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Predictions / FURIA vs FaZe · match preview
FURIA vs FaZe: CS2 match prediction · IEM Beijing 2026
IEM Beijing 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
60%40%
73%
1.283.38Market · 14 books
27%The call
FURIA are favoured: our model gives them 60% against FaZe. Bookmakers lean FURIA at 73%. Strength slightly favours FURIA, firepower clearly favours FaZe, head-to-head slightly favours FaZe.
Likely mapsMirage · Nuke · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
FURIApullFaZe
Team strength1708
163865/35 FUR
Track record44–29
30–3154/46 FUR
Recent formWWWWL
WWLWW53/47 FUR
Roster rating1.1
1.1372/28 FAZ
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 FAZ
Bookmakers imply 73% for FURIA (1.28 / 3.38); we land 13 points lower at 60%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (187 maps of FURIA, 146 of FaZe). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: FaZe leads 1–0.
Bottom line: FURIA to beat FaZe, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsFURIA · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
FaZe · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Spirit#13-51-2
Vitality#22-110-4
FURIA vs Vitality
Sep 20LCache5-13Anubis8-13Sep 18LMirage8-13Dust25-13Sep 4LNuke13-6Cache11-13Dust24-13+2 earlier meetings
MOUZ#46-60-2
FURIA vs MOUZ
Oct 9LNuke11-13Inferno6-13Oct 4LCache4-13Mirage7-13Sep 19WCache13-8Mirage16-19Nuke13-6+2 earlier meetings
FaZe vs MOUZ
Feb 3LMirage5-13Inferno6-13
Aurora#59-51-2
FURIA vs Aurora
Oct 17WDust213-8Inferno13-10Oct 6LDust213-8Mirage9-13Nuke9-13Aug 19WAncient13-11Nuke14-16Mirage13-9+3 earlier meetings
FaZe vs Aurora
Mar 18LNuke13-11Inferno8-13Dust210-13
Falcons#63-111-2
FURIA vs Falcons
Jun 21LMirage8-13Anubis8-13Inferno8-13May 15LMirage13-9Nuke20-22Dust217-19Apr 19LDust211-13Mirage11-13+2 earlier meetings
FaZe vs Falcons
Feb 15LAnubis9-13Dust213-11Ancient4-13
Legacy#73-52-0
G2#82-32-3
Natus Vincere#114-20-4
Map lab
FaZe69%to win the Bo3 · most likely FaZe 2-1
If the veto goes
FURIA 31%how the series ends69% FaZe
17%2-034%
14%2-135%
FURIA44%26-20vsFaZe56%17-10
57%Win63%
59%CT60%
44%T45%
49%Pistol54%
73%Conv76%
FURIA39%17-12vsFaZe61%16-7
59%Win70%
59%CT63%
50%T49%
55%Pistol61%
84%Conv78%
FURIA28%6-7vsFaZe72%8-3
46%Win73%
48%CT58%
49%T58%
42%Pistol50%
82%Conv91%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
FURIAMirageFaZe
59%CT side60%
44%T side45%
49%Pistol54%
73%After win76%
23%After loss32%
FURIANukeFaZe
59%CT side63%
50%T side49%
55%Pistol61%
84%After win78%
12%After loss11%
FURIACacheFaZe
48%CT side58%
49%T side58%
42%Pistol50%
82%After win91%
13%After loss18%
Pistol rounds50% · 56% · FaZe win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol78% · 79% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol18% · 22% · FaZe fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, FURIA vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapFURFAZ
AncientFUR ban42%5-742%13-18
InfernoFAZ ban59%16-110%0-6
MirageFUR pick57%26-2063%17-10
NukeFAZ pick59%17-1270%16-7
AnubisFUR ban38%3-531%4-9
Dust2FAZ ban59%22-1550%13-13
Cachedecider46%6-773%8-3
Each team's usual first ban: FURIA Ancient · FaZe Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
FURIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i31/103 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 103 maps they won, 31 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs G2Ancientfrom 10 downvs VitalityMiragefrom 7 downvs The MongolZDust2from 7 downvs Natus VincereNukefrom 7 downvs BETBOOMCachefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i30/84 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 84 maps they lost, 30 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs G2Anubisled 10 · lost 3-13vs BETBOOMNukeled 8 · lost 9-13vs AuroraMirageled 7 · lost 9-13vs AuroraDust2led 6 · lost 14-16vs FalconsNukeled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs G2Ancientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs G2Anubisled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs The MongolZInferno16-12vs SpiritMirage16-13vs FUTOverpass22-18vs FalconsMirage16-14vs PARIVISIONDust216-14
FaZe
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i25/74 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 74 maps they won, 25 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs The MongolZNukefrom 9 downvs paiNDust2from 6 downvs aimclubOverpassfrom 6 downvs DramaNukefrom 6 downvs PUREMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/71 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 71 maps they lost, 27 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PARIVISIONAncientled 7 · lost 11-13vs NemigaMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs Inner CircleMirageled 6 · lost 9-13vs NAVI JuniorAnubisled 6 · lost 9-13vs EnvyDust2led 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The MongolZNukefrom 9 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PARIVISIONAncientled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs paiNNuke13-16vs paiNDust216-13vs AstralisInferno14-16vs Passion UANuke16-12vs Passion UADust214-16