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Predictions / Iowa Stormboar vs Wanted Goons · match preview
Iowa Stormboar vs Wanted Goons: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2
Iowa Stormboar
World #170 · 12-10
VS
2026-09-23 01:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Wanted Goons
World #217 · 11-21
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
77%23%
The call · high confidence
Iowa Stormboar are favoured: our model gives them 77% against Wanted Goons. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Iowa Stormboar, record slightly favours Iowa Stormboar, form clearly favours Iowa Stormboar, firepower clearly favours Iowa Stormboar, head-to-head slightly favours Iowa Stormboar.
Likely mapsNuke · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Iowa StormboarpullWanted Goons
Team strength1535
141275/25 IOW
Track record12–10
11–2161/39 IOW
Recent formWLWLW
LLLLL85/15 IOW
Roster rating1.09
1.0689/11 IOW
Head-to-head1 maps
0 maps67/33 IOW
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 92% our own signal (50 maps of Iowa Stormboar, 72 of Wanted Goons). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Iowa Stormboar leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Iowa Stormboar to beat Wanted Goons, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsIowa Stormboar · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.34iStar gap: the best player rates 0.34 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Wanted Goons · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan★ | 1.05 | 76.7 | 69.6% | 54% | 1.13 |
| killerPandas | 1.03 | 74 | 70.5% | 37% | 1.08 |
| hibui | 0.95 | 69.2 | 69.6% | 49% | 1.04 |
| febreeze | 0.88 | 73.7 | 69.9% | 53% | 1.03 |
| Magic | 0.93 | 74.8 | 66.4% | 56% | 1.01 |
Recent form
Iowa Stormboar
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
LAG#941-41-6
Overtake Sector#1475-22-4
Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake Sector
Sep 10WDust213-10Mirage1-13Ancient16-14Sep 4WMirage13-4Jun 13WDust24-13Mirage13-7Ancient13-9Wanted Goons vs Overtake Sector
Jul 1LAncient13-10Mirage11-13Dust23-13Jun 12LMirage6-13Ancient13-10Overpass7-13
EMPIRE#1711-25-5
Iowa Stormboar vs EMPIRE
Aug 29LCache13-4Nuke8-13Inferno10-13Wanted Goons vs EMPIRE
Apr 28WDust213-8Mirage11-13Nuke13-11Mar 28WDust213-10Nuke13-3Mar 28LNuke10-13Mirage5-13+1 earlier meeting
DETONATE#2023-30-2
Wanted Goons vs DETONATE
Jun 13LAnubis9-13Ancient14-16
Villainous#2082-02-2
Iowa Stormboar vs Villainous
Aug 28WInferno13-7Ancient16-13Map lab
Iowa Stormboar69%to win the Bo3 · most likely Iowa Stormboar 2-0
If the veto goes
Iowa Stormboar 69%how the series ends31% Wanted Goons
47%2-09%
22%2-122%
Iowa Stormboar61%4-6vsWanted Goons39%4-10
40%Win29%
55%CT56%
46%T35%
60%Pistol54%
92%Conv87%
Iowa Stormboar77%5-1vsWanted Goons23%9-10
83%Win47%
55%CT51%
52%T47%
50%Pistol55%
100%Conv86%
Iowa Stormboar50%1-2thinWanted Goons50%0-0
33%Win–
38%CT–
55%T–
50%Pistol–
100%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Iowa StormboarNukeWanted Goons
55%CT side56%
46%T side35%
60%Pistol54%
92%After win87%
13%After loss23%
Iowa StormboarAncientWanted Goons
55%CT side51%
52%T side47%
50%Pistol55%
100%After win86%
0%After loss24%
Iowa StormboarCacheWanted Goons
38%CT side–
55%T side–
50%Pistol–
100%After win–
0%After loss–
Pistol rounds55% · 55% · level, no edge
After a won pistol95% · 86% · Iowa Stormboar keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol6% · 23% · Wanted Goons fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Iowa Stormboar vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapIOWWAN
InfernoIOW ban17%1-525%1-3
MirageWAN ban57%8-620%3-12
NukeIOW pick40%4-629%4-10
AncientWAN pick83%5-147%9-10
AnubisIOW ban33%1-250%1-1
Dust2WAN ban63%5-336%4-7
Cachedecider33%1-2n/a0g
Wanted Goons on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: Iowa Stormboar Inferno · Wanted Goons Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Iowa Stormboar
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i8/25 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 25 maps they won, 8 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs Beyond LimitsDust2from 7 downvs Beyond LimitsMiragefrom 5 downvs ShimmerDust2from 4 downvs VillainousAncientfrom 4 downvs Overtake SectorAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/25 (20%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 5 (20%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs M80Mirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs DETONATEMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs MarsborneAnubisled 5 · lost 9-13vs NRGNukeled 3 · lost 13-16vs SportsBetExpertMirageled 3 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Beyond LimitsDust2from 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs M80Mirageled 5 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 6Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 6 went to overtime.vs DETONATEMirage14-16vs NRGNuke13-16vs VillainousAncient16-13vs Beyond LimitsDust216-14vs Overtake SectorAncient16-14
Wanted Goons
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/27 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 27 maps they won, 9 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs EMPIREDust2from 5 downvs NuToriousAncientfrom 5 downvs ZomblersNukefrom 4 downvs Overtake SectorAncientfrom 4 downvs VillainousAnubisfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/44 (43%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 44 maps they lost, 19 (43%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs DETONATEAncientled 9 · lost 14-16vs Desi BoyzNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs EMPIREInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs LAGDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs Overtake SectorMirageled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs EMPIREDust2from 5 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs DETONATEAncientled 9 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 5Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 5 went to overtime.vs ZomblersNuke22-18vs Reign AboveNuke17-19vs BrahmasOverpass16-13vs BrahmasNuke13-16vs DETONATEAncient14-16