75%
MEIA NOITE30%0-3vsQUINTESSÊNCIA70%4-1
0%Win80%
39%CT46%
26%T63%
17%Pistol60%
100%Conv67%
MEIA NOITE56%3-2vsQUINTESSÊNCIA44%3-3
60%Win50%
42%CT61%
47%T43%
50%Pistol58%
80%Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MEIA NOITEMirageQUINTESSÊNCIA
49%CT side34%
43%T side51%
50%Pistol40%
89%After win75%
22%After loss17%
MEIA NOITECacheQUINTESSÊNCIA
39%CT side46%
26%T side63%
17%Pistol60%
100%After win67%
20%After loss0%
MEIA NOITEDust2QUINTESSÊNCIA
42%CT side61%
47%T side43%
50%Pistol58%
80%After win86%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds44% · 53% · QUINTESSÊNCIA win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol87% · 76% · MEIA NOITE keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol16% · 7% · MEIA NOITE fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MEIA NOITE vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMEIQUI
AnubisMEI bann/a0g0%0-1
MEIA NOITE on Anubis
no recent maps
QUINTESSÊNCIA on Anubis
LpaiN Academy4–131mo agoNukeQUI ban50%1-1n/a0g
QUINTESSÊNCIA on Nuke
no recent maps
MirageMEI pick33%3-640%2-3
CacheQUI pick0%0-380%4-1
InfernoMEI ban67%2-1100%2-0
AncientQUI ban14%1-633%1-2
Dust2decider60%3-250%3-3
Each team's usual first ban: MEIA NOITE Anubis · QUINTESSÊNCIA Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MEIA NOITE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/10 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 10 maps they won, 3 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs GrêmioNukefrom 4 downvs BORRACHEIROSAncientfrom 4 downvs METANOIA WolvesMiragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/19 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 19 maps they lost, 7 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs GalorysAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs BORRACHEIROSAncientled 6 · lost 13-16vs ODDIKMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs GalorysNukeled 4 · lost 5-13vs ProcyonAncientled 4 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GrêmioNukefrom 4 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs GalorysAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi41% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT41% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs BORRACHEIROSAncient13-16vs METANOIA WolvesMirage22-20vs METANOIA WolvesAncient12-16vs GrêmioDust216-14vs ex-MIBR AcademyMirage13-16
QUINTESSÊNCIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i4/12 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 12 maps they won, 4 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs PugdesonestoInfernofrom 6 downvs METANOIA WolvesMiragefrom 4 downvs PugdesonestoCachefrom 3 downvs ALKACachefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/10 (10%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 10 maps they lost, 1 (10%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UNO MILLEDust2led 4 · lost 17-19
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PugdesonestoInfernofrom 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UNO MILLEDust2led 4 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi41% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT41% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs UNO MILLEDust217-19