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Predictions / Vitality vs 9z · match preview
Vitality vs 9z: CS2 match prediction · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Vitality
World #2 · 51-12
VS
2026-10-24 13:00 UTC
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
9z
World #15 · 60-30
PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
87%13%
84%
1.15.8Market · 6 books
16%The call · high confidence
Vitality are favoured: our model gives them 87% against 9z. Bookmakers lean Vitality at 84%. Strength clearly favours Vitality, record slightly favours Vitality, form clearly favours Vitality, firepower clearly favours Vitality, head-to-head slightly favours Vitality.
Likely mapsDust2 · Nuke · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Vitalitypull9z
Team strength1814
163683/17 VIT
Track record51–12
60–3066/34 VIT
Recent formWWWWW
LLWLW74/26 VIT
Roster rating1.19
1.1399/1 VIT
Head-to-head5 maps
2 maps67/33 VIT
Bookmakers imply 84% for Vitality (1.1 / 5.8); we land 3 points higher at 87%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (154 maps of Vitality, 216 of 9z). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: Vitality leads 2–1.
Bottom line: Vitality to beat 9z, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsVitality · avg 1.19 · star gap +0.25iStar gap: the best player rates 0.25 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
9z · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2mo ago
Vitality2 : 0
9z!4mo ago Vitality1 : 2 9z◆ same lineup7mo ago Vitality2 : 0 9z◆ same lineup
Vitality2 : 0 9z!⚠ Different lineup
Vitality
outjL
inmezii
Vitality1 : 2 9z◆ same lineup7mo ago Vitality2 : 0 9z◆ same lineup
Spirit#14-21-6
FURIA#311-22-6
Vitality vs FURIA
Sep 20WCache13-5Anubis13-8Sep 18WMirage13-8Dust213-5Sep 4WNuke6-13Cache13-11Dust213-4+2 earlier meetings
MOUZ#49-34-4
Aurora#512-42-6
Vitality vs Aurora
Oct 10WAnubis7-13Cache13-7Mirage13-8Sep 20WAnubis13-4Inferno11-13Mirage13-4Cache13-7Sep 19LAnubis7-13Inferno13-11Nuke8-13+3 earlier meetings
9z vs Aurora
Oct 16LCache11-13Inferno4-13Oct 14WInferno13-11Nuke13-1Oct 3LDust23-13Mirage11-13+1 earlier meeting
Falcons#65-73-3
Vitality vs Falcons
Oct 5WAnubis9-13Dust213-4Mirage13-8Jun 19LAnubis11-13Inferno13-11Dust211-13Apr 15LMirage10-13Dust213-6Nuke14-16+1 earlier meeting
Legacy#72-15-7
G2#86-31-2
Natus Vincere#1111-30-2
Vitality vs Natus Vincere
Oct 4WAnubis13-5Nuke5-13Mirage13-4May 16LDust213-11Anubis11-13Inferno3-13May 3WNuke16-12Anubis13-11Dust213-3+2 earlier meetings
9z vs Natus Vincere
Oct 5LNuke6-13Cache6-13Map lab
Vitality77%to win the Bo3 · most likely Vitality 2-0
If the veto goes
Vitality 77%how the series ends23% 9z
49%2-09%
28%2-114%
Vitality75%31-6vs9z25%26-17
84%Win60%
63%CT55%
62%T54%
55%Pistol47%
85%Conv83%
Vitality65%16-6vs9z35%26-20
73%Win57%
72%CT57%
39%T45%
59%Pistol53%
73%Conv82%
Vitality67%17-5vs9z33%23-15
77%Win61%
63%CT55%
50%T49%
55%Pistol54%
79%Conv78%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
VitalityDust29z
63%CT side55%
62%T side54%
55%Pistol47%
85%After win83%
36%After loss20%
VitalityNuke9z
72%CT side57%
39%T side45%
59%Pistol53%
73%After win82%
44%After loss12%
VitalityInferno9z
63%CT side55%
50%T side49%
55%Pistol54%
79%After win78%
40%After loss14%
Pistol rounds56% · 51% · Vitality win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol80% · 81% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol39% · 15% · Vitality fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Vitality vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapVIT9Z
AncientVIT ban100%2-063%15-9
Anubis9Z ban47%9-1050%1-1
Dust2VIT pick84%31-660%26-17
Nuke9Z pick73%16-657%26-20
MirageVIT ban68%19-958%14-10
Cache9Z ban88%7-140%2-3
Infernodecider77%17-561%23-15
Each team's usual first ban: Vitality Ancient · 9z Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Vitality
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i36/116 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 116 maps they won, 36 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs Lynn VisionDust2from 12 downvs Natus VincereNukefrom 11 downvs AuroraAnubisfrom 9 downvs AuroraMiragefrom 9 downvs FalconsDust2from 9 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i17/38 (45%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 38 maps they lost, 17 (45%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FURIAMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs FalconsMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs B8Infernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs Inner CircleCacheled 6 · lost 13-16vs AuroraAnubisled 6 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Lynn VisionDust2from 12 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FURIAMirageled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs EYEBALLERSAnubis19-16vs AuroraAncient25-22vs The MongolZMirage16-13vs PARIVISIONInferno16-13vs The MongolZOverpass16-13
9z
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i48/132 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 132 maps they won, 48 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs Fake do BiruOverpassfrom 9 downvs GameHuntersInfernofrom 8 downvs SharksOverpassfrom 7 downvs SharksNukefrom 6 downvs FalconsNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i29/84 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 84 maps they lost, 29 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Natus VincereNukeled 8 · lost 6-13vs RED CanidsNukeled 7 · lost 11-13vs SpiritMirageled 7 · lost 13-16vs VitalityNukeled 7 · lost 6-13vs MarsborneAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Fake do BiruOverpassfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Natus VincereNukeled 8 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 29Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 29 went to overtime.vs SharksNuke16-12vs Keyd StarsDust216-14vs Gaimin GladiatorsDust214-16vs RED CanidsOverpass16-14vs MIBRNuke14-16