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Predictions / NRG vs Aurora · match preview
NRG vs Aurora: CS2 match prediction · StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026
NRG
World #50 · 32-22
VS
2026-09-18 15:00 UTC
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
Aurora
World #9 · 36-25
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
52%48%
28%
3.351.3Market · 23 books
72%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 52–48. Bookmakers lean Aurora at 72%. Firepower slightly favours NRG.
Likely mapsCache · Dust2 · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
NRGpullAurora
Team strength1654
168056/44 AUR
Track record32–22
36–2551/49 AUR
Recent formWLWWW
WLWWL52/48 NRG
Roster rating1.14
1.1564/36 NRG
Bookmakers imply 28% for NRG (3.35 / 1.3); we land 24 points higher at 52%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (129 maps of NRG, 142 of Aurora).
Bottom line: NRG to beat Aurora, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsNRG · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Aurora · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
NRG
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Falcons#21-42-1
Aurora vs Falcons
Feb 1WAnubis13-7Mirage10-13Inferno13-8
MOUZ#33-52-6
FURIA#41-23-6
NRG vs FURIA
Mar 22LMirage13-10Nuke2-13Dust27-13Aurora vs FURIA
Aug 19LAncient11-13Nuke16-14Mirage9-13Jun 20LDust29-13Nuke4-13Mar 20WDust216-14Inferno13-6+1 earlier meeting
Legacy#60-34-2
FUT#70-41-2
Astralis#112-14-1
NRG vs Astralis
Jan 30WMirage16-14Overpass5-13Inferno13-7
FaZe#130-22-1
NRG vs FaZe
May 12LAncient3-13Nuke11-13Aurora vs FaZe
Mar 18WNuke11-13Inferno13-8Dust213-10
B8#164-14-0
Map lab
Aurora53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Aurora 2-1
If the veto goes
NRG 47%how the series ends53% Aurora
28%2-017%
19%2-136%
NRG72%9-1vsAurora28%2-2
90%Win50%
77%CT54%
65%T48%
80%Pistol100%
87%Conv88%
NRG39%9-9vsAurora61%19-12
50%Win61%
51%CT56%
45%T51%
42%Pistol58%
73%Conv89%
NRG35%11-12vsAurora65%13-7
48%Win65%
53%CT63%
48%T47%
63%Pistol55%
79%Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
NRGCacheAurora
77%CT side54%
65%T side48%
80%Pistol100%
87%After win88%
25%After loss–
NRGDust2Aurora
51%CT side56%
45%T side51%
42%Pistol58%
73%After win89%
14%After loss19%
NRGInfernoAurora
53%CT side63%
48%T side47%
63%Pistol55%
79%After win86%
18%After loss44%
Pistol rounds59% · 60% · level, no edge
After a won pistol80% · 88% · Aurora keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol17% · 30% · Aurora fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, NRG vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNRGAUR
AnubisNRG ban0%0-265%13-7
AncientAUR ban53%10-90%0-2
CacheNRG pick90%9-150%2-2
Dust2AUR pick50%9-961%19-12
NukeNRG ban47%9-1052%12-11
MirageAUR ban69%18-858%15-11
Infernodecider48%11-1265%13-7
Each team's usual first ban: NRG Anubis · Aurora Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
NRG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i24/72 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 72 maps they won, 24 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs MarsborneDust2from 11 downvs 9INEDust2from 8 downvs MarsborneMiragefrom 6 downvs MarsborneMiragefrom 5 downvs MarsborneOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/55 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 55 maps they lost, 19 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BIGMirageled 12 · lost 12-16vs MOUZInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13vs VocaMirageled 7 · lost 9-13vs FUTAncientled 7 · lost 13-16vs MarsborneInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MarsborneDust2from 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BIGMirageled 12 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs MarsborneMirage22-19vs 9INEDust225-23vs 9INEOverpass14-16vs VocaDust216-14vs MarsborneMirage19-17
Aurora
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/83 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 83 maps they won, 18 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs AstralisDust2from 8 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 6 downvs FURIADust2from 6 downvs DENDELEMiragefrom 6 downvs B8Miragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/59 (46%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 27 (46%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13vs MOUZDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs FURIAMirageled 6 · lost 9-13vs Natus VincereNukeled 5 · lost 10-13vs M80Anubisled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AstralisDust2from 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs GamerLegionInferno13-16vs VitalityAncient22-25vs FUTAnubis16-13vs Natus VincereInferno12-16vs B8Mirage16-13