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Predictions / MIBR vs Eternal Fire · match preview
MIBR vs Eternal Fire: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 5
MIBR
World #12 · 53-27
VS
2026-10-27 18:30 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 5 · Best of 3 · ★
Eternal Fire
World #43 · 67-41
Stake Ranked Episode 5 · Best of 3 · ★
54%46%
62%
1.52.4Market · 5 books
38%The call
MIBR are favoured: our model gives them 54% against Eternal Fire. Bookmakers lean MIBR at 62%. Head-to-head slightly favours Eternal Fire.
Likely mapsInferno · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MIBRpullEternal Fire
Team strength1680
166753/47 MIB
Track record53–27
67–4156/44 MIB
Recent formLWWWW
WWWLL54/46 ETE
Roster rating1.131.1550/50
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 ETE
Bookmakers imply 62% for MIBR (1.5 / 2.4); we land 8 points lower at 54%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (180 maps of MIBR, 246 of Eternal Fire). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Eternal Fire leads 1–0.
Bottom line: MIBR to beat Eternal Fire, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMIBR · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.18iStar gap: the best player rates 0.18 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Eternal Fire · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.1iStar gap: the best player rates 0.1 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
MIBR
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Ninjas in Pyjamas#191-20-2
MIBR vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Oct 17LMirage2-13Cache19-17Ancient9-13Eternal Fire vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Oct 3LDust24-13Inferno11-13
magic#262-10-2
MIBR vs magic
Sep 18WAncient13-8Mirage11-13Inferno13-8Eternal Fire vs magic
May 2LMirage2-13Dust24-13
100 Thieves#332-02-4
MIBR vs 100 Thieves
Oct 17WNuke13-8Mirage13-10Eternal Fire vs 100 Thieves
Oct 2LAnubis12-16Aug 24WAncient13-9Dust27-13Mirage13-10Feb 27LInferno11-13Dust29-13
BIG#371-10-2
Eternal Fire vs BIG
Aug 9LMirage10-13Inferno8-13
K27#462-25-2
BC.Game#515-42-1
LP#1032-12-1
MIBR vs LP
Jul 29WAncient7-13Mirage19-17Nuke13-2Eternal Fire vs LP
Sep 1WInferno13-6Cache10-13Mirage13-7
Sharks4-40-2
MIBR vs Sharks
Jan 31WInferno13-11Nuke10-13Ancient13-4Jan 19LInferno13-9Ancient8-13Mirage13-7Overpass10-13Dust25-13Eternal Fire vs Sharks
Jun 23LAncient11-13Nuke7-13Map lab
MIBR62%to win the Bo3 · most likely MIBR 2-0
If the veto goes
MIBR 62%how the series ends38% Eternal Fire
37%2-015%
25%2-123%
MIBR62%29-13vsEternal Fire38%12-9
69%Win57%
55%CT54%
58%T58%
56%Pistol50%
77%Conv90%
MIBR60%23-14vsEternal Fire40%30-28
62%Win52%
65%CT54%
47%T45%
61%Pistol54%
84%Conv79%
MIBR52%19-12vsEternal Fire48%25-17
61%Win60%
53%CT59%
50%T49%
58%Pistol51%
92%Conv93%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MIBRInfernoEternal Fire
55%CT side54%
58%T side58%
56%Pistol50%
77%After win90%
11%After loss24%
MIBRMirageEternal Fire
65%CT side54%
47%T side45%
61%Pistol54%
84%After win79%
24%After loss28%
MIBRAncientEternal Fire
53%CT side59%
50%T side49%
58%Pistol51%
92%After win93%
42%After loss27%
Pistol rounds58% · 52% · MIBR win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol83% · 86% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol24% · 27% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MIBR vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMIBETE
Dust2MIB ban0%0-160%33-22
NukeETE ban56%19-1546%6-7
InfernoMIB pick69%29-1357%12-9
MirageETE pick62%23-1452%30-28
CacheMIB ban70%7-367%14-7
AnubisETE ban86%12-256%14-11
Ancientdecider61%19-1260%25-17
Each team's usual first ban: MIBR Dust2 · Eternal Fire Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MIBR
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i38/114 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 114 maps they won, 38 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs GalorysMiragefrom 9 downvs Gaimin GladiatorsAnubisfrom 8 downvs magicAncientfrom 7 downvs Bounty HuntersAnubisfrom 6 downvs BC.GameAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/66 (39%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 66 maps they lost, 26 (39%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs RED CanidsInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13vs LegacyMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs Eternal FireAncientled 6 · lost 16-19vs Eternal FireMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs BETBOOMAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GalorysMiragefrom 9 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs RED CanidsInfernoled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 26Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 26 went to overtime.vs LegacyAncient22-20vs RED CanidsAncient19-16vs 9zNuke16-14vs 9zInferno16-13vs GalorysNuke16-13
Eternal Fire
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i56/141 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 141 maps they won, 56 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs K27Ancientfrom 8 downvs LilmixDust2from 7 downvs WBTCachefrom 7 downvs JiJieHaoAnubisfrom 7 downvs FAVBETOverpassfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i41/104 (39%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 104 maps they lost, 41 (39%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BetclicCacheled 9 · lost 4-13vs ARCREDDust2led 7 · lost 13-16vs Inner CircleAncientled 6 · lost 12-16vs BIG AcademyDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs HOTUCacheled 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs K27Ancientfrom 8 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BetclicCacheled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 30Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 30 went to overtime.vs AcendOverpass16-14vs ARCREDDust213-16vs Inner CircleAncient12-16vs HYPERSPIRITMirage16-12vs FlyQuestMirage14-16