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Predictions / Acend vs Butterfly · match preview
Acend vs Butterfly: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 12
Acend
World #123 · 59-49
VS
2026-10-31 18:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 · Best of 3
Butterfly
World #132 · 22-20
CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 · Best of 3
62%38%
The call
Acend are favoured: our model gives them 62% against Butterfly. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours Acend, firepower clearly favours Acend.
Likely mapsInferno · Ancient · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
AcendpullButterfly
Team strength1591
154859/41 ACE
Track record59–49
22–2051/49 BUT
Recent formWLWLW
WLLWL55/45 ACE
Roster rating1.07
1.1271/29 ACE
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 96% our own signal (250 maps of Acend, 98 of Butterfly).
Bottom line: Acend to beat Butterfly, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsAcend · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Butterfly · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Acend
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
1win#141-24-0
Acend vs 1win
Aug 9LAnubis6-13Ancient13-3Dust210-13
K27#440-20-1
Acend vs K27
Jun 20LMirage11-13Ancient11-13Butterfly vs K27
Sep 6LNuke3-13
Nemesis#463-21-2
Butterfly vs Nemesis
Sep 14LDust213-9Inferno9-13Nuke9-13
Nuclear TigeRES#531-20-4
Acend vs Nuclear TigeRES
Apr 20LInferno13-7Ancient6-13Dust24-13
Black Phoenix#582-13-3
Acend vs Black Phoenix
Sep 25WDust214-16Mirage13-10Inferno13-8
BET-M#784-32-5
ex-Zero Tenacity#935-50-2
Acend vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Oct 25LInferno6-13Cache7-13Oct 8WCache10-13Inferno13-11Dust213-9Mar 9LDust210-13Mirage13-11Inferno7-13+1 earlier meeting
Butterfly vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Oct 2LInferno11-13Mirage2-13
FORZE Reload#944-02-1
Butterfly vs FORZE Reload
Oct 29WNuke13-11Ancient14-16Dust213-7Map lab
Acend64%to win the Bo3 · most likely Acend 2-0
If the veto goes
Acend 64%how the series ends36% Butterfly
45%2-04%
19%2-132%
Acend93%31-13vsButterfly7%2-16
70%Win11%
55%CT46%
54%T37%
53%Pistol42%
68%Conv80%
Acend49%24-20vsButterfly51%9-7
55%Win56%
57%CT50%
46%T57%
60%Pistol44%
85%Conv86%
Acend37%27-23vsButterfly63%9-4
54%Win69%
52%CT71%
53%T44%
48%Pistol65%
85%Conv76%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
AcendInfernoButterfly
55%CT side46%
54%T side37%
53%Pistol42%
68%After win80%
32%After loss14%
AcendAncientButterfly
57%CT side50%
46%T side57%
60%Pistol44%
85%After win86%
9%After loss22%
AcendMirageButterfly
52%CT side71%
53%T side44%
48%Pistol65%
85%After win76%
29%After loss0%
Pistol rounds54% · 49% · Acend win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol80% · 80% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol24% · 15% · Acend fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Acend vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Butterfly habitually bans Anubis, Acend's strongest maps (Inferno, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 41/42), not an opponent read, so expect Acend to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapACEBUT
NukeACE ban25%1-360%15-10
AnubisBUT ban69%9-40%0-1
InfernoACE pick70%31-1311%2-16
AncientBUT pick55%24-2056%9-7
Dust2ACE ban40%21-3163%12-7
CacheBUT ban20%2-875%3-1
Miragedecider54%27-2369%9-4
Each team's usual first ban: Acend Nuke · Butterfly Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Acend
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/126 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 126 maps they won, 40 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs MOUZ NXTAnubisfrom 8 downvs FORZE ReloadAncientfrom 7 downvs 777Overpassfrom 6 downvs STATEAncientfrom 6 downvs HEROICInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i39/121 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 121 maps they lost, 39 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BASEMENT BOYSAncientled 8 · lost 14-16vs SharksMirageled 8 · lost 5-13vs ex-Zero TenacityInfernoled 7 · lost 6-13vs QWENTRYDust2led 6 · lost 16-19vs Rune EatersDust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MOUZ NXTAnubisfrom 8 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BASEMENT BOYSAncientled 8 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs Eternal FireOverpass14-16vs MASONICMirage19-15vs 777Overpass16-13vs BebopOverpass16-12vs BebopMirage14-16
Butterfly
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/50 (44%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 50 maps they won, 22 (44%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 44% of their wins were comebacks, not 44% of all games.vs UPGRADEAncientfrom 10 downvs LavkedNukefrom 8 downvs UPGRADEDust2from 8 downvs SAW YoungstersNukefrom 7 downvs Black PhoenixNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/46 (54%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 46 maps they lost, 25 (54%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ARCREDInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13vs CYBERSHOKEAncientled 9 · lost 8-13vs LavkedAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs Iberian SoulInfernoled 6 · lost 7-13vs BET-MInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs UPGRADEAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ARCREDInfernoled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs ex-RUSTECNuke14-16vs G2 AresMirage12-16vs G2 AresInferno14-16vs SAW YoungstersInferno13-16vs 1winMirage19-17