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Predictions / K27 vs LP · match preview
K27 vs LP: CS2 match prediction · 1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier
K27
World #37 · 59-37
VS
2026-09-08 15:00 UTC
1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · Best of 3
LP
World #95 · 46-28
61%39%
74%
1.253.5Market · 1 books
26%The call
K27 are favoured: our model gives them 61% against LP. Bookmakers lean K27 at 74%. Form clearly favours K27, firepower slightly favours K27.
Likely mapsMirage · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
K27pullLP
Team strength1619
159156/44 K27
Track record59–37
46–2853/47 LP
Recent formLWWLW
LLLLW77/23 K27
Roster rating1.13
1.1169/31 K27
Bookmakers imply 74% for K27 (1.25 / 3.5); we land 13 points lower at 61%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (232 maps of K27, 173 of LP).
Bottom line: K27 to beat LP, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
K27
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
MIBR#252-21-2
Eternal Fire#702-31-2
LP vs Eternal Fire
Sep 1LInferno6-13Cache13-10Mirage7-13Firepower
roster ratingsK27 · avg 1.13 · top +0.06
LP · avg 1.11 · top +0.06
| Player | Mp | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| zmb | 174 | 1.03 | 79 | 74% | 54% | 1.17 |
| Alisson | 172 | 1.15 | 74.3 | 74.9% | 50% | 1.14 |
| divine | 161 | 1.23 | 66.1 | 75.7% | 33% | 1.09 |
| happ | 174 | 1.05 | 67.6 | 73.1% | 51% | 1.08 |
| Leomonster | 171 | 0.96 | 75.5 | 72% | 57% | 1.05 |
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, K27 vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapK27LP
InfernoK27 bann/a0g68%23-11
AnubisLP ban57%12-9n/a0g
MirageK27 pick69%29-1333%9-18
AncientLP pick59%23-1669%20-9
NukeK27 ban51%22-2163%19-11
Dust2LP ban58%28-2056%20-16
Each team's usual first ban: K27 Inferno · LP Anubis.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
LP56%to win the seriesiMap edgesMirage: K27 80% clear · Ancient: LP 60% · Cache: LP 79% clearWhyLP hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesK27 44%: 2-0 32%, 2-1 12% · LP 56%: 2-1 44%, 2-0 12%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
K27 44%It’s nearly a coin-flip. LP only lead because their Cache & Ancient is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.56% LP
Mirage
K2780%LP20%
29-13record9-18
69%win33%
60%CT win45%
49%T win49%
62%pistol44%
80%convert96%
Ancient
K2740%LP60%
23-16record20-9
59%win69%
53%CT win61%
52%T win52%
60%pistol53%
81%convert87%
Cache
K2721%LP79%
8-7record5-0
53%win100%
53%CT win55%
50%T win75%
60%pistol50%
89%convert100%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
K27ct
K27t
LPct
LPt
K27pistol
K27conv
K27eco
LPpistol
LPconv
LPeco
Miragepool
60%256/424
49%204/414
45%136/301
49%121/249
62%52/84
80%41/51
34%11/32
44%24/54
96%23/24
7%2/30
Ancientpool
53%196/373
52%219/420
61%164/270
52%168/326
60%47/78
81%38/47
26%8/31
53%31/58
87%27/31
37%10/27
Cachepool
53%79/149
50%83/166
55%26/47
75%39/52
60%18/30
89%16/18
33%4/12
50%5/10
100%5/5
60%3/5
Infernoban
n/a
n/a
58%169/293
52%194/376
n/a
n/a
n/a
46%31/68
71%22/31
22%8/37
Anubisban
53%101/189
44%100/225
n/a
n/a
52%22/42
100%21/21
10%2/20
n/a
n/a
n/a
Nukeban
57%258/456
43%189/440
57%158/276
48%143/295
53%46/86
78%36/46
20%8/40
50%30/60
83%25/30
23%7/30
Dust2ban
53%258/484
54%276/513
55%218/396
52%179/342
55%53/96
85%44/52
19%8/43
53%38/72
79%30/38
21%7/34
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
K27 wins more pistol rounds: 61% vs 49%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → LP usually win the next round too (92% vs 82%). Lose the pistol → K27 fight back to win the next round more often (31% vs 24%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
K27
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i45/130 (35%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 130 maps they won, 45 (35%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 35% of their wins were comebacks, not 35% of all games.vs ARCREDDust2from 9 downvs WildcardDust2from 7 downvs WHITEBIRDNukefrom 6 downvs Inner CircleAnubisfrom 6 downvs AcendAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i36/100 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 100 maps they lost, 36 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs ex-RUBYDust2led 8 · lost 10-13vs WWMirageled 8 · lost 11-13vs Eternal FireAncientled 8 · lost 10-13vs 1winOverpassled 7 · lost 11-13vs INFINITENukeled 7 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ARCREDDust2from 9 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs ex-RUBYDust2led 8 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi29% · 25Close maps (≤3) · OT29% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 25 went to overtime.vs 9INEAncient16-12vs WATERMELONAncient22-20vs ARCREDDust216-13vs NemigaAnubis16-12vs MOUZ NXTAnubis31-29
LP
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i32/103 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 103 maps they won, 32 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs GalorysNukefrom 9 downvs Fake do BiruNukefrom 8 downvs FluxoInfernofrom 7 downvs Bounty HuntersCachefrom 7 downvs FOLHA AMARELAOverpassfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i23/70 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 70 maps they lost, 23 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BESTIAAncientled 10 · lost 5-13vs Fake do BiruMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs ShindeNInfernoled 6 · lost 7-13vs Fake do BiruDust2led 5 · lost 12-16vs GalorysOverpassled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GalorysNukefrom 9 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BESTIAAncientled 10 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi25% · 10Close maps (≤3) · OT25% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 10 went to overtime.vs GalorysOverpass19-15vs RED CanidsAncient12-16vs ODDIKAncient16-13vs Fake do BiruDust212-16vs YawaraAncient16-14