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Predictions / Leo vs UNiTY · match preview
Leo vs UNiTY: CS2 match prediction · Exort Fiesta Series 2
Exort Fiesta Series 2 · Best of 3
53%47%
42%
2.181.59Market · 2 books
58%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 53–47. Bookmakers lean UNiTY at 58%. Strength slightly favours UNiTY, firepower clearly favours UNiTY, head-to-head clearly favours Leo.
Likely mapsDust2 · Ancient · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LeopullUNiTY
Team strength1529
157259/41 UNI
Track record47–47
46–4852/48 UNI
Recent formWWLWL
WWWLW54/46 UNI
Roster rating1.09
1.1183/17 UNI
Head-to-head4 maps
0 maps83/17 LEO
Bookmakers imply 42% for Leo (2.18 / 1.59); we land 11 points higher at 53%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (235 maps of Leo, 213 of UNiTY). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: Leo leads 2–0.
Bottom line: Leo to beat UNiTY, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLeo · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.09iStar gap: the best player rates 0.09 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
UNiTY · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Leo
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
1win#380-21-2
Leo vs 1win
Jan 31LInferno9-13Ancient8-13UNiTY vs 1win
Jan 29LInferno13-4Ancient11-13Overpass4-13
Nuclear TigeRES#472-00-4
Leo vs Nuclear TigeRES
Feb 18WDust219-16Ancient13-5
GenOne#562-51-6
ex-RUSTEC#671-21-2
Leo vs ex-RUSTEC
Aug 18LNuke13-6Dust27-13Anubis2-13UNiTY vs ex-RUSTEC
Jul 28LDust26-13Inferno13-8Mirage8-13
Metizport#680-21-4
Leo vs Metizport
Mar 3LDust210-13Nuke11-13
Bushido Wildcats#767-42-1
Leo vs Bushido Wildcats
Sep 15WDust214-16Nuke13-9Cache13-11Aug 20WNuke13-9Mirage3-13Dust213-2Aug 4LNuke6-13Dust213-7Anubis1-13+1 earlier meeting
UNiTY vs Bushido Wildcats
Aug 29WInferno13-3Dust26-13Mirage13-10
BET-M#770-20-2
Leo vs BET-M
Sep 15Lseries0-2UNiTY vs BET-M
Mar 2LAncient11-13Mirage8-13
ASTRAL#795-50-4
Leo vs ASTRAL
Jun 29LMirage10-13Dust25-13May 31LAncient13-3Dust26-13Anubis11-13Mar 23WDust213-8Anubis5-13Ancient13-9+1 earlier meeting
Map lab
Leo55%to win the Bo3 · most likely Leo 2-0
If the veto goes
Leo 55%how the series ends45% UNiTY
30%2-019%
25%2-126%
Leo64%36-28vsUNiTY36%14-20
56%Win41%
51%CT52%
53%T46%
51%Pistol49%
80%Conv91%
Leo46%18-21vsUNiTY54%27-27
46%Win50%
50%CT54%
47%T50%
32%Pistol56%
88%Conv84%
Leo49%3-4vsUNiTY51%4-5
43%Win44%
48%CT49%
52%T49%
64%Pistol17%
100%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LeoDust2UNiTY
51%CT side52%
53%T side46%
51%Pistol49%
80%After win91%
17%After loss11%
LeoAncientUNiTY
50%CT side54%
47%T side50%
32%Pistol56%
88%After win84%
8%After loss13%
LeoCacheUNiTY
48%CT side49%
52%T side49%
64%Pistol17%
100%After win100%
20%After loss13%
Pistol rounds45% · 50% · UNiTY win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 87% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol13% · 12% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Leo vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
UNiTY habitually bans Nuke, Leo's strongest maps (Nuke, Overpass all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Nuke 80/95), not an opponent read, so expect Leo to fight the veto for Dust2.
MapLEOUNI
MirageLEO ban46%6-755%23-19
NukeUNI ban63%25-150%0-4
Dust2LEO pick56%36-2841%14-20
AncientUNI pick46%18-2150%27-27
InfernoLEO ban46%6-761%22-14
AnubisUNI ban32%12-2655%12-10
Cachedecider43%3-444%4-5
Each team's usual first ban: Leo Mirage · UNiTY Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Leo
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i29/109 (27%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 109 maps they won, 29 (27%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 27% of their wins were comebacks, not 27% of all games.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 downvs Lazer CatsInfernofrom 6 downvs QWENTRYDust2from 6 downvs ASTRALDust2from 5 downvs AimhausDust2from 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i33/110 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 110 maps they lost, 33 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Lazer CatsInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13vs WWAnubisled 6 · lost 14-16vs UrsaAnubisled 6 · lost 10-13vs PhantomAnubisled 6 · lost 11-13vs MisaDust2led 6 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs PhantomNukefrom 7 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Lazer CatsInfernoled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi28% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT28% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs Lazer CatsAnubis14-16vs WWNuke17-19vs WWAnubis14-16vs BIGAnubis14-16vs Bushido WildcatsNuke19-16
UNiTY
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i31/105 (30%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 105 maps they won, 31 (30%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 30% of their wins were comebacks, not 30% of all games.vs LavkedMiragefrom 8 downvs ENCE AcademyMiragefrom 6 downvs AllianceAncientfrom 6 downvs PsychoFaceDust2from 6 downvs PermittaAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i39/106 (37%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 106 maps they lost, 39 (37%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs 1winAncientled 9 · lost 11-13vs KOLESIEAncientled 7 · lost 8-13vs LavkedMirageled 7 · lost 10-13vs Fingers CrossedMirageled 6 · lost 10-13vs AllianceOverpassled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedMiragefrom 8 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs 1winAncientled 9 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.2 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi39% · 30Close maps (≤3) · OT39% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 30 went to overtime.vs illwillInferno19-16vs illwillMirage19-17vs BetclicMirage16-14vs G2 AresOverpass17-19vs KOLESIEAncient19-17