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Predictions / Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar · match preview
Marsborne vs Iowa Stormboar: CS2 match prediction · ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2
Marsborne
World #94 · 48-30
VS
2026-09-24 01:00 UTC
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
Iowa Stormboar
World #177 · 13-11
ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · Best of 3
78%22%
85%
1.086.05Market · 11 books
15%The call · high confidence
Marsborne are favoured: our model gives them 78% against Iowa Stormboar. Bookmakers lean Marsborne at 85%. Strength clearly favours Marsborne, record slightly favours Marsborne, form slightly favours Marsborne, firepower clearly favours Marsborne, head-to-head slightly favours Marsborne.
Likely mapsAnubis · Mirage · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MarsbornepullIowa Stormboar
Team strength1641
153472/28 MAR
Track record48–30
13–1162/38 MAR
Recent formWWWWL
WLWLW59/41 MAR
Roster rating1.14
1.0985/15 MAR
Head-to-head6 maps
2 maps70/30 MAR
Bookmakers imply 85% for Marsborne (1.08 / 6.05); we land 7 points lower at 78%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 93% our own signal (180 maps of Marsborne, 54 of Iowa Stormboar). Head-to-head they've met 4 times: Marsborne leads 3–1.
Bottom line: Marsborne to beat Iowa Stormboar, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMarsborne · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Iowa Stormboar · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.34iStar gap: the best player rates 0.34 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Marsborne
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2d ago
Marsborne2 : 0
Iowa Stormboar◆ same lineup11d ago Marsborne0 : 2 Iowa Stormboar!27d ago Marsborne2 : 0 Iowa Stormboar!3mo ago Marsborne2 : 0 Iowa Stormboar!
Marsborne2 : 0 Iowa Stormboar◆ same lineup11d ago Marsborne0 : 2 Iowa Stormboar!⚠ Different lineup
Iowa Stormboar
outjsfeltner
inScorchyy
Marsborne2 : 0 Iowa Stormboar!⚠ Different lineup
Iowa Stormboar
outfalse
inH0NeST
Marsborne2 : 0 Iowa Stormboar!⚠ Different lineup
Marsborne
outmarekiew
innicx
Iowa Stormboar
outjsfeltner
inValter0k
NRG#243-60-2
Marsborne vs NRG
Jul 30LAncient13-6Dust22-13Inferno8-13Jan 11LInferno13-5Mirage17-19Overpass9-13Jan 3LInferno13-11Mirage19-22Train10-13Iowa Stormboar vs NRG
Jul 28LNuke13-16Inferno6-13
M80#252-10-2
Marsborne vs M80
Apr 26WMirage5-13Ancient13-9Anubis13-8Iowa Stormboar vs M80
May 27LAncient5-13Mirage11-13
SportsBetExpert#714-40-4
Marsborne vs SportsBetExpert
Aug 2LNuke6-13Anubis4-13May 31WInferno13-9Mirage13-8May 24LInferno10-13Anubis2-13+1 earlier meeting
LAG#986-01-4
Overtake Sector#1256-05-2
Marsborne vs Overtake Sector
Sep 1WDust213-8Inferno13-9Jun 13WMirage13-7Inferno13-7May 25WMirage22-20Inferno13-11Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake Sector
Sep 10WDust213-10Mirage1-13Ancient16-14Sep 4WMirage13-4Jun 13WDust24-13Mirage13-7Ancient13-9FARFarmVille#2031-02-1
Marsborne vs FarmVille
Sep 4Wseries13-6Iowa Stormboar vs FarmVille
Sep 18WCache4-13Mirage13-5Dust213-4
Festina Lente2-12-1
Marsborne vs Festina Lente
Jun 14WOverpass10-13Anubis13-9Ancient13-9Iowa Stormboar vs Festina Lente
Jun 14WMirage4-13Nuke13-8Ancient13-3Map lab
Marsborne62%to win the Bo3 · most likely Marsborne 2-0
If the veto goes
Marsborne 62%how the series ends38% Iowa Stormboar
49%2-09%
13%2-129%
Marsborne75%17-4vsIowa Stormboar25%1-3
81%Win25%
58%CT31%
61%T48%
40%Pistol63%
100%Conv100%
Marsborne65%20-9vsIowa Stormboar35%8-7
69%Win53%
63%CT61%
47%T43%
53%Pistol43%
81%Conv85%
Marsborne31%21-15vsIowa Stormboar69%5-1
58%Win83%
59%CT55%
48%T52%
61%Pistol50%
