Matches / Upcoming / NRG vs Aurora
NRG vs Aurora: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026
NRG
World #50 · 32-22
VS
2026-09-18 15:00 UTC
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
Aurora
World #9 · 36-25
StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · Best of 3 · ★★
52%48%
28%
3.351.3Market · 23 books
72%The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 52–48. Bookmakers lean Aurora at 72%. Firepower slightly favours NRG.
Likely mapsCache · Dust2 · Inferno
Firepower
roster ratingsNRG · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Aurora · avg 1.15 · star gap +0.06iStar gap: the best player rates 0.06 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
NRG
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Falcons#21-42-1
Aurora vs Falcons
Feb 1WAnubis13-7Mirage10-13Inferno13-8
MOUZ#33-52-6
FURIA#41-23-6
NRG vs FURIA
Mar 22LMirage13-10Nuke2-13Dust27-13Aurora vs FURIA
Aug 19LAncient11-13Nuke16-14Mirage9-13Jun 20LDust29-13Nuke4-13Mar 20WDust216-14Inferno13-6+1 earlier meeting
Legacy#60-34-2
FUT#70-41-2
Astralis#112-14-1
NRG vs Astralis
Jan 30WMirage16-14Overpass5-13Inferno13-7
FaZe#130-22-1
NRG vs FaZe
May 12LAncient3-13Nuke11-13Aurora vs FaZe
Mar 18WNuke11-13Inferno13-8Dust213-10
B8#164-14-0
Map lab
Aurora53%to win the Bo3 · most likely Aurora 2-1
If the veto goes
NRG 47%how the series ends53% Aurora
28%2-017%
19%2-136%
NRG72%9-1vsAurora28%2-2
90%Win50%
77%CT54%
65%T48%
80%Pistol100%
87%Conv88%
NRG39%9-9vsAurora61%19-12
50%Win61%
51%CT56%
45%T51%
42%Pistol58%
73%Conv89%
NRG35%11-12vsAurora65%13-7
48%Win65%
53%CT63%
48%T47%
63%Pistol55%
79%Conv86%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
NRGCacheAurora
77%CT side54%
65%T side48%
80%Pistol100%
87%After win88%
25%After loss–
NRGDust2Aurora
51%CT side56%
45%T side51%
42%Pistol58%
73%After win89%
14%After loss19%
NRGInfernoAurora
53%CT side63%
48%T side47%
63%Pistol55%
79%After win86%
18%After loss44%
Pistol rounds59% · 60% · level, no edge
After a won pistol80% · 88% · Aurora keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol17% · 30% · Aurora fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, NRG vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapNRGAUR
AnubisNRG ban0%0-265%13-7
AncientAUR ban53%10-90%0-2
CacheNRG pick90%9-150%2-2
Dust2AUR pick50%9-961%19-12
NukeNRG ban47%9-1052%12-11
MirageAUR ban69%18-858%15-11
Infernodecider48%11-1265%13-7
Each team's usual first ban: NRG Anubis · Aurora Ancient.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
NRG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i24/72 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 72 maps they won, 24 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs MarsborneDust2from 11 downvs 9INEDust2from 8 downvs MarsborneMiragefrom 6 downvs MarsborneMiragefrom 5 downvs MarsborneOverpassfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/55 (35%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 55 maps they lost, 19 (35%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BIGMirageled 12 · lost 12-16vs MOUZInfernoled 8 · lost 5-13vs VocaMirageled 7 · lost 9-13vs FUTAncientled 7 · lost 13-16vs MarsborneInfernoled 5 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 11 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MarsborneDust2from 11 down · won 13-2
Biggest lead blowni12 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BIGMirageled 12 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs MarsborneMirage22-19vs 9INEDust225-23vs 9INEOverpass14-16vs VocaDust216-14vs MarsborneMirage19-17
Aurora
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i18/83 (22%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 83 maps they won, 18 (22%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 22% of their wins were comebacks, not 22% of all games.vs AstralisDust2from 8 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 6 downvs FURIADust2from 6 downvs DENDELEMiragefrom 6 downvs B8Miragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i27/59 (46%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 59 maps they lost, 27 (46%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13vs MOUZDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs FURIAMirageled 6 · lost 9-13vs Natus VincereNukeled 5 · lost 10-13vs M80Anubisled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs AstralisDust2from 8 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs LegacyOverpassled 6 · lost 8-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs GamerLegionInferno13-16vs VitalityAncient22-25vs FUTAnubis16-13vs Natus VincereInferno12-16vs B8Mirage16-13
NRG vs Aurora FAQ
Who is favored to win NRG vs Aurora?
NRG are favored with a 52% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for NRG vs Aurora?
Bookmakers price NRG at 3.35 and Aurora at 1.3 (implied 28% vs 72%).
When do NRG and Aurora play?
NRG vs Aurora is scheduled for 2026-09-18 15:00 UTC at StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026.