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G2 Ares vs Lunacy: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · European Pro League Series 10

G2 Ares
World #98 · 55-60
VS
2026-11-11 11:30 UTC
European Pro League Series 10 · Best of 3
Lunacy
World #– · 1-0
European Pro League Series 10 · Best of 3
45%
Win probability · thin data
55%
51%
1.81.88Market · 1 booksBookmakerG2 LUNGGBet1.81.88
49%
The call

Lunacy are favoured: our model gives them 55% against G2 Ares. Bookmakers lean G2 Ares at 51%. Record clearly favours Lunacy, firepower clearly favours Lunacy.

Likely mapsInferno · Dust2 · Cache

Firepower

roster ratings

G2 Ares · avg 1.06 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
Junyme★1.1374.672.4%41%1.15
TMKj0.9875.769.7%65%1.12
hitori0.9776.271.1%52%1.09
yksjupe0.886870.5%52%1.01
SHiNE0.8261.769%55%0.93

Lunacy · avg 1.24 · star gap +0.18iStar gap: the best player rates 0.18 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.

PlayerK-DADRKASTHSRating
xm1nd★1.4474.975.9%24%1.42
z3ndeR1.3575.474.5%49%1.33
saizius1.298781.8%50%1.26
k4nfuz1.2168.880.7%66%1.19
1NVISIBLEE0.8885.765.1%60%0.98

Recent form

G2 Ares

PRIVATE1d ago0-2Inner Circle AcademyComebackCB6StompStomp1-131d ago1-2Optibet2d ago2-0OGPistolsPist4/42d ago0-2The Last ResortPistolsPist3/4StompStomp13-23d ago2-0FORZE ReloadOvertimeOT4d ago0-2STATEOvertimeOT15d ago0-2overTIMEComebackCB616d ago2-0The Last ResortUpsetUpset16d ago1-2IllyriansUpsetUpset19d ago1-2mellrenComebackCB7OvertimeOT21d ago2-1ex-6666StompStomp2-1323d ago0-2BAKSComebackCB6OvertimeOT24d ago1-2The Last Resort26d ago2-1SangalOvertimeOT1mo ago1-2

Lunacy

MAYBEPistolsPist4/4OvertimeOT2d ago2-0

Head-to-head

past meetings & common opponents
No prior meetings or shared opponents in the sampled window.

Map lab

Lunacy52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Lunacy 2-0
If the veto goes
G2 Ares 48%how the series ends52% Lunacy
23%2-027%
25%2-125%
Map 1InfernoG2 Ares pick
G2 Ares50%31-24thinLunacy50%0-0
56%Win–
54%CT–
50%T–
51%Pistol–
73%Conv–
Map 2Dust2Lunacy pick
G2 Ares46%17-26vsLunacy54%1-0
40%Win100%
46%CT67%
46%T33%
52%Pistol100%
58%Conv100%
Map 3Cachedecider
G2 Ares50%13-12thinLunacy50%0-0
52%Win–
50%CT–
46%T–
48%Pistol–
67%Conv–

Pistol, eco & sides

who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team owns

CT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.

G2 AresInfernoLunacy
54%CT side–
50%T side–
51%Pistol–
73%After win–
35%After loss–
G2 AresDust2Lunacy
46%CT side67%
46%T side33%
52%Pistol100%
58%After win100%
15%After loss–
G2 AresCacheLunacy
50%CT side–
46%T side–
48%Pistol–
67%After win–
4%After loss–
Pistol rounds51% · 100% · Lunacy win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol66% · 100% · Lunacy keep the momentum more often

Projected veto

likely picks & bans
ihow this projection works

A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, G2 Ares vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.

Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapG2 LUN
NukeG2 bann/a0gn/a0g
G2 Ares on Nuke
no recent maps
Lunacy on Nuke
no recent maps
MirageLUN ban45%23-28100%1-0
G2 Ares on Mirage
LPRIVATE5–131d agoLIllyrians10–1319d agoWmellren13–1021d agoLNAVI Junior5–131mo agoWFalcons Force13–71mo agoLSTATE9–131mo agoLNAVI Junior6–132mo agoLLeo7–132mo ago
Lunacy on Mirage
WMAYBE13–62d ago
InfernoG2 pick56%31-24n/a0g
G2 Ares on Inferno
LSTATE10–1315d agoLThe Last Resort4–1316d agoWmellren16–1321d agoLex-666611–1323d agoWBAKS16–1324d agoWThe Last Resort13–826d agoWINFINITE13–71mo agoWRBLS13–41mo ago
Lunacy on Inferno
no recent maps
Dust2LUN pick40%17-26100%1-0
G2 Ares on Dust2
LInner Circle Academy12–161d agoLOG4–132d agoLFORZE Reload13–164d agoLex-66662–1323d agoLBAKS10–1324d agoLFamalicão7–131mo agoLINOX Division6–132mo agoLBlack Phoenix6–132mo ago
Lunacy on Dust2
WMAYBE19–152d ago
AnubisG2 ban38%9-15n/a0g
G2 Ares on Anubis
LFORZE Reload8–134d agoLSTATE14–1615d agoWoverTIME13–916d agoWThe Last Resort13–616d agoLSangal13–161mo agoLNAVI Junior11–131mo agoLRBLS2–131mo agoLNAVI Junior8–132mo ago
Lunacy on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientLUN ban50%23-23n/a0g
G2 Ares on Ancient
LInner Circle Academy1–131d agoWOptibet13–82d agoLOG6–132d agoWThe Last Resort13–93d agoLThe Last Resort6–1316d agoWIllyrians13–719d agoLmellren14–1621d agoLThe Last Resort10–1326d ago
Lunacy on Ancient
no recent maps
Cachedecider52%13-12n/a0g
G2 Ares on Cache
LPRIVATE3–131d agoWInner Circle Academy16–121d agoWOptibet13–102d agoWThe Last Resort13–23d agoWoverTIME13–616d agoLIllyrians3–1319d agoLBAKS3–1324d agoWThe Last Resort13–926d ago
Lunacy on Cache
no recent maps
Each team's usual first ban: G2 Ares Nuke · Lunacy ?.

Mentality & map flow

comebacks, blown leads
Hover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.

G2 Ares

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i50/126 (40%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 126 maps they won, 50 (40%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 40% of their wins were comebacks, not 40% of all games.vs The Last ResortCachefrom 11 downvs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs MisaInfernofrom 9 downvs FamalicãoAncientfrom 9 downvs AzuolasInfernofrom 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i47/137 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 137 maps they lost, 47 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 10 · lost 6-13vs BAKSCacheled 10 · lost 3-13vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs OGDust2led 9 · lost 4-13vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs The Last ResortCachefrom 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 10 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 47Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 47 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16

Lunacy

Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/2 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 1 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs MAYBEDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i0/0 (0%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 0 maps they lost, 0 (0%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.none in the sample
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MAYBEDust2from 5 down · won 19-15
Biggest lead blowni0 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.none in the sample
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs MAYBEDust219-15

G2 Ares vs Lunacy FAQ

Who is favored to win G2 Ares vs Lunacy?

Lunacy are favored with a 55% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.

What are the betting odds for G2 Ares vs Lunacy?

Bookmakers price G2 Ares at 1.8 and Lunacy at 1.88 (implied 51% vs 49%).

When do G2 Ares and Lunacy play?

G2 Ares vs Lunacy is scheduled for 2026-11-11 11:30 UTC at European Pro League Series 10.