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Predictions / LFO 10 vs MOUZ NXT · match preview
LFO 10 vs MOUZ NXT: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 10
LFO
LFO 10
World #192 · 8-11
VS
2026-11-09 14:30 UTC
European Pro League Series 10 · Best of 3
MOUZ NXT
World #152 · 60-71
European Pro League Series 10 · Best of 3
64%36%
51%
1.811.87Market · 1 books
49%The call
LFO 10 are favoured: our model gives them 64% against MOUZ NXT. Bookmakers lean LFO 10 at 51%. Strength slightly favours LFO 10, form clearly favours LFO 10, firepower clearly favours LFO 10, head-to-head slightly favours MOUZ NXT.
Likely mapsMirage · Anubis · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LFO 10pullMOUZ NXT
Team strength1482
142063/37 LFO
Track record8–11
60–7152/48 MOU
Recent formWWLLW
LLLLW80/20 LFO
Roster rating1.14
1.0286/14 LFO
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 MOU
Bookmakers imply 51% for LFO 10 (1.81 / 1.87); we land 13 points higher at 64%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 91% our own signal (44 maps of LFO 10, 297 of MOUZ NXT). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: MOUZ NXT leads 1–0.
Bottom line: LFO 10 to beat MOUZ NXT, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLFO 10 · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.2iStar gap: the best player rates 0.2 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
MOUZ NXT · avg 1.02 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
LFO 10
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
BAKS#962-10-2
LFO 10 vs BAKS
Oct 21WMirage7-13Cache13-7Ancient13-4MOUZ NXT vs BAKS
Aug 30LNuke11-13Dust25-13
The Last Resort#1310-20-2
LFO 10 vs The Last Resort
Oct 19LAncient4-13Nuke8-13MOUZ NXT vs The Last Resort
Sep 7LAnubis11-13Ancient6-13LAVLavked#2030-22-4
LFO 10 vs Lavked
Oct 17LMirage11-13Dust29-13
ENCE0-24-2
LFO 10 vs ENCE
Oct 8LInferno10-13Mirage9-13Map lab
LFO 1060%to win the Bo3 · most likely LFO 10 2-1
If the veto goes
LFO 10 60%how the series ends40% MOUZ NXT
28%2-021%
32%2-118%
LFO 1058%7-7vsMOUZ NXT42%22-31
50%Win42%
63%CT56%
40%T41%
46%Pistol46%
85%Conv80%
LFO 1049%2-3vsMOUZ NXT51%14-18
40%Win44%
50%CT51%
48%T44%
60%Pistol42%
67%Conv74%
LFO 1063%4-3vsMOUZ NXT37%7-10
57%Win41%
54%CT47%
55%T44%
50%Pistol38%
100%Conv77%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LFO 10MirageMOUZ NXT
63%CT side56%
40%T side41%
46%Pistol46%
85%After win80%
27%After loss12%
LFO 10AnubisMOUZ NXT
50%CT side51%
48%T side44%
60%Pistol42%
67%After win74%
50%After loss14%
LFO 10CacheMOUZ NXT
54%CT side47%
55%T side44%
50%Pistol38%
100%After win77%
0%After loss14%
Pistol rounds50% · 44% · LFO 10 win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol85% · 78% · LFO 10 keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol23% · 13% · LFO 10 fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, LFO 10 vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapLFOMOU
NukeLFO ban50%1-149%30-31
InfernoMOU ban50%1-10%0-1
MOUZ NXT on Inferno
L
Inner Circle Academy6–133mo agoMirageLFO pick50%7-742%22-31
AnubisMOU pick40%2-344%14-18
Dust2LFO ban17%1-543%24-32
AncientMOU ban38%3-550%22-22
Cachedecider57%4-341%7-10
Each team's usual first ban: LFO 10 Nuke · MOUZ NXT Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
LFO 10
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/19 (47%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 19 maps they won, 9 (47%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 47% of their wins were comebacks, not 47% of all games.vs 6yuBoJlblMiragefrom 9 downvs BAKSCachefrom 6 downvs MAYBEDust2from 5 downvs Four MagicMiragefrom 4 downvs MASONICMiragefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i9/25 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 25 maps they lost, 9 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MAYBEMirageled 7 · lost 6-13vs Spirit AcademyDust2led 6 · lost 9-13vs FOKUSCacheled 6 · lost 7-13vs ENCEMirageled 4 · lost 9-13vs MOUZ NXTCacheled 3 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs 6yuBoJlblMiragefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MAYBEMirageled 7 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi27% · 4Close maps (≤3) · OT27% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 4 went to overtime.vs FOKUSMirage13-16vs MAYBEDust216-13vs Four MagicAncient14-16vs MASONICMirage22-18
MOUZ NXT
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i50/130 (38%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 130 maps they won, 50 (38%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 38% of their wins were comebacks, not 38% of all games.vs KUUSAMOAncientfrom 10 downvs FaZe Up NextAncientfrom 10 downvs Nuclear TigeRESNukefrom 8 downvs Lazer CatsNukefrom 7 downvs DONSTUNukefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i58/161 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 161 maps they lost, 58 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13vs FaZe Up NextMirageled 9 · lost 12-16vs AcendAnubisled 8 · lost 13-16vs PCIFICDust2led 8 · lost 5-13vs TDKOverpassled 7 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs KUUSAMOAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 38Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 38 went to overtime.vs Friendly CampersNuke16-13vs Friendly CampersDust216-13vs FAVBETNuke14-16vs AaBAnubis16-14vs FAVBETNuke14-16