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Predictions / G2 Ares vs Honvéd · match preview
G2 Ares vs Honvéd: CS2 match prediction · NODWIN Clutch Series 12
G2 Ares
World #103 · 41-42
VS
2026-09-20 08:00 UTC
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
Honvéd
World #129 · 29-32
NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · Best of 3
62%38%
The call
G2 Ares are favoured: our model gives them 62% against Honvéd. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours G2 Ares, form slightly favours G2 Ares, firepower clearly favours G2 Ares, head-to-head slightly favours Honvéd.
Likely mapsInferno · Mirage · Dust2
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
G2 ArespullHonvéd
Team strength1497
145160/40 G2
Track record41–42
29–3252/48 G2
Recent formLLWLL
LLLLW63/37 G2
Roster rating1.11
0.9982/18 G2
Head-to-head1 maps
2 maps60/40 HON
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 97% our own signal (190 maps of G2 Ares, 145 of Honvéd). Head-to-head they've met 1 time: Honvéd leads 1–0.
Bottom line: G2 Ares to beat Honvéd, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsG2 Ares · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Honvéd · avg 0.99 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
G2 Ares
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
INOX Division#591-20-2
G2 Ares vs INOX Division
Jul 26LDust216-14Anubis12-16Inferno8-13Honvéd vs INOX Division
Aug 22LAncient4-13Inferno9-13
ex-RUSTEC#670-41-2
Honvéd vs ex-RUSTEC
Aug 2LDust213-10Anubis2-13Mirage9-13
Bushido Wildcats#762-53-7
G2 Ares vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 6WInferno13-10Dust214-16Anubis16-12Aug 26LInferno6-13Dust211-13Feb 12LMirage6-13Anubis7-13Honvéd vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 19LMirage6-13Inferno13-10Dust24-13Aug 24LDust26-13Cache10-13Aug 21LDust25-13Cache4-13+1 earlier meeting
BET-M#770-20-2
G2 Ares vs BET-M
Mar 4LAnubis9-13Ancient10-13Honvéd vs BET-M
Jul 28LDust26-13Inferno14-16
ex-Zero Tenacity#821-40-2
Honvéd vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Aug 26LMirage7-13Cache13-16LAVLavked#1052-20-2
Honvéd vs Lavked
Sep 16LAnubis9-13Inferno9-13
Misa#1105-32-1
Azuolas#1184-02-1
Honvéd vs Azuolas
Sep 13WMirage4-13Ancient13-11Inferno13-6Map lab
G2 Ares58%to win the Bo3 · most likely G2 Ares 2-0
If the veto goes
G2 Ares 58%how the series ends42% Honvéd
35%2-016%
23%2-126%
G2 Ares66%22-19vsHonvéd34%6-11
54%Win35%
54%CT43%
49%T52%
50%Pistol44%
68%Conv87%
G2 Ares53%21-21vsHonvéd47%18-20
50%Win47%
55%CT55%
46%T40%
54%Pistol57%
78%Conv79%
G2 Ares47%16-18vsHonvéd53%21-21
47%Win50%
50%CT51%
46%T46%
51%Pistol52%
60%Conv89%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
G2 AresInfernoHonvéd
54%CT side43%
49%T side52%
50%Pistol44%
68%After win87%
34%After loss21%
G2 AresMirageHonvéd
55%CT side55%
46%T side40%
54%Pistol57%
78%After win79%
23%After loss12%
G2 AresDust2Honvéd
50%CT side51%
46%T side46%
51%Pistol52%
60%After win89%
18%After loss13%
Pistol rounds52% · 53% · level, no edge
After a won pistol69% · 84% · Honvéd keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol26% · 14% · G2 Ares fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, G2 Ares vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapG2 HON
NukeG2 bann/a0g60%3-2
G2 Ares on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisHON ban44%7-950%4-4
InfernoG2 pick54%22-1935%6-11
MirageHON pick50%21-2147%18-20
CacheG2 ban22%2-736%4-7
AncientHON ban48%14-1553%9-8
Each team's usual first ban: G2 Ares Nuke · Honvéd Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
G2 Ares
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i31/92 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 92 maps they won, 31 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs MisaInfernofrom 9 downvs AzuolasInfernofrom 8 downvs DONSTUAnubisfrom 7 downvs LilmixAncientfrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i32/98 (33%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 98 maps they lost, 32 (33%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs 9INEMirageled 8 · lost 23-25vs MisaDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs Bushido WildcatsDust2led 6 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi36% · 34Close maps (≤3) · OT36% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 34 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16
Honvéd
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i21/65 (32%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 65 maps they won, 21 (32%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 32% of their wins were comebacks, not 32% of all games.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 downvs The Last ResortInfernofrom 8 downvs brazylijski luzMiragefrom 6 downvs PrivateerNukefrom 6 downvs Noir VerseDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/76 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 76 maps they lost, 27 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13vs BebopCacheled 7 · lost 11-13vs ex-MANADust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs MisaMirageled 6 · lost 8-13vs TeletubisieDust2led 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs RUSTECDust2from 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs EntropyMirageled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi37% · 18Close maps (≤3) · OT37% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 18 went to overtime.vs PUREDust216-14vs brazylijski luzAncient19-17vs TNCAncient15-19vs ex-MANAMirage13-16vs GenOneDust213-16