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Predictions / G2 Ares vs ex-Zero Tenacity · match preview
G2 Ares vs ex-Zero Tenacity: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Europe Series 8
G2 Ares
World #97 · 38-36
VS
2026-09-08 14:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Europe Series 8 · Best of 3
ex-Zero Tenacity
World #77 · 56-57
24%76%
23%
41.2Market · 1 books
77%The call · high confidence
ex-Zero Tenacity are favoured: our model gives them 76% against G2 Ares. Bookmakers lean ex-Zero Tenacity at 77%. Strength clearly favours ex-Zero Tenacity, form slightly favours G2 Ares, firepower clearly favours ex-Zero Tenacity, head-to-head clearly favours ex-Zero Tenacity.
Likely mapsInferno · Cache · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
G2 Arespullex-Zero Tenacity
Team strength1488
164780/20 EX-
Track record38–36
56–5753/47 EX-
Recent formWWLLL
LLWWL61/39 G2
Roster rating1.06
1.1370/30 EX-
Head-to-head0 maps
2 maps75/25 EX-
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 23% for G2 Ares (4 / 1.2) and we land at 24%, the same read. This read is 98% our own signal (167 maps of G2 Ares, 274 of ex-Zero Tenacity). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: ex-Zero Tenacity leads 1–0.
Bottom line: ex-Zero Tenacity to beat G2 Ares, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
G2 Ares
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
G2 Ares
HOTU#272-01-2
G2 Ares vs HOTU
Jul 31WMirage13-8Dust213-6ex-Zero Tenacity vs HOTU
Mar 11LDust28-13Mirage13-9Overpass9-13
Acend#482-02-3
G2 Ares vs Acend
Mar 1WAncient13-11Overpass13-4
Johnny Speeds#570-40-2
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Johnny Speeds
Jun 5LOverpass9-13Dust25-13
Phantom#590-22-0
G2 Ares vs Phantom
Jul 24LMirage10-13Ancient14-16ex-Zero Tenacity vs Phantom
Aug 30WDust213-8Nuke13-5
INOX Division#631-24-8
G2 Ares vs INOX Division
Jul 26LDust216-14Anubis12-16Inferno8-13ex-Zero Tenacity vs INOX Division
Sep 5LNuke8-13Cache13-3Dust26-13Aug 30LCache7-13Nuke5-13Aug 30WInferno13-3Cache16-13+2 earlier meetings
SAW#691-00-2
G2 Ares vs SAW
May 1WAncient13-7ex-Zero Tenacity vs SAW
May 22LAnubis8-13Inferno17-19
Bushido Wildcats#732-54-1
G2 Ares vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 6WInferno13-10Dust214-16Anubis16-12Aug 26LInferno6-13Dust211-13Feb 12LMirage6-13Anubis7-13ex-Zero Tenacity vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 30WDust214-16Inferno13-7Nuke13-5Feb 18WMirage13-6Inferno13-11EX-ex-RUBY#780-21-6
G2 Ares vs ex-RUBY
Jun 12LOverpass11-13Dust29-13ex-Zero Tenacity vs ex-RUBY
May 30LDust213-16Nuke7-13Mar 15LDust210-13Mirage13-8Overpass6-13Feb 25LAnubis16-19Mirage8-13Firepower
roster ratingsG2 Ares · avg 1.06 · top +0.1
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, G2 Ares vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapG2 EX-
NukeG2 bann/a0g52%29-27
G2 Ares on Nuke
no recent maps
AncientEX- ban50%13-13n/a0g
G2 Ares on Ancient
W
WAZABI13–51d agoL
Rune Eaters5–1311d agoW
STATE13–211d agoW
HYPERSPIRIT13–516d agoW
Permitta13–323d agoW
EAC13–111mo agoL
Butterfly4–131mo agoLButterfly4–132mo agoex-Zero Tenacity on Ancient
no recent maps
InfernoG2 pick50%17-1763%29-17
CacheEX- pick40%2-380%12-3
AnubisG2 ban40%6-946%11-13
MirageEX- ban47%17-1943%17-23
Each team's usual first ban: G2 Ares Nuke · ex-Zero Tenacity Ancient.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
ex-Zero Tenacity70%to win the seriesiMap edgesInferno: ex-Zero Tenacity 63% · Cache: ex-Zero Tenacity 76% clear · Dust2: ex-Zero Tenacity 52% toss-upWhyex-Zero Tenacity hold the edge across the maps (3 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesG2 Ares 30%: 2-1 21%, 2-0 9% · ex-Zero Tenacity 70%: 2-0 48%, 2-1 23%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
G2 Ares 30%ex-Zero Tenacity are the clearer side here: the most likely result is ex-Zero Tenacity 2-0.70% ex-Zero Tenacity
Inferno
G2 Ares38%ex-Zero Tenacity62%
17-17record29-17
50%win63%
52%CT win54%
48%T win55%
49%pistol60%
67%convert85%
Cache
G2 Ares24%ex-Zero Tenacity76%
2-3record12-3
40%win80%
51%CT win56%
43%T win61%
40%pistol57%
50%convert94%
Dust2
G2 Ares48%ex-Zero Tenacity52%
16-16record33-30
50%win52%
50%CT win52%
47%T win52%
50%pistol52%
59%convert78%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
G2 ct
G2 t
EX-ct
EX-t
G2 pistol
G2 conv
G2 eco
EX-pistol
EX-conv
EX-eco
Infernopool
52%163/311
48%177/371
54%232/430
55%282/516
49%33/68
67%22/33
31%11/35
60%55/92
85%47/55
32%12/37
Cachepool
51%29/57
43%26/60
56%67/120
61%109/179
40%4/10
50%2/4
0%0/6
57%17/30
94%16/17
15%2/13
Dust2pool
50%183/369
47%154/326
52%325/631
52%336/649
50%32/64
59%19/32
19%6/32
52%65/126
78%51/65
16%10/61
Nukeban
n/a
n/a
55%299/540
48%269/565
n/a
n/a
n/a
56%63/112
79%50/63
29%14/49
Ancientban
52%145/280
48%121/254
n/a
n/a
54%28/52
82%23/28
29%7/24
n/a
n/a
n/a
Anubisban
47%73/156
50%85/171
42%106/250
52%128/245
37%11/30
73%8/11
11%2/19
42%20/48
80%16/20
11%3/28
Mirageban
54%188/347
47%192/411
50%221/443
43%170/395
56%40/72
75%30/40
28%9/32
40%32/80
78%25/32
21%10/48
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
ex-Zero Tenacity wins more pistol rounds: 55% vs 49%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → ex-Zero Tenacity usually win the next round too (83% vs 62%). Lose the pistol → both fight back about the same (23% vs 22%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
G2 Ares
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i28/81 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 81 maps they won, 28 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 7 downvs LilmixAncientfrom 7 downvs BebopDust2from 7 downvs WWDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i24/86 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 86 maps they lost, 24 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs 9INEMirageled 8 · lost 23-25vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs PermittaCacheled 6 · lost 8-13vs PermittaAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 32Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 32 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16
ex-Zero Tenacity
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/137 (29%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 137 maps they won, 40 (29%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 29% of their wins were comebacks, not 29% of all games.vs WBTCachefrom 10 downvs STATEInfernofrom 7 downvs KOLESIEDust2from 7 downvs HEROIC AcademyMiragefrom 6 downvs LavkedDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i42/131 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 131 maps they lost, 42 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs STATEOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16vs HashirasInfernoled 6 · lost 10-13vs HAVUNukeled 6 · lost 11-13vs Subtop De FranceDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs benched godsDust2led 6 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTCachefrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs STATEOverpassled 6 · lost 13-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 22Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 22 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsInferno16-14vs los kogutosNuke14-16vs ex-RUBYAnubis16-19vs ASTRALAnubis16-14vs STATEOverpass13-16