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Predictions / G2 Ares vs PRIVATE · match preview
G2 Ares vs PRIVATE: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 11
G2 Ares
World #98 · 55-58
VS
2026-11-08 14:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 11 · Best of 3
PRIVATE
World #48 · 14-6
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 11 · Best of 3
33%67%
23%
41.2Market · 7 books
77%The call
PRIVATE are favoured: our model gives them 67% against G2 Ares. Bookmakers lean PRIVATE at 77%. Strength clearly favours PRIVATE, record slightly favours PRIVATE.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
G2 ArespullPRIVATE
Team strength1506
163776/24 PRI
Track record55–58
14–669/31 PRI
Recent formWLWLL
LWWWW54/46 PRI
Roster rating1.07
1.1655/45 PRI
Bookmakers imply 23% for G2 Ares (4 / 1.2); we land 10 points higher at 33%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 91% our own signal (258 maps of G2 Ares, 44 of PRIVATE).
Bottom line: PRIVATE to beat G2 Ares, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsG2 Ares · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
PRIVATE · avg 1.16 · star gap +0.11iStar gap: the best player rates 0.11 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H4SAN4TOR★ | 1.12 | 91.3 | 74.2% | 50% | 1.27 |
| sowalio | 1.14 | 76.4 | 74.1% | 59% | 1.18 |
| z1k4 | 1.25 | 76.5 | 73.8% | 31% | 1.18 |
| 1eeR | 1.03 | 76.5 | 72.4% | 45% | 1.13 |
| sh1nejezzz | 0.98 | 67 | 77.1% | 63% | 1.03 |
Recent form
G2 Ares
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
K27#451-21-2
G2 Ares vs K27
Mar 19LAncient5-13Dust213-8Mirage8-13PRIVATE vs K27
Oct 1LAncient13-10Nuke11-13Cache5-13
Johnny Speeds#780-41-2
PRIVATE vs Johnny Speeds
Oct 12LCache9-13Mirage13-7Nuke7-13
BET-M#940-21-0
G2 Ares vs BET-M
Mar 4LAnubis9-13Ancient10-13PRIVATE vs BET-M
Oct 11WDust213-8
OG#1040-31-2
PRIVATE vs OG
Nov 7LAncient10-13Cache13-3Dust24-13
Omega#1262-12-0
G2 Ares vs Omega
Mar 30WOverpass13-3Mirage11-13Ancient13-8PRIVATE vs Omega
Oct 31WAncient13-9Dust213-5
Optibet#1552-02-0
G2 Ares vs Optibet
Nov 7WAncient13-8Cache13-10PRIVATE vs Optibet
Nov 7WAncient13-8Mirage13-11
Honvéd#2183-22-1
PRIVATE vs Honvéd
Oct 15WCache11-13Ancient16-12Dust213-6Map lab
PRIVATE86%to win the Bo3 · most likely PRIVATE 2-0
If the veto goes
G2 Ares 14%how the series ends86% PRIVATE
5%2-062%
9%2-124%
G2 Ares22%23-27vsPRIVATE78%8-2
46%Win80%
54%CT58%
46%T52%
53%Pistol50%
81%Conv80%
G2 Ares21%17-25vsPRIVATE79%7-2
40%Win78%
46%CT58%
46%T52%
51%Pistol67%
58%Conv92%
G2 Ares28%23-22vsPRIVATE72%7-2
51%Win78%
52%CT48%
47%T62%
51%Pistol39%
80%Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
G2 AresMiragePRIVATE
54%CT side58%
46%T side52%
53%Pistol50%
81%After win80%
23%After loss0%
G2 AresDust2PRIVATE
46%CT side58%
46%T side52%
51%Pistol67%
58%After win92%
15%After loss0%
G2 AresAncientPRIVATE
52%CT side48%
47%T side62%
51%Pistol39%
80%After win86%
20%After loss36%
Pistol rounds52% · 52% · level, no edge
After a won pistol74% · 86% · PRIVATE keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol20% · 15% · G2 Ares fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, G2 Ares vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapG2 PRI
NukeG2 bann/a0g50%2-2
G2 Ares on Nuke
no recent maps
InfernoPRI ban56%31-24n/a0g
G2 Ares on Inferno
L
STATE10–1314d agoL
The Last Resort4–1315d agoW
mellren16–1320d agoL
ex-666611–1322d agoW
BAKS16–1323d agoWThe Last Resort13–825d agoW
INFINITE13–71mo agoW
RBLS13–41mo agoPRIVATE on Inferno
no recent maps
MirageG2 pick46%23-2780%8-2
Dust2PRI pick40%17-2578%7-2
AnubisG2 ban38%9-1575%3-1
CachePRI ban52%12-1138%3-5
Ancientdecider51%23-2278%7-2
Each team's usual first ban: G2 Ares Nuke · PRIVATE Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
G2 Ares
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i49/125 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 125 maps they won, 49 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs The Last ResortCachefrom 11 downvs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs MisaInfernofrom 9 downvs FamalicãoAncientfrom 9 downvs AzuolasInfernofrom 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i47/133 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 133 maps they lost, 47 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 10 · lost 6-13vs BAKSCacheled 10 · lost 3-13vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs OGDust2led 9 · lost 4-13vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The Last ResortCachefrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 10 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi34% · 45Close maps (≤3) · OT34% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 45 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16
PRIVATE
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i13/30 (43%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 30 maps they won, 13 (43%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 43% of their wins were comebacks, not 43% of all games.vs Johnny SpeedsMiragefrom 6 downvs UPGRADEDust2from 5 downvs Fire FluxMiragefrom 5 downvs Nuclear TigeRESAnubisfrom 5 downvs K27Ancientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i7/14 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 14 maps they lost, 7 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs The MongolZMirageled 7 · lost 6-13vs HonvédCacheled 6 · lost 11-13vs OGAncientled 6 · lost 10-13vs K27Nukeled 5 · lost 11-13vs GamerLegionCacheled 4 · lost 12-16
Biggest comebackifrom 6 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Johnny SpeedsMiragefrom 6 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs The MongolZMirageled 7 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi41% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT41% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs Nuclear TigeRESDust214-16vs GamerLegionCache12-16vs GamerLegionAncient16-14vs fnaticDust219-17vs HonvédAncient16-12