Matches / Upcoming / MOUZ vs NRG
MOUZ vs NRG: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026
MOUZ
World #3 · 37-20
VS
2026-09-17 10:00 UTC
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
NRG
World #50 · 31-22
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★
70%30%
89%
1.058.5Market · 9 books
11%The call
MOUZ are favoured: our model gives them 70% against NRG. Bookmakers lean MOUZ at 89%. Strength slightly favours MOUZ, firepower clearly favours NRG, head-to-head clearly favours MOUZ.
Likely mapsMirage · Cache · Inferno
Firepower
roster ratingsMOUZ · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.05iStar gap: the best player rates 0.05 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
NRG · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
MOUZ
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents4mo ago MOUZ2 : 1
NRG!8mo ago MOUZ2 : 0 NRG!
MOUZ2 : 1 NRG!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ
outjL
inPR
NRG
outdaps, oSee
inJeorge, hallzerk
MOUZ2 : 0 NRG!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ
outBrollan, Jimpphat
inPR, xelex
NRG
outbr0, oSee
inGrim, hallzerk
Falcons#25-31-4
FURIA#41-41-2
NRG vs FURIA
Mar 22LMirage13-10Nuke2-13Dust27-13
Legacy#64-10-3
FUT#75-80-4
MOUZ vs FUT
Aug 21LDust213-16Ancient5-13Aug 14LAncient6-13Nuke16-12Mirage11-13Jun 14LAncient11-13Nuke13-10Mirage7-13+2 earlier meetings
Astralis#114-22-1
NRG vs Astralis
Jan 30WMirage16-14Overpass5-13Inferno13-7
FaZe#132-00-2
MOUZ vs FaZe
Feb 3WMirage13-5Inferno13-6NRG vs FaZe
May 12LAncient3-13Nuke11-13
B8#162-04-1
GamerLegion#202-12-1
MOUZ vs GamerLegion
Aug 19WMirage13-11Ancient19-22Nuke13-11Map lab
MOUZ57%to win the Bo3 · most likely MOUZ 2-1
If the veto goes
MOUZ 57%how the series ends43% NRG
25%2-025%
32%2-118%
MOUZ54%21-8vsNRG46%18-8
72%Win69%
62%CT67%
53%T43%
47%Pistol56%
85%Conv89%
MOUZ47%1-0vsNRG53%8-1
100%Win89%
92%CT81%
40%T67%
0%Pistol83%
–Conv86%
MOUZ64%15-8vsNRG36%11-11
65%Win50%
60%CT54%
51%T49%
59%Pistol64%
70%Conv82%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MOUZMirageNRG
62%CT side67%
53%T side43%
47%Pistol56%
85%After win89%
29%After loss4%
MOUZCacheNRG
92%CT side81%
40%T side67%
0%Pistol83%
–After win86%
50%After loss33%
MOUZInfernoNRG
60%CT side54%
51%T side49%
59%Pistol64%
70%After win82%
26%After loss19%
Pistol rounds51% · 63% · NRG win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol78% · 86% · NRG keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol29% · 12% · MOUZ fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MOUZ vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMOUNRG
AnubisMOU bann/a0g0%0-2
MOUZ on Anubis
no recent maps
NukeNRG ban59%13-947%9-10
MirageMOU pick72%21-869%18-8
CacheNRG pick100%1-089%8-1
AncientMOU ban42%8-1153%10-9
Dust2NRG ban45%15-1847%8-9
Infernodecider65%15-850%11-11
Each team's usual first ban: MOUZ Anubis · NRG Anubis.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MOUZ
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/83 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 83 maps they won, 29 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 downvs Inner CircleAncientfrom 9 downvs GamerLegionNukefrom 8 downvs SpiritMiragefrom 7 downvs AuroraDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i16/55 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 55 maps they lost, 16 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16vs FUTDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Natus VincereAncientled 5 · lost 10-13vs 9zAncientled 5 · lost 9-13vs FUTDust2led 5 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 14Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 14 went to overtime.vs FalconsInferno16-14vs FalconsDust219-17vs G2Overpass16-13vs FUTOverpass16-14vs AstralisAncient14-16
NRG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i23/70 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 70 maps they won, 23 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs MarsborneDust2from 11 downvs 9INEDust2from 8 downvs MarsborneMiragefrom 6 downvs MarsborneMiragefrom 5 downvs MarsborneOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i18/54 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 54 maps they lost, 18 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BIGMirageled 12 · lost 12-16vs VocaMirageled 7 · lost 9-13vs FUTAncientled 7 · lost 13-16vs MarsborneInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13vs MOUZDust2led 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MarsborneDust2from 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BIGMirageled 12 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs MarsborneMirage22-19vs 9INEDust225-23vs 9INEOverpass14-16vs VocaDust216-14vs MarsborneMirage19-17
MOUZ vs NRG FAQ
Who is favored to win MOUZ vs NRG?
MOUZ are favored with a 70% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for MOUZ vs NRG?
Bookmakers price MOUZ at 1.05 and NRG at 8.5 (implied 89% vs 11%).
When do MOUZ and NRG play?
MOUZ vs NRG is scheduled for 2026-09-17 10:00 UTC at StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026.