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Predictions / Acend vs ex-6666 · match preview
Acend vs ex-6666: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 11
Acend
World #131 · 55-47
VS
2026-10-22 14:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 · Best of 3
ex-6666
World #72 · 7-4
CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 · Best of 3
44%56%
56%
1.622.1Market · 3 books
44%The call
ex-6666 are favoured: our model gives them 56% against Acend. Bookmakers lean Acend at 56%. Form slightly favours ex-6666, firepower clearly favours ex-6666, head-to-head clearly favours Acend.
Likely mapsInferno · Ancient · Anubis
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Acendpullex-6666
Team strength1540
156655/45 EX-
Track record55–47
7–453/47 EX-
Recent formLLWLW
WWLLL65/35 EX-
Roster rating1.07
1.1899/1 EX-
Head-to-head2 maps
0 maps75/25 ACE
Bookmakers imply 56% for Acend (1.62 / 2.1); we land 12 points lower at 44%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (237 maps of Acend, 88 of ex-6666).
Bottom line: ex-6666 to beat Acend, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsAcend · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
ex-6666 · avg 1.18 · star gap +0.17iStar gap: the best player rates 0.17 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rendysky★ | 1.42 | 84.1 | 77.3% | 47% | 1.35 |
| amster | 1.24 | 82.9 | 77% | 50% | 1.31 |
| kL1o | 0.99 | 79.6 | 75% | 58% | 1.15 |
| skcH | 0.99 | 69 | 75.7% | 52% | 1.08 |
| stefienson | 0.83 | 67 | 74.6% | 55% | 1.02 |
Recent form
Acend
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
G2 Ares#1050-22-0
Acend vs G2 Ares
Mar 1LAncient11-13Overpass4-13ex-6666 vs G2 Ares
Oct 17WInferno13-11Dust213-2
BRUTE#1092-30-2
ex-6666 vs BRUTE
Oct 21LAnubis8-13Mirage11-13
Bushido Wildcats#1132-14-0
Acend vs Bushido Wildcats
Jan 13WOverpass13-6Mirage10-13Inferno13-8LAVLavked#1352-11-2
Acend vs Lavked
Jun 17WOverpass9-13Mirage13-7Dust213-11ex-6666 vs Lavked
Oct 20LNuke13-8Dust210-13Anubis3-13Map lab
Acend53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Acend 2-1
If the veto goes
Acend 53%how the series ends47% ex-6666
16%2-032%
37%2-115%
Acend55%28-12vsex-666645%2-1
70%Win67%
56%CT61%
54%T42%
55%Pistol83%
66%Conv40%
Acend29%22-20vsex-666671%4-0
52%Win100%
57%CT68%
45%T55%
61%Pistol75%
84%Conv83%
Acend71%9-4vsex-666629%3-4
69%Win43%
54%CT51%
50%T49%
50%Pistol57%
77%Conv63%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
AcendInfernoex-6666
56%CT side61%
54%T side42%
55%Pistol83%
66%After win40%
33%After loss0%
AcendAncientex-6666
57%CT side68%
45%T side55%
61%Pistol75%
84%After win83%
9%After loss0%
AcendAnubisex-6666
54%CT side51%
50%T side49%
50%Pistol57%
77%After win63%
23%After loss50%
Pistol rounds57% · 68% · ex-6666 win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol76% · 63% · Acend keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol22% · 33% · ex-6666 fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Acend vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
ex-6666 habitually bans Inferno, Acend's strongest maps (Inferno, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 6/11), not an opponent read, so expect Acend to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapACEEX-
NukeACE ban25%1-375%3-1
CacheEX- ban13%1-7n/a0g
Acend on Cache
L
Nexus6–1313d agoL
HOTU10–1313d agoL
ex-Zero Tenacity10–1314d agoL
3DMAX2–131mo agoL
FOKUS7–132mo agoL
NRG2–133mo agoW
Vandulken13–03mo agoL
Betclic5–133mo agoex-6666 on Cache
no recent maps
InfernoACE pick70%28-1267%2-1
AncientEX- pick52%22-20100%4-0
Dust2ACE ban40%19-2967%4-2
MirageEX- ban53%26-230%0-2
Anubisdecider69%9-443%3-4
Each team's usual first ban: Acend Nuke · ex-6666 Cache.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Acend
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/117 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 117 maps they won, 34 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs MOUZ NXTAnubisfrom 8 downvs 777Overpassfrom 6 downvs STATEAncientfrom 6 downvs HEROICInfernofrom 6 downvs Inner CircleMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i38/117 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 117 maps they lost, 38 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BASEMENT BOYSAncientled 8 · lost 14-16vs SharksMirageled 8 · lost 5-13vs QWENTRYDust2led 6 · lost 16-19vs Rune EatersDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs G2Dust2led 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MOUZ NXTAnubisfrom 8 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BASEMENT BOYSAncientled 8 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs Eternal FireOverpass14-16vs MASONICMirage19-15vs 777Overpass16-13vs BebopOverpass16-12vs BebopMirage14-16
ex-6666
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i10/16 (63%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 16 maps they won, 10 (63%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 63% of their wins were comebacks, not 63% of all games.vs LavkedNukefrom 10 downvs Saint SinnersDust2from 8 downvs mellrenAncientfrom 7 downvs Bushido WildcatsDust2from 6 downvs G2 AresInfernofrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/10 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 10 maps they lost, 4 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BRUTEAnubisled 5 · lost 8-13vs LavkedDust2led 4 · lost 10-13vs Fire FluxInfernoled 3 · lost 10-13vs EnjoyAnubisled 3 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedNukefrom 10 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BRUTEAnubisled 5 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi38% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT38% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample