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Predictions / Nemesis vs Rune Eaters · match preview
Nemesis vs Rune Eaters: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier
Nemesis
World #44 · 69-40
VS
2026-09-24 09:00 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
Rune Eaters
World #109 · 39-49
Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
76%24%
77%
1.214Market · 23 books
23%The call · high confidence
Nemesis are favoured: our model gives them 76% against Rune Eaters. Bookmakers lean Nemesis at 77%. Strength clearly favours Nemesis, record slightly favours Nemesis, form slightly favours Nemesis, firepower clearly favours Nemesis.
Likely mapsAncient · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NemesispullRune Eaters
Team strength1686
154478/22 NEM
Track record69–40
39–4961/39 NEM
Recent formLWWWW
LWLLW63/37 NEM
Roster rating1.12
1.0982/18 NEM
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 77% for Nemesis (1.21 / 4) and we land at 76%, the same read. This read is 98% our own signal (261 maps of Nemesis, 216 of Rune Eaters).
Bottom line: Nemesis to beat Rune Eaters, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNemesis · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Rune Eaters · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.13iStar gap: the best player rates 0.13 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| demente★ | 1.16 | 80.5 | 75% | 53% | 1.22 |
| her1tage | 0.98 | 74.1 | 71.3% | 58% | 1.1 |
| noni | 1.1 | 69.9 | 70.9% | 38% | 1.09 |
| forkyz | 0.94 | 76.3 | 70.9% | 55% | 1.08 |
| dukefissura | 0.89 | 70.4 | 67.2% | 61% | 0.98 |
Recent form
Nemesis
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Inner Circle#222-00-2
Nemesis vs Inner Circle
Jan 27WMirage19-16Nuke13-11Rune Eaters vs Inner Circle
Mar 17LAncient3-13Dust211-13
HOTU#321-42-6
Nemiga#366-100-2
Nemesis vs Nemiga
Sep 16LMirage6-13Ancient8-13Cache19-17Dust217-19Sep 5LMirage1-13Ancient7-13Apr 1WOverpass4-13Nuke13-7Dust213-9+3 earlier meetings
Rune Eaters vs Nemiga
Mar 13LDust28-13Overpass4-13
K27#392-80-2
Nemesis vs K27
Mar 23LNuke21-25Dust214-16Mar 12LNuke4-13Dust213-9Mirage6-13Feb 10LAncient10-13Dust25-13+1 earlier meeting
Rune Eaters vs K27
Aug 23LDust210-13Ancient5-13
fnatic#422-00-4
Nemesis vs fnatic
Apr 29WInferno13-5Ancient13-8
SINNERS#473-40-2
Nemesis vs SINNERS
Sep 9LCache13-10Ancient9-13Mirage8-13Mar 7WAncient13-11Mirage19-16Jan 29LMirage8-13Ancient10-13Rune Eaters vs SINNERS
Jul 31LDust212-16Mirage5-13
Eternal Fire#480-22-4
Nemesis vs Eternal Fire
Mar 14LDust211-13Ancient4-13Rune Eaters vs Eternal Fire
May 19LDust213-11Ancient5-13Mirage7-13Mar 5LAncient13-7Mirage11-13Overpass13-16
Acend#572-31-2
Rune Eaters vs Acend
Mar 9LInferno9-13Dust213-11Ancient10-13Map lab
Nemesis69%to win the Bo3 · most likely Nemesis 2-0
If the veto goes
Nemesis 69%how the series ends31% Rune Eaters
40%2-013%
29%2-118%
Nemesis71%37-24vsRune Eaters29%18-29
61%Win38%
55%CT49%
52%T47%
55%Pistol49%
89%Conv91%
Nemesis56%29-20vsRune Eaters44%29-26
59%Win53%
53%CT53%
51%T52%
49%Pistol49%
81%Conv85%
Nemesis61%5-2vsRune Eaters39%2-2
71%Win50%
54%CT35%
56%T54%
57%Pistol38%
75%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
NemesisAncientRune Eaters
55%CT side49%
52%T side47%
55%Pistol49%
89%After win91%
35%After loss15%
NemesisDust2Rune Eaters
53%CT side53%
51%T side52%
49%Pistol49%
81%After win85%
20%After loss16%
NemesisCacheRune Eaters
54%CT side35%
56%T side54%
57%Pistol38%
75%After win100%
50%After loss20%
Pistol rounds53% · 49% · Nemesis win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol85% · 88% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol29% · 16% · Nemesis fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Nemesis vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNEMRUN
AnubisNEM ban0%0-170%7-3
NukeRUN ban70%35-1541%7-10
AncientNEM pick61%37-2438%18-29
Dust2RUN pick59%29-2053%29-26
MirageNEM ban59%23-1659%30-21
InfernoRUN ban56%20-1643%9-12
Cachedecider71%5-250%2-2
Each team's usual first ban: Nemesis Anubis · Rune Eaters Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Nemesis
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i45/157 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 157 maps they won, 45 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs OGAncientfrom 8 downvs GenOneDust2from 6 downvs Inner CircleMiragefrom 6 downvs ECSTATICMiragefrom 6 downvs INOX DivisionInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/98 (24%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 98 maps they lost, 24 (24%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BET-MDust2led 8 · lost 16-19vs NemigaDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs 100 ThievesAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs TDKOverpassled 6 · lost 9-13vs EYEBALLERSInfernoled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs OGAncientfrom 8 down · won 22-20
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BET-MDust2led 8 · lost 16-19
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 27Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 27 went to overtime.vs EYEBALLERSInferno18-22vs BIG AcademyDust219-16vs GenOneDust216-13vs Inner CircleMirage19-16vs MUERTAInferno14-16
Rune Eaters
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i33/103 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 103 maps they won, 33 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs G2 AresAncientfrom 8 downvs ex-MANAAncientfrom 7 downvs AcendDust2from 6 downvs OmegaInfernofrom 6 downvs HashirasDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i35/109 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 109 maps they lost, 35 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BebopMirageled 8 · lost 14-16vs MASONICDust2led 8 · lost 12-16vs NOVAQMirageled 8 · lost 5-13vs BRUTEOverpassled 7 · lost 11-13vs LavkedAncientled 7 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2 AresAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-5
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BebopMirageled 8 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 31Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 31 went to overtime.vs HashirasDust219-17vs zajezdzaczeInferno16-13vs Eternal FireOverpass13-16vs ex-Fingers CrossedNuke16-14vs The Last ResortAnubis16-14