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Predictions / Rare Atom vs Legion · match preview
Rare Atom vs Legion: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2
Rare Atom
World #98 · 29-22
VS
2026-09-22 13:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · Best of 3
Legion
World #195 · 10-15
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · Best of 3
85%15%
The call · high confidence
Rare Atom are favoured: our model gives them 85% against Legion. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Rare Atom, record slightly favours Rare Atom, form slightly favours Rare Atom, firepower clearly favours Rare Atom, head-to-head clearly favours Rare Atom.
Likely mapsDust2 · Inferno · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Rare AtompullLegion
Team strength1603
142383/17 RAR
Track record29–22
10–1564/36 RAR
Recent formLLWLW
LLLWL60/40 RAR
Roster rating1.15
1.0395/5 RAR
Head-to-head4 maps
0 maps83/17 RAR
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 93% our own signal (128 maps of Rare Atom, 54 of Legion). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: Rare Atom leads 2–0.
Bottom line: Rare Atom to beat Legion, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsRare Atom · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.15iStar gap: the best player rates 0.15 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChildKing★ | 1.18 | 85.4 | 73.8% | 61% | 1.3 |
| Trash | 1.06 | 72.9 | 75.7% | 59% | 1.15 |
| 3gl | 1.14 | 68.3 | 75% | 36% | 1.13 |
| L1haNg | 1.01 | 81.1 | 74.8% | 56% | 1.12 |
| Summer | 0.95 | 72 | 72.2% | 53% | 1.06 |
Legion · avg 1.03 · star gap +0.18iStar gap: the best player rates 0.18 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Rare Atom
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents5mo ago
Rare Atom2 : 0
Legion!6mo ago Rare Atom2 : 0 Legion!
Rare Atom2 : 0 Legion!⚠ Different lineup
Rare Atom
outchengking
inChildKing
Legion
outpavast4r
inSOULM8
Rare Atom2 : 0 Legion!⚠ Different lineup
Rare Atom
outTiger, chengking, x9
in3gl, ChildKing, Trash
Legion
outpavast4r
inSOULM8
DEPO#782-02-3
Rare Atom vs DEPO
Mar 11Wseries2-0
The Huns#1508-40-2
Rare Atom vs The Huns
Sep 1WDust213-7Inferno9-13Mirage13-10Aug 28WCache6-13Dust216-14Mirage22-19Aug 22WCache13-0Mirage13-3+2 earlier meetings
Legion vs The Huns
Mar 1LDust25-13Nuke11-13
Chinggis Warriors#1632-40-2
Legion vs Chinggis Warriors
Apr 26LOverpass8-13Nuke11-13
Just Swing#1727-22-0
Rare Atom vs Just Swing
Aug 31WDust213-0Ancient16-14Aug 26WAncient13-7Dust213-8Apr 26LDust213-9Anubis14-16Inferno10-13+1 earlier meeting
Legion vs Just Swing
Feb 19WDust213-11Inferno13-5
Morningstar7-50-2
Rare Atom vs Morningstar
Aug 24WDust213-9Cache13-5Mar 26WDust213-9Ancient13-6Mirage7-13Anubis13-6Mar 25LDust23-13Inferno13-7Mirage6-13+1 earlier meeting
Legion vs Morningstar
Feb 18LOverpass10-13Inferno7-13
The QUBE2-02-0
Rare Atom vs The QUBE
Apr 29WAncient13-4Inferno13-8Legion vs The QUBE
Feb 17WDust213-11Mirage13-7
BORING PLAYERS2-00-2
Rare Atom vs BORING PLAYERS
Mar 31WAncient13-9Dust213-1Legion vs BORING PLAYERS
Mar 20LAnubis11-13Mirage10-13Map lab
Legion52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Legion 2-1
If the veto goes
Rare Atom 48%how the series ends52% Legion
31%2-019%
16%2-133%
Rare Atom58%21-15vsLegion42%7-7
58%Win50%
55%CT41%
54%T55%
64%Pistol39%
84%Conv82%
Rare Atom54%12-10vsLegion46%3-3
55%Win50%
65%CT44%
45%T56%
59%Pistol50%
92%Conv100%
Rare Atom33%8-11vsLegion67%5-3
42%Win63%
49%CT51%
45%T48%
45%Pistol63%
88%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Rare AtomDust2Legion
55%CT side41%
54%T side55%
64%Pistol39%
84%After win82%
38%After loss18%
Rare AtomInfernoLegion
65%CT side44%
45%T side56%
59%Pistol50%
92%After win100%
6%After loss17%
Rare AtomMirageLegion
49%CT side51%
45%T side48%
45%Pistol63%
88%After win100%
10%After loss17%
Pistol rounds58% · 48% · Rare Atom win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol87% · 93% · Legion keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol20% · 17% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Rare Atom vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Legion habitually bans Ancient, Rare Atom's strongest maps (Ancient, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Ancient 24/27), not an opponent read, so expect Rare Atom to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapRARLEG
NukeRAR bann/a0g29%2-5
Rare Atom on Nuke
no recent maps
AncientLEG ban62%16-100%0-1
Dust2RAR pick58%21-1550%7-7
InfernoLEG pick55%12-1050%3-3
AnubisRAR ban40%4-625%1-3
CacheLEG ban71%5-20%0-1
Miragedecider42%8-1163%5-3
Each team's usual first ban: Rare Atom Nuke · Legion Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Rare Atom
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i15/67 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 67 maps they won, 15 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs URAncientfrom 6 downvs Just SwingMiragefrom 6 downvs Just SwingDust2from 5 downvs Last BulletMiragefrom 4 downvs Last BulletAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i20/57 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 57 maps they lost, 20 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MorningstarDust2led 7 · lost 12-16vs URDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs JiJieHaoMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs NEXVOIDInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13vs Lynn VisionAncientled 5 · lost 16-19
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs URAncientfrom 6 down · won 19-17
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MorningstarDust2led 7 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs URAncient19-17vs TYLOOInferno17-19vs Lynn VisionAncient19-17vs The HunsDust213-16vs Alter EgoMirage14-16
Legion
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i5/22 (23%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 22 maps they won, 5 (23%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 23% of their wins were comebacks, not 23% of all games.vs Just SwingDust2from 6 downvs OxinGameNukefrom 6 downvs Haunted HouseMiragefrom 5 downvs AriseOverpassfrom 4 downvs IkariInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i8/28 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 28 maps they lost, 8 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Chinggis WarriorsOverpassled 5 · lost 8-13vs ScarXDust2led 4 · lost 8-13vs NasNukeled 4 · lost 10-13vs MorningstarInfernoled 3 · lost 7-13vs Change The GameOverpassled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Just SwingDust2from 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Chinggis WarriorsOverpassled 5 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi44% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT44% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs AriseDust216-14vs ScarXMirage19-17vs DEPODust216-14vs Haunted HouseNuke13-16vs Haunted HouseDust214-16