80%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MarsborneAnubisIowa Stormboar
58%CT side31%
61%T side48%
40%Pistol63%
100%After win100%
40%After loss0%
MarsborneMirageIowa Stormboar
63%CT side61%
47%T side43%
53%Pistol43%
81%After win85%
30%After loss6%
MarsborneAncientIowa Stormboar
59%CT side55%
48%T side52%
61%Pistol50%
80%After win100%
7%After loss0%
Pistol rounds53% · 48% · Marsborne win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol84% · 92% · Iowa Stormboar keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol25% · 4% · Marsborne fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Marsborne vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Iowa Stormboar habitually bans Inferno, Marsborne's strongest maps (Inferno, Mirage, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 14/24), not an opponent read, so expect Marsborne to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapMARIOW
Dust2MAR ban57%8-667%6-3
InfernoIOW ban69%29-1317%1-5
AnubisMAR pick81%17-425%1-3
Marsborne on Anubis
WIowa Stormboar13–52d agoWKodex13–67d agoW
Liquid13–1012d agoW
Olympus13–912d agoLSportsBetExpert4–132mo agoWIowa Stormboar13–93mo agoWFestina Lente13–93mo agoW
Reign Above13–104mo agoIowa Stormboar on Anubis
LMarsborne5–132d agoLLAG2–1310d agoLMarsborne9–133mo agoW
DETONATE13–93mo agoMirageIOW pick69%20-953%8-7
CacheMAR ban0%0-150%2-2
Marsborne on Cache
L
regain5–133mo agoIowa Stormboar on Cache
W
Wanted Goons16–13todayLFarmVille4–135d agoLSportsBetExpert7–1317d agoW
EMPIRE13–425d agoNukeIOW ban47%8-940%4-6
Ancientdecider58%21-1583%5-1
Each team's usual first ban: Marsborne Dust2 · Iowa Stormboar Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Marsborne
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i40/110 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 110 maps they won, 40 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 downvs Chicken CoopAncientfrom 10 downvs 9zAncientfrom 6 downvs LAGMiragefrom 6 downvs Chicken CoopDust2from 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i26/69 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 69 maps they lost, 26 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13vs SportsBetExpertAnubisled 9 · lost 4-13vs NRGMirageled 6 · lost 17-19vs ZomblersAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs GalorysOverpassled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 17Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 17 went to overtime.vs NRGMirage19-22vs NRGMirage17-19vs BESTIAAncient16-19vs VocaOverpass14-16vs Fake do BiruInferno19-17
Iowa Stormboar
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i9/27 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 27 maps they won, 9 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs Beyond LimitsDust2from 7 downvs Beyond LimitsMiragefrom 5 downvs ShimmerDust2from 4 downvs VillainousAncientfrom 4 downvs Overtake SectorAncientfrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i5/27 (19%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 27 maps they lost, 5 (19%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs M80Mirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs DETONATEMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs MarsborneAnubisled 5 · lost 9-13vs NRGNukeled 3 · lost 13-16vs SportsBetExpertMirageled 3 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Beyond LimitsDust2from 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs M80Mirageled 5 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 7Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 7 went to overtime.vs DETONATEMirage14-16vs NRGNuke13-16vs VillainousAncient16-13vs Beyond LimitsDust216-14vs Overtake SectorAncient16-14