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Predictions / FlyQuest RED vs Marsborne · match preview
FlyQuest RED vs Marsborne: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2
FlyQuest RED
World #– · 1-12
VS
2026-09-23 01:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Marsborne
World #91 · 46-30
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
17%83%
The call · high confidence
Marsborne are favoured: our model gives them 83% against FlyQuest RED. No odds yet. Strength clearly favours Marsborne, record clearly favours Marsborne, form clearly favours Marsborne, firepower clearly favours Marsborne, head-to-head clearly favours Marsborne.
Likely mapsNuke · Anubis · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FlyQuest REDpullMarsborne
Team strength1372
162490/10 MAR
Track record1–12
46–3089/11 MAR
Recent formLLLLL
WWLLL85/15 MAR
Roster rating0.87
1.1398/2 MAR
Head-to-head0 maps
2 maps75/25 MAR
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 87% our own signal (29 maps of FlyQuest RED, 176 of Marsborne). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Marsborne leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Marsborne to beat FlyQuest RED, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFlyQuest RED · avg 0.87 · star gap +0.18iStar gap: the best player rates 0.18 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Marsborne · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
FlyQuest RED
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
SportsBetExpert#690-24-4
FlyQuest RED vs SportsBetExpert
Feb 9LDust29-13Mirage1-13Marsborne vs SportsBetExpert
Aug 2LNuke6-13Anubis4-13May 31WInferno13-9Mirage13-8May 24LInferno10-13Anubis2-13+1 earlier meeting
LAG#940-26-0
FlyQuest RED vs LAG
Feb 27LAncient5-13Nuke4-13
regain#1680-25-2
FlyQuest RED vs regain
Apr 3LDust28-13Ancient6-13
BOSS0-23-2
FlyQuest RED vs BOSS
Apr 4LMirage5-13Ancient3-13
Reign Above0-24-0
FlyQuest RED vs Reign Above
Feb 7LDust29-13Ancient7-13
F51-22-0
FlyQuest RED vs F5
Feb 11LNuke7-13Ancient22-20Mirage10-13Marsborne vs F5
Jun 12WOverpass13-3Inferno13-4
Fisher College0-20-2
FlyQuest RED vs Fisher College
Feb 28LMirage5-13Ancient9-13Marsborne vs Fisher College
Apr 26LInferno16-19Ancient10-13Map lab
Marsborne71%to win the Bo3 · most likely Marsborne 2-1
If the veto goes
FlyQuest RED 29%how the series ends71% Marsborne
18%2-033%
11%2-138%
FlyQuest RED40%1-3vsMarsborne60%8-9
25%Win47%
36%CT52%
31%T41%
38%Pistol44%
67%Conv73%
FlyQuest RED44%0-1vsMarsborne56%16-4
0%Win80%
0%CT57%
8%T60%
0%Pistol40%
–Conv100%
FlyQuest RED22%2-7vsMarsborne78%20-15
22%Win57%
43%CT59%
38%T47%
44%Pistol60%
63%Conv79%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FlyQuest REDNukeMarsborne
36%CT side52%
31%T side41%
38%Pistol44%
67%After win73%
0%After loss21%
FlyQuest REDAnubisMarsborne
0%CT side57%
8%T side60%
0%Pistol40%
–After win100%
0%After loss42%
FlyQuest REDAncientMarsborne
43%CT side59%
38%T side47%
44%Pistol60%
63%After win79%
0%After loss7%
Pistol rounds39% · 51% · Marsborne win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol64% · 82% · Marsborne keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 23% · Marsborne fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FlyQuest RED vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFLYMAR
InfernoFLY bann/a0g69%29-13
FlyQuest RED on Inferno
no recent maps
CacheMAR bann/a0g0%0-1
FlyQuest RED on Cache
no recent maps
Marsborne on Cache
Lregain5–132mo agoNukeFLY pick25%1-347%8-9
AnubisMAR pick0%0-180%16-4
MirageFLY ban0%0-967%18-9
Dust2MAR ban17%1-557%8-6
Ancientdecider22%2-757%20-15
Each team's usual first ban: FlyQuest RED Inferno · Marsborne Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
FlyQuest RED
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i3/4 (75%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 4 maps they won, 3 (75%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 75% of their wins were comebacks, not 75% of all games.vs Money CrewAncientfrom 6 downvs Wanted GoonsNukefrom 4 downvs F5Ancientfrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/25 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 7 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Money CrewDust2led 7 · lost 18-22vs SakuraMirageled 6 · lost 20-22vs Fisher CollegeAncientled 4 · lost 9-13vs regainAncientled 4 · lost 6-13vs WildcardMirageled 3 · lost 4-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Money CrewAncientfrom 6 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Money CrewDust2led 7 · lost 18-22
Avg map margini6.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs F5Ancient22-20vs Money CrewDust218-22vs SakuraMirage20-22vs SakuraAncient13-16
Marsborne
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/106 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 106 maps they won, 40 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 downvs Chicken CoopAncientfrom 10 downvs 9zAncientfrom 6 downvs LAGMiragefrom 6 downvs Chicken CoopDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/69 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 69 maps they lost, 26 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13vs SportsBetExpertAnubisled 9 · lost 4-13vs NRGMirageled 6 · lost 17-19vs ZomblersAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs GalorysOverpassled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs NRGMirage19-22vs NRGMirage17-19vs BESTIAAncient16-19vs VocaOverpass14-16vs Fake do BiruInferno19-17