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Predictions / Inner Circle vs Betclic · match preview
Inner Circle vs Betclic: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 6
Inner Circle
World #38 · 45-36
VS
2026-11-17 11:00 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 6 · Best of 3
Betclic
World #56 · 48-43
Stake Ranked Episode 6 · Best of 3
43%57%
53%
1.751.95Market · 4 books
47%The call
Betclic are favoured: our model gives them 57% against Inner Circle. Bookmakers lean Inner Circle at 53%. Strength slightly favours Betclic, form clearly favours Betclic, firepower clearly favours Betclic, head-to-head slightly favours Betclic.
Likely mapsDust2 · Anubis · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
Inner CirclepullBetclic
Team strength1620
166058/42 BET
Track record45–36
48–4353/47 INN
Recent formLLWLL
WWWWL76/24 BET
Roster rating1.1
1.1182/18 BET
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 BET
Bookmakers imply 53% for Inner Circle (1.75 / 1.95); we land 10 points lower at 43%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (183 maps of Inner Circle, 209 of Betclic). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Betclic leads 1–0.
Bottom line: Betclic to beat Inner Circle, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsInner Circle · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawy★ | 1.11 | 83.7 | 74.7% | 55% | 1.19 |
| headtr1ck | 1.29 | 73.1 | 76.2% | 34% | 1.15 |
| cptkurtka023 | 0.97 | 72.6 | 71.9% | 61% | 1.11 |
| zeRRoFIX | 1.03 | 73.5 | 73.4% | 57% | 1.07 |
| onic | 0.89 | 65.8 | 70.7% | 52% | 1 |
Betclic · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Inner Circle
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Nemiga#90-20-1
Inner Circle vs Nemiga
Sep 9LAnubis10-13Ancient7-13Betclic vs Nemiga
Sep 4LAnubis11-13
Liquid#181-23-3
Astralis#191-21-2
Inner Circle vs Astralis
Oct 29LAncient16-14Dust211-13Cache8-13Betclic vs Astralis
Sep 25LNuke16-14Ancient8-13Cache0-13
Eternal Fire#222-05-4
Inner Circle vs Eternal Fire
Feb 15WAncient16-12Mirage13-9
Ninjas in Pyjamas#232-31-2
Betclic vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Oct 12LAncient3-13Cache13-11Nuke5-13
HOTU#301-40-4
Sangal#412-20-2
Betclic vs Sangal
Oct 12LMirage5-13Anubis13-16
BBL#471-01-2
Inner Circle vs BBL
Sep 18WCache13-7Betclic vs BBL
Oct 19LCache9-13Nuke13-11Mirage5-13Map lab
Betclic58%to win the Bo3 · most likely Betclic 2-1
If the veto goes
Inner Circle 42%how the series ends58% Betclic
24%2-026%
18%2-132%
Inner Circle54%26-16vsBetclic46%14-10
62%Win58%
55%CT53%
54%T47%
50%Pistol46%
76%Conv86%
Inner Circle44%9-8vsBetclic56%23-16
53%Win59%
54%CT50%
51%T59%
65%Pistol60%
77%Conv83%
Inner Circle36%4-3vsBetclic64%10-4
57%Win71%
55%CT55%
46%T53%
43%Pistol57%
67%Conv88%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
Inner CircleDust2Betclic
55%CT side53%
54%T side47%
50%Pistol46%
76%After win86%
33%After loss19%
Inner CircleAnubisBetclic
54%CT side50%
51%T side59%
65%Pistol60%
77%After win83%
0%After loss16%
Inner CircleCacheBetclic
55%CT side55%
46%T side53%
43%Pistol57%
67%After win88%
13%After loss9%
Pistol rounds53% · 55% · level, no edge
After a won pistol76% · 85% · Betclic keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol24% · 16% · Inner Circle fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Inner Circle vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapINNBET
InfernoINN bann/a0g0%0-4
Inner Circle on Inferno
no recent maps
MirageBET ban49%19-2050%15-15
Dust2INN pick62%26-1658%14-10
AnubisBET pick53%9-859%23-16
NukeINN ban48%12-1355%24-20
AncientBET ban56%22-1749%17-18
Cachedecider57%4-371%10-4
Each team's usual first ban: Inner Circle Inferno · Betclic Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Inner Circle
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i31/99 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 99 maps they won, 31 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs AstralisAncientfrom 9 downvs Eternal FireAncientfrom 6 downvs FaZeMiragefrom 6 downvs 9INEAncientfrom 6 downvs VitalityCachefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i31/83 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 83 maps they lost, 31 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs 3DMAXDust2led 7 · lost 8-13vs NemesisMirageled 6 · lost 16-19vs K27Anubisled 6 · lost 9-13vs Friendly CampersAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AstralisAncientfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZAncientled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 27Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 27 went to overtime.vs FAVBETNuke17-19vs NemesisMirage16-19vs 3DMAXNuke13-16vs WHITEBIRDOverpass16-13vs WHITEBIRDDust214-16
Betclic
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/107 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 107 maps they won, 35 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs Eternal FireCachefrom 9 downvs 9INEDust2from 7 downvs UNiTYCachefrom 7 downvs EYEBALLERSAnubisfrom 6 downvs AMNukefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/101 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 101 maps they lost, 25 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EYEBALLERSAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13vs The Last ResortCacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs Eternal FireAnubisled 6 · lost 7-13vs BBLCacheled 6 · lost 9-13vs BIGAncientled 5 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Eternal FireCachefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EYEBALLERSAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs Fingers CrossedNuke12-16vs Fingers CrossedDust216-12vs GenOneNuke19-17vs UNiTYMirage14-16vs MOUZ NXTMirage16-13