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Predictions / LP vs RBLS · match preview
LP vs RBLS: CS2 match prediction · LeonBet Masters Season 1
LeonBet Masters Season 1 · Best of 3
53%47%
The call
Too close to call. Our model has it 53–47. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours LP, firepower clearly favours RBLS.
Likely mapsInferno · Nuke · Ancient
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
LPpullRBLS
Team strength1564
151860/40 LP
Track record49–322–250/50
Recent formLWWLW
LWLW56/44 LP
Roster rating1.1
1.1689/11 RBL
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 72% our own signal (191 maps of LP, 10 of RBLS).
Bottom line: LP to beat RBLS, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsLP · avg 1.1 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| zmb★ | 1.03 | 79.4 | 73.9% | 55% | 1.17 |
| Alisson | 1.14 | 74.5 | 74.8% | 49% | 1.13 |
| divine | 1.21 | 65.6 | 75.6% | 33% | 1.08 |
| happ | 1.05 | 67.6 | 73.2% | 51% | 1.08 |
| Leomonster | 0.97 | 75.6 | 72.2% | 57% | 1.05 |
RBLS · avg 1.16 · star gap +0.29iStar gap: the best player rates 0.29 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
LP
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Eternal Fire#481-21-2
LP vs Eternal Fire
Sep 1LInferno6-13Cache13-10Mirage7-13RBLS vs Eternal Fire
Sep 17LAncient13-8Anubis9-13Dust24-13
WBT#632-11-2
RBLS vs WBT
Sep 19LNuke13-10Dust210-13Anubis13-16Map lab
RBLS50%to win the Bo3 · most likely RBLS 2-0
If the veto goes
LP 50%how the series ends50% RBLS
25%2-025%
25%2-125%
LP50%24-12thinRBLS50%0-0
67%Win–
58%CT–
51%T–
44%Pistol–
72%Conv–
LP49%22-12vsRBLS51%1-0
65%Win100%
60%CT82%
48%T33%
53%Pistol50%
86%Conv0%
LP50%22-11vsRBLS50%1-0
67%Win100%
59%CT50%
51%T78%
50%Pistol0%
88%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
LPInfernoRBLS
58%CT side–
51%T side–
44%Pistol–
72%After win–
23%After loss–
LPNukeRBLS
60%CT side82%
48%T side33%
53%Pistol50%
86%After win0%
22%After loss100%
LPAncientRBLS
59%CT side50%
51%T side78%
50%Pistol0%
88%After win–
33%After loss50%
Pistol rounds49% · 25% · LP win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol82% · 0% · LP keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol26% · 67% · RBLS fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, LP vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
RBLS habitually bans Cache, LP's strongest maps (Inferno, Nuke, Ancient, Cache all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Cache 3/4), not an opponent read, so expect LP to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapLPRBL
AnubisLP bann/a0g33%1-2
LP on Anubis
no recent maps
MirageRBL ban33%10-20n/a0g
LP on Mirage
W
BERG13–84d agoLWBT7–1310d agoL
K278–1314d agoLEternal Fire7–1321d agoL
MIBR17–192mo agoL
Imperial11–132mo agoLImperial7–133mo agoL
MIBR Academy11–133mo agoRBLS on Mirage
no recent maps
InfernoLP pick67%24-12n/a0g
NukeRBL pick65%22-12100%1-0
Dust2LP ban54%21-1850%2-2
CacheRBL ban86%6-1100%1-0
Ancientdecider67%22-11100%1-0
Each team's usual first ban: LP Anubis · RBLS Mirage.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
LP
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/112 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 112 maps they won, 35 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs GBCNukefrom 12 downvs SAW YoungstersNukefrom 10 downvs GalorysNukefrom 9 downvs Fake do BiruNukefrom 8 downvs FluxoInfernofrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i25/79 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 79 maps they lost, 25 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BESTIAAncientled 10 · lost 5-13vs Fake do BiruMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs ShindeNInfernoled 6 · lost 7-13vs Fake do BiruDust2led 5 · lost 12-16vs GalorysOverpassled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs GBCNukefrom 12 down · won 13-1
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BESTIAAncientled 10 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi26% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT26% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs GalorysOverpass19-15vs RED CanidsAncient12-16vs ODDIKAncient16-13vs Fake do BiruDust212-16vs YawaraAncient16-14
RBLS
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/6 (17%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 6 maps they won, 1 (17%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 17% of their wins were comebacks, not 17% of all games.vs WBTNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i1/4 (25%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 1 (25%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Eternal FireAnubisled 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 5 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs WBTNukefrom 5 down · won 13-10
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Eternal FireAnubisled 5 · lost 9-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 1Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 1 went to overtime.vs WBTAnubis13-16