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Predictions / RUSH vs QUINTESSÊNCIA · match preview
RUSH vs QUINTESSÊNCIA: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3
RUSH
World #– · 1-3
VS
2026-09-20 21:00 UTC
CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3 · Best of 3
QUINTESSÊNCIA
World #159 · 6-5
CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 3 · Best of 3
42%58%
43%
2.131.59Market · 4 books
57%The call
QUINTESSÊNCIA are favoured: our model gives them 58% against RUSH. Bookmakers lean QUINTESSÊNCIA at 57%. Strength slightly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA, record clearly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA, form slightly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA, firepower clearly favours QUINTESSÊNCIA.
Likely mapsMirage · Cache · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
RUSHpullQUINTESSÊNCIA
Team strength1484
152458/42 QUI
Track record1–3
6–570/30 QUI
Recent formLWLL
WWLLW67/33 QUI
Roster rating1.11
1.1293/7 QUI
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 43% for RUSH (2.13 / 1.59) and we land at 42%, the same read. This read is 70% our own signal (9 maps of RUSH, 24 of QUINTESSÊNCIA).
Bottom line: QUINTESSÊNCIA to beat RUSH, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsRUSH · avg 1.11 · star gap +0.27iStar gap: the best player rates 0.27 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
QUINTESSÊNCIA · avg 1.12 · star gap +0.42iStar gap: the best player rates 0.42 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fl4sh★ | 1.35 | 94.8 | 74% | 46% | 1.54 |
| edv | 1.24 | 74.6 | 72.9% | 32% | 1.12 |
| prozinszsz | 0.89 | 72.1 | 71.1% | 48% | 1.03 |
| cz1k4 | 0.95 | 64.2 | 70.1% | 55% | 1.02 |
| n0page | 0.73 | 64.7 | 70.2% | 46% | 0.9 |
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponentsSEMSementes do Mal2-02-0
RUSH vs Sementes do Mal
Sep 18WCache13-7Mirage13-8QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Sementes do Mal
Sep 19WCache13-5Mirage13-3Map lab
QUINTESSÊNCIA54%to win the Bo3 · most likely QUINTESSÊNCIA 2-1
If the veto goes
RUSH 46%how the series ends54% QUINTESSÊNCIA
25%2-025%
21%2-129%
RUSH52%1-1vsQUINTESSÊNCIA48%2-3
50%Win40%
69%CT34%
33%T51%
100%Pistol40%
50%Conv75%
RUSH48%1-0vsQUINTESSÊNCIA52%5-1
100%Win83%
67%CT48%
63%T59%
50%Pistol58%
100%Conv71%
RUSH42%0-2vsQUINTESSÊNCIA58%2-2
0%Win50%
60%CT57%
14%T44%
25%Pistol25%
100%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
RUSHMirageQUINTESSÊNCIA
69%CT side34%
33%T side51%
100%Pistol40%
50%After win75%
–After loss17%
RUSHCacheQUINTESSÊNCIA
67%CT side48%
63%T side59%
50%Pistol58%
100%After win71%
0%After loss0%
RUSHAncientQUINTESSÊNCIA
60%CT side57%
14%T side44%
25%Pistol25%
100%After win100%
0%After loss0%
Pistol rounds60% · 43% · RUSH win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol67% · 77% · QUINTESSÊNCIA keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol0% · 6% · QUINTESSÊNCIA fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, RUSH vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapRUSQUI
InfernoRUS ban0%0-1100%2-0
RUSH on Inferno
Lyour end9–131d agoNukeQUI ban0%0-2n/a0g
QUINTESSÊNCIA on Nuke
no recent maps
MirageRUS pick50%1-140%2-3
CacheQUI pick100%1-083%5-1
AnubisRUS bann/a0g0%0-1
RUSH on Anubis
no recent maps
QUINTESSÊNCIA on Anubis
L
paiN Academy4–131mo agoDust2QUI ban100%1-050%3-3
Ancientdecider0%0-250%2-2
QUINTESSÊNCIA on Ancient
WMEIA NOITE13–8todayL
ALKA5–131mo agoW
Crashers13–75mo agoL
Turma do Pagode11–135mo agoEach team's usual first ban: RUSH Anubis · QUINTESSÊNCIA Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
RUSH
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/3 (67%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 3 maps they won, 2 (67%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 67% of their wins were comebacks, not 67% of all games.vs your endDust2from 4 downvs Sementes do MalMiragefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i3/6 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 6 maps they lost, 3 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs your endInfernoled 9 · lost 9-13vs your endAncientled 5 · lost 8-13vs ShindeNNukeled 3 · lost 8-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs your endDust2from 4 down · won 13-7
Biggest lead blowni9 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs your endInfernoled 9 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi0% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT0% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample
QUINTESSÊNCIA
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i6/14 (43%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 14 maps they won, 6 (43%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 43% of their wins were comebacks, not 43% of all games.vs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 8 downvs PugdesonestoInfernofrom 6 downvs METANOIA WolvesMiragefrom 4 downvs MEIA NOITECachefrom 4 downvs PugdesonestoCachefrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/10 (10%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 10 maps they lost, 1 (10%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs UNO MILLEDust2led 4 · lost 17-19
Biggest comebackifrom 8 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MEIA NOITEAncientfrom 8 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni4 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs UNO MILLEDust2led 4 · lost 17-19
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi42% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT42% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs UNO MILLEDust217-19vs MEIA NOITECache16-13