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Predictions / 100 Thieves vs Wildcard · match preview
100 Thieves vs Wildcard: CS2 match prediction · FiRe Last Chance 2026
FiRe Last Chance 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
69%31%
73%
1.283.4Market · 17 books
27%The call
100 Thieves are favoured: our model gives them 69% against Wildcard. Bookmakers lean 100 Thieves at 73%. Strength slightly favours 100 Thieves, firepower slightly favours 100 Thieves.
Likely mapsDust2 · Mirage · Nuke
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
100 ThievespullWildcard
Team strength1729
164368/32 100
Track record60–30
43–2857/43 100
Recent formWWWWL
WWWLW52/48 100
Roster rating1.14
1.1166/34 100
Bookmakers imply 73% for 100 Thieves (1.28 / 3.4); we land 4 points lower at 69%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (195 maps of 100 Thieves, 154 of Wildcard).
Bottom line: 100 Thieves to beat Wildcard, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratings100 Thieves · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Wildcard · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
100 Thieves
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
PARIVISION#120-20-2
100 Thieves vs PARIVISION
Aug 14LAnubis5-13Dust25-13Wildcard vs PARIVISION
Apr 8LMirage26-28Dust211-13
Liquid#232-10-2
100 Thieves vs Liquid
Oct 13WDust213-0Inferno8-13Mirage13-9Wildcard vs Liquid
Sep 28LInferno4-13Anubis9-13
Sangal#412-00-1
100 Thieves vs Sangal
Oct 16WNuke13-8Dust213-5Wildcard vs Sangal
Mar 28LInferno11-13
HOTU#432-30-2
Wildcard vs HOTU
Sep 9LMirage7-13Cache5-13
K27#441-40-2
Wildcard vs K27
Jul 16LMirage8-13Dust213-16
Nemesis#461-22-0
100 Thieves vs Nemesis
May 30LInferno6-13Ancient16-14Mirage4-13Wildcard vs Nemesis
Sep 11WInferno13-9Dust216-13
BBL#483-20-2
Wildcard vs BBL
Sep 12LNuke10-13Inferno12-16
FOKUS#522-16-4
100 Thieves vs FOKUS
Mar 9WAncient13-10Inferno14-16Nuke13-8Wildcard vs FOKUS
May 24WInferno13-7Dust210-13Nuke13-6May 23WInferno13-3Dust213-8Apr 6WNuke2-13Inferno16-14Mirage13-7+1 earlier meeting
Map lab
100 Thieves61%to win the Bo3 · most likely 100 Thieves 2-0
If the veto goes
100 Thieves 61%how the series ends39% Wildcard
43%2-09%
19%2-129%
100 Thieves80%34-9vsWildcard20%15-17
79%Win47%
62%CT48%
55%T57%
49%Pistol56%
78%Conv86%
100 Thieves54%15-10vsWildcard46%19-15
60%Win56%
65%CT57%
46%T45%
54%Pistol47%
65%Conv84%
100 Thieves39%20-14vsWildcard61%21-9
59%Win70%
60%CT62%
46%T55%
51%Pistol65%
91%Conv81%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
100 ThievesDust2Wildcard
62%CT side48%
55%T side57%
49%Pistol56%
78%After win86%
21%After loss29%
100 ThievesMirageWildcard
65%CT side57%
46%T side45%
54%Pistol47%
65%After win84%
26%After loss22%
100 ThievesNukeWildcard
60%CT side62%
46%T side55%
51%Pistol65%
91%After win81%
27%After loss24%
Pistol rounds51% · 56% · Wildcard win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol79% · 84% · Wildcard keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol24% · 25% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, 100 Thieves vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Wildcard habitually bans Ancient, 100 Thieves's strongest maps (Inferno, Dust2, Ancient, Overpass, Mirage, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Ancient 70/72), not an opponent read, so expect 100 Thieves to fight the veto for Dust2.
Map100WIL
Anubis100 ban44%7-957%4-3
AncientWIL ban62%26-16n/a0g
100 Thieves on Ancient
W
Bounty Hunters13–113d agoL
HEROIC4–1315d agoW
Voca13–61mo agoW
Lilmix13–31mo agoWAnteiku13–31mo agoLHEROIC17–191mo agoL
Astralis6–131mo agoW
3DMAX13–92mo agoWildcard on Ancient
no recent maps
Dust2100 pick79%34-947%15-17
MirageWIL pick60%15-1056%19-15
Cache100 ban67%2-167%4-2
InfernoWIL ban62%18-1152%16-15
Nukedecider59%20-1470%21-9
Each team's usual first ban: 100 Thieves Mirage · Wildcard Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
100 Thieves
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i37/124 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 124 maps they won, 37 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs JiJieHaoDust2from 10 downvs Nuclear TigeRESAncientfrom 7 downvs FalconsAnubisfrom 7 downvs NemesisAncientfrom 6 downvs UrsaInfernofrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i30/71 (42%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 71 maps they lost, 30 (42%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FalconsNukeled 10 · lost 4-13vs TDKAncientled 8 · lost 13-16vs JiJieHaoCacheled 8 · lost 5-13vs FOKUSInfernoled 6 · lost 14-16vs HOTUDust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs JiJieHaoDust2from 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FalconsNukeled 10 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs Ninjas in PyjamasAncient16-12vs BetBoomNuke16-12vs FlyQuestNuke16-14vs FOKUSInferno14-16vs Johnny SpeedsInferno19-15
Wildcard
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i26/88 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 88 maps they won, 26 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs HachaMiragefrom 10 downvs BetBoomOverpassfrom 7 downvs BESTIANukefrom 7 downvs Passion UAMiragefrom 6 downvs LAGMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i22/66 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 66 maps they lost, 22 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PARIVISIONDust2led 7 · lost 11-13vs K27Dust2led 7 · lost 13-16vs FOKUSDust2led 5 · lost 9-13vs The MongolZDust2led 5 · lost 11-13vs VocaOverpassled 5 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs HachaMiragefrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PARIVISIONDust2led 7 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs SharksNuke12-16vs LAGInferno16-13vs Fisher CollegeMirage22-19vs FOKUSInferno16-14vs PARIVISIONMirage26-28