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Predictions / Inner Circle vs Nemesis · match preview
Inner Circle vs Nemesis: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 5
Inner Circle
World #30 · 44-34
VS
2026-10-27 13:30 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 5 · Best of 3 · ★
Nemesis
World #47 · 81-44
Stake Ranked Episode 5 · Best of 3 · ★
34%66%
49%
1.881.82Market · 5 books
51%The call
Nemesis are favoured: our model gives them 66% against Inner Circle. Bookmakers lean Nemesis at 51%. Strength slightly favours Nemesis, form clearly favours Nemesis, firepower clearly favours Nemesis, head-to-head clearly favours Nemesis.
Likely mapsDust2 · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Inner CirclepullNemesis
Team strength1621
168363/37 NEM
Track record44–34
81–4455/45 NEM
Recent formLLWLL
LWWWW71/29 NEM
Roster rating1.1
1.1392/8 NEM
Head-to-head0 maps
2 maps75/25 NEM
Bookmakers imply 49% for Inner Circle (1.88 / 1.82); we land 15 points lower at 34%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (176 maps of Inner Circle, 303 of Nemesis). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Nemesis leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Nemesis to beat Inner Circle, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsInner Circle · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawy★ | 1.1 | 83.6 | 74.7% | 55% | 1.19 |
| headtr1ck | 1.28 | 72.7 | 75.9% | 34% | 1.14 |
| cptkurtka023 | 0.97 | 72.7 | 72.1% | 61% | 1.11 |
| zeRRoFIX | 1.03 | 73.5 | 73.4% | 57% | 1.07 |
| onic | 0.9 | 66.4 | 71% | 52% | 1.01 |
Nemesis · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Inner Circle
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
B8#210-41-0
Nemesis vs B8
Jul 2WAncient13-10
Nemiga#240-26-10
Inner Circle vs Nemiga
Sep 9LAnubis10-13Ancient7-13Nemesis vs Nemiga
Sep 16LMirage6-13Ancient8-13Cache19-17Dust217-19Sep 5LMirage1-13Ancient7-13Apr 1WOverpass4-13Nuke13-7Dust213-9+3 earlier meetings
Alliance#291-21-2
Inner Circle vs Alliance
Mar 31LDust27-13Overpass13-11Anubis8-13Nemesis vs Alliance
Jul 9LNuke13-8Inferno7-13Ancient7-13
fnatic#342-14-1
Inner Circle vs fnatic
Feb 26WAncient11-13Overpass13-8Dust213-10
HOTU#381-43-5
Sangal#402-22-1
Nemesis vs Sangal
Feb 22WMirage7-13Ancient13-7Nuke16-14
Wildcard#421-20-2
Inner Circle vs Wildcard
May 22LDust213-11Mirage10-13Nuke7-13Nemesis vs Wildcard
Sep 11LInferno9-13Dust213-16
Eternal Fire#432-00-2
Inner Circle vs Eternal Fire
Feb 15WAncient16-12Mirage13-9Nemesis vs Eternal Fire
Mar 14LDust211-13Ancient4-13Map lab
Nemesis52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Nemesis 2-1
If the veto goes
Inner Circle 48%how the series ends52% Nemesis
26%2-023%
22%2-129%
Inner Circle57%26-15vsNemesis43%33-26
63%Win56%
56%CT54%
55%T50%
49%Pistol51%
78%Conv83%
Inner Circle46%21-16vsNemesis54%43-28
57%Win61%
53%CT56%
49%T51%
53%Pistol54%
79%Conv88%
Inner Circle43%4-2vsNemesis57%8-3
67%Win73%
61%CT56%
44%T58%
50%Pistol50%
67%Conv73%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Inner CircleDust2Nemesis
56%CT side54%
55%T side50%
49%Pistol51%
78%After win83%
33%After loss17%
Inner CircleAncientNemesis
53%CT side56%
49%T side51%
53%Pistol54%
79%After win88%
23%After loss35%
Inner CircleCacheNemesis
61%CT side56%
44%T side58%
50%Pistol50%
67%After win73%
17%After loss64%
Pistol rounds51% · 52% · level, no edge
After a won pistol78% · 85% · Nemesis keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol28% · 30% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Inner Circle vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapINNNEM
InfernoINN bann/a0g63%27-16
Inner Circle on Inferno
no recent maps
AnubisNEM ban53%9-80%0-1
Dust2INN pick63%26-1556%33-26
AncientNEM pick57%21-1661%43-28
NukeINN ban48%11-1271%40-16
MirageNEM ban47%18-2055%24-20
Cachedecider67%4-273%8-3
Each team's usual first ban: Inner Circle Inferno · Nemesis Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Inner Circle
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/96 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 96 maps they won, 30 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs Eternal FireAncientfrom 6 downvs FaZeMiragefrom 6 downvs 9INEAncientfrom 6 downvs VitalityCachefrom 6 downvs CYBERSHOKEMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i31/79 (39%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 79 maps they lost, 31 (39%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs 3DMAXDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs NemesisMirageled 6 · lost 16-19vs K27Anubisled 6 · lost 9-13vs Friendly CampersAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Eternal FireAncientfrom 6 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 26Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 26 went to overtime.vs FAVBETNuke17-19vs NemesisMirage16-19vs 3DMAXNuke13-16vs WHITEBIRDOverpass16-13vs WHITEBIRDDust214-16
Nemesis
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i53/183 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 183 maps they won, 53 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs SINNERSCachefrom 11 downvs EYEBALLERSDust2from 10 downvs K27Ancientfrom 9 downvs Nuclear TigeRESNukefrom 9 downvs OGAncientfrom 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i31/114 (27%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 114 maps they lost, 31 (27%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Nuclear TigeRESNukeled 11 · lost 2-13vs BET-MDust2led 8 · lost 16-19vs NemigaDust2led 6 · lost 10-13vs 100 ThievesAncientled 6 · lost 14-16vs TDKOverpassled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs SINNERSCachefrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Nuclear TigeRESNukeled 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 29Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 29 went to overtime.vs EYEBALLERSInferno18-22vs BIG AcademyDust219-16vs GenOneDust216-13vs Inner CircleMirage19-16vs MUERTAInferno14-16