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Predictions / G2 Ares vs Lunacy · match preview
G2 Ares vs Lunacy: CS2 match prediction · European Pro League Series 10
G2 Ares
World #98 · 55-60
VS
2026-11-11 11:30 UTC
European Pro League Series 10 · Best of 3
Lunacy
World #– · 1-0
European Pro League Series 10 · Best of 3
45%55%
51%
1.81.88Market · 1 books
49%The call
Lunacy are favoured: our model gives them 55% against G2 Ares. Bookmakers lean G2 Ares at 51%. Record clearly favours Lunacy, firepower clearly favours Lunacy.
Likely mapsInferno · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
G2 ArespullLunacy
Team strength1490
151455/45 LUN
Track record55–60
1–076/24 LUN
Recent formLLWLW
W54/46 LUN
Roster rating1.06
1.2498/2 LUN
Bookmakers imply 51% for G2 Ares (1.8 / 1.88); we land 6 points lower at 45%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 44% our own signal (263 maps of G2 Ares, 2 of Lunacy; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Lunacy to beat G2 Ares, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsG2 Ares · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Lunacy · avg 1.24 · star gap +0.18iStar gap: the best player rates 0.18 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| xm1nd★ | 1.44 | 74.9 | 75.9% | 24% | 1.42 |
| z3ndeR | 1.35 | 75.4 | 74.5% | 49% | 1.33 |
| saizius | 1.29 | 87 | 81.8% | 50% | 1.26 |
| k4nfuz | 1.21 | 68.8 | 80.7% | 66% | 1.19 |
| 1NVISIBLEE | 0.88 | 85.7 | 65.1% | 60% | 0.98 |
Recent form
G2 Ares
Lunacy
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsNo prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.
Map lab
Lunacy52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Lunacy 2-0
If the veto goes
G2 Ares 48%how the series ends52% Lunacy
23%2-027%
25%2-125%
G2 Ares50%31-24thinLunacy50%0-0
56%Win–
54%CT–
50%T–
51%Pistol–
73%Conv–
G2 Ares46%17-26vsLunacy54%1-0
40%Win100%
46%CT67%
46%T33%
52%Pistol100%
58%Conv100%
G2 Ares50%13-12thinLunacy50%0-0
52%Win–
50%CT–
46%T–
48%Pistol–
67%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
G2 AresInfernoLunacy
54%CT side–
50%T side–
51%Pistol–
73%After win–
35%After loss–
G2 AresDust2Lunacy
46%CT side67%
46%T side33%
52%Pistol100%
58%After win100%
15%After loss–
G2 AresCacheLunacy
50%CT side–
46%T side–
48%Pistol–
67%After win–
4%After loss–
Pistol rounds51% · 100% · Lunacy win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol66% · 100% · Lunacy keep the momentum more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, G2 Ares vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapG2 LUN
NukeG2 bann/a0gn/a0g
G2 Ares on Nuke
no recent maps
Lunacy on Nuke
no recent maps
MirageLUN ban45%23-28100%1-0
InfernoG2 pick56%31-24n/a0g
G2 Ares on Inferno
L
STATE10–1315d agoL
The Last Resort4–1316d agoW
mellren16–1321d agoL
ex-666611–1323d agoW
BAKS16–1324d agoWThe Last Resort13–826d agoW
INFINITE13–71mo agoW
RBLS13–41mo agoLunacy on Inferno
no recent maps
Dust2LUN pick40%17-26100%1-0
AnubisG2 ban38%9-15n/a0g
G2 Ares on Anubis
L
FORZE Reload8–134d agoLSTATE14–1615d agoWoverTIME13–916d agoWThe Last Resort13–616d agoL
Sangal13–161mo agoL
NAVI Junior11–131mo agoLRBLS2–131mo agoLNAVI Junior8–132mo agoLunacy on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientLUN ban50%23-23n/a0g
G2 Ares on Ancient
L
Inner Circle Academy1–131d agoW
Optibet13–82d agoL
OG6–132d agoWThe Last Resort13–93d agoLThe Last Resort6–1316d agoW
Illyrians13–719d agoLmellren14–1621d agoLThe Last Resort10–1326d agoLunacy on Ancient
no recent maps
Cachedecider52%13-12n/a0g
G2 Ares on Cache
L
PRIVATE3–131d agoWInner Circle Academy16–121d agoWOptibet13–102d agoWThe Last Resort13–23d agoWoverTIME13–616d agoLIllyrians3–1319d agoLBAKS3–1324d agoWThe Last Resort13–926d agoLunacy on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: G2 Ares Nuke · Lunacy ?.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
G2 Ares
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i50/126 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 126 maps they won, 50 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs The Last ResortCachefrom 11 downvs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs MisaInfernofrom 9 downvs FamalicãoAncientfrom 9 downvs AzuolasInfernofrom 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i47/137 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 137 maps they lost, 47 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 10 · lost 6-13vs BAKSCacheled 10 · lost 3-13vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs OGDust2led 9 · lost 4-13vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The Last ResortCachefrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 10 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 47Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 47 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16
Lunacy
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/2 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 1 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs MAYBEDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/0 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 0 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MAYBEDust2from 5 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni0 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs MAYBEDust219-15