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Predictions / Alliance vs FaZe · match preview
Alliance vs FaZe: CS2 match prediction · RLG Tesla Cup 2026
Alliance
World #29 · 57-31
VS
2026-10-27 11:00 UTC
RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
FaZe
World #17 · 30-31
RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
36%64%
36%
2.561.46Market · 8 books
64%The call
FaZe are favoured: our model gives them 64% against Alliance. Bookmakers lean FaZe at 64%. Strength slightly favours FaZe, record slightly favours Alliance, form clearly favours FaZe, firepower clearly favours FaZe.
Likely mapsAnubis · Nuke · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
AlliancepullFaZe
Team strength1584
163862/38 FAZ
Track record57–31
30–3157/43 ALL
Recent formLLLLW
WWLWW82/18 FAZ
Roster rating1.1
1.1399/1 FAZ
Head-to-head2 maps2 maps50/50
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 36% for Alliance (2.56 / 1.46) and we land at 36%, the same read. This read is 97% our own signal (189 maps of Alliance, 146 of FaZe). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: split 1–1.
Bottom line: FaZe to beat Alliance, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsAlliance · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
FaZe · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents1mo ago
Alliance2 : 0
FaZe◆ same lineup5mo ago Alliance0 : 2 FaZe!
Alliance2 : 0 FaZe◆ same lineup5mo ago Alliance0 : 2 FaZe!⚠ Different lineup
Alliance
outMaiL09
inbobeksde
FaZe
outbroky
inJBOEN
Aurora#52-11-2
Alliance vs Aurora
Apr 1WInferno2-13Anubis13-9Overpass13-11FaZe vs Aurora
Mar 18LNuke13-11Inferno8-13Dust210-13
Legacy#70-22-0
Alliance vs Legacy
Sep 9LInferno4-13Dust26-13FaZe vs Legacy
Aug 13WCache13-6Mirage13-8
MIBR#120-20-1
Alliance vs MIBR
Sep 11LInferno4-13Cache9-13FaZe vs MIBR
Jul 2LAncient6-13
PARIVISION#130-12-4
Alliance vs PARIVISION
Jul 1LAncient4-13
9z#153-22-1
Astralis#162-12-6
Alliance vs Astralis
Oct 1WInferno16-14Cache5-13Nuke13-10
Ninjas in Pyjamas#191-20-2
FaZe vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
May 30LAncient11-13Nuke10-13
The MongolZ#200-22-1
Alliance vs The MongolZ
Oct 19LInferno8-13Dust211-13FaZe vs The MongolZ
Jul 31WNuke16-12Mirage7-13Ancient13-8Map lab
Alliance64%to win the Bo3 · most likely Alliance 2-1
If the veto goes
Alliance 64%how the series ends36% FaZe
27%2-014%
37%2-122%
Alliance78%19-10vsFaZe22%4-9
66%Win31%
51%CT37%
61%T56%
53%Pistol54%
87%Conv93%
Alliance35%17-15vsFaZe65%16-7
53%Win70%
54%CT63%
47%T49%
55%Pistol61%
80%Conv78%
Alliance63%15-12vsFaZe37%13-18
56%Win42%
55%CT55%
46%T48%
44%Pistol44%
88%Conv89%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
AllianceAnubisFaZe
51%CT side37%
61%T side56%
53%Pistol54%
87%After win93%
11%After loss42%
AllianceNukeFaZe
54%CT side63%
47%T side49%
55%Pistol61%
80%After win78%
17%After loss11%
AllianceAncientFaZe
55%CT side55%
46%T side48%
44%Pistol44%
88%After win89%
27%After loss14%
Pistol rounds51% · 51% · level, no edge
After a won pistol84% · 85% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol19% · 18% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Alliance vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
FaZe habitually bans Inferno, Alliance's strongest maps (Inferno, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 46/61), not an opponent read, so expect Alliance to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapALLFAZ
MirageALL ban0%0-363%17-10
InfernoFAZ ban68%32-150%0-6
AnubisALL pick66%19-1031%4-9
NukeFAZ pick53%17-1570%16-7
CacheALL ban0%0-473%8-3
Dust2FAZ ban57%13-1050%13-13
Ancientdecider56%15-1242%13-18
Each team's usual first ban: Alliance Mirage · FaZe Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Alliance
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i30/109 (28%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 109 maps they won, 30 (28%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 28% of their wins were comebacks, not 28% of all games.vs TYLOOAncientfrom 8 downvs UNiTYOverpassfrom 6 downvs fnaticInfernofrom 6 downvs 3DMAXInfernofrom 6 downvs 9zDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/79 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 79 maps they lost, 24 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 3DMAXDust2led 9 · lost 10-13vs 9INEAnubisled 8 · lost 15-19vs UNiTYAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs SharksNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs VP.ProdigyAnubisled 5 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs TYLOOAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 3DMAXDust2led 9 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs MetizportNuke19-17vs PhantomOverpass19-17vs WHITEBIRDInferno13-16vs VP.ProdigyAnubis14-16vs kONOAnubis16-13
FaZe
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i25/74 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 74 maps they won, 25 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs The MongolZNukefrom 9 downvs paiNDust2from 6 downvs aimclubOverpassfrom 6 downvs DramaNukefrom 6 downvs PUREMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/71 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 71 maps they lost, 27 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PARIVISIONAncientled 7 · lost 11-13vs NemigaMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs Inner CircleMirageled 6 · lost 9-13vs NAVI JuniorAnubisled 6 · lost 9-13vs EnvyDust2led 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The MongolZNukefrom 9 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PARIVISIONAncientled 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs paiNNuke13-16vs paiNDust216-13vs AstralisInferno14-16vs Passion UANuke16-12vs Passion UADust214-16