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Predictions / The Last Resort vs G2 Ares · match preview
The Last Resort vs G2 Ares: CS2 match prediction · Hotspawn Showdown 2026 Finals
The Last Resort
World #172 · 41-39
VS
2026-10-24 12:00 UTC
Hotspawn Showdown 2026 Finals · Best of 3
G2 Ares
World #105 · 52-54
Hotspawn Showdown 2026 Finals · Best of 3
46%54%
The call
G2 Ares are favoured: our model gives them 54% against The Last Resort. No odds yet. Strength slightly favours G2 Ares.
Likely mapsAncient · Inferno · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
The Last ResortpullG2 Ares
Team strength1460
150961/39 G2
Track record41–39
52–5452/48 THE
Recent formLWLLL
LWLLW54/46 G2
Roster rating1.07
1.0752/48 THE
Head-to-head3 maps
4 maps56/44 G2
No odds on this match yet, so the model stands on its own data here. This read is 98% our own signal (192 maps of The Last Resort, 243 of G2 Ares). Head-to-head they've met 3 times: G2 Ares leads 2–1.
Bottom line: G2 Ares to beat The Last Resort, barely: a coin flip with a lean. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsThe Last Resort · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.03iStar gap: the best player rates 0.03 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
G2 Ares · avg 1.07 · star gap +0.08iStar gap: the best player rates 0.08 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
The Last Resort
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents8d ago The Last Resort1 : 2
G2 Ares◆ same lineup27d ago The Last Resort0 : 2 G2 Ares◆ same lineup2mo ago The Last Resort2 : 0 G2 Ares◆ same lineup
The Last Resort1 : 2 G2 Ares◆ same lineup27d ago The Last Resort0 : 2 G2 Ares◆ same lineup2mo ago The Last Resort2 : 0 G2 Ares◆ same lineup
Black Phoenix#550-20-2
The Last Resort vs Black Phoenix
Oct 21LMirage9-13Cache9-13G2 Ares vs Black Phoenix
Sep 22LDust26-13Inferno7-13
ex-Zero Tenacity#672-01-4
The Last Resort vs ex-Zero Tenacity
Apr 23WInferno13-7Overpass13-10
Phantom#681-20-4
The Last Resort vs Phantom
Apr 27LAncient13-11Mirage8-13Nuke4-13
QUAZAR#753-21-2
G2 Ares vs QUAZAR
Sep 20LInferno13-7Cache6-13Mirage6-13
Johnny Speeds#810-20-4
The Last Resort vs Johnny Speeds
Mar 31LAncient8-13Overpass9-13
INOX Division#842-21-4
Leo#882-22-1
G2 Ares vs Leo
Sep 21WMirage7-13Cache13-10Ancient13-11
EAC#1150-22-0
The Last Resort vs EAC
May 23LNuke5-13Overpass5-13G2 Ares vs EAC
Jul 31WInferno13-6Ancient13-11Map lab
G2 Ares50%to win the Bo3 · most likely The Last Resort 2-1
If the veto goes
The Last Resort 50%how the series ends50% G2 Ares
24%2-026%
26%2-125%
The Last Resort55%23-18vsG2 Ares45%21-20
56%Win51%
54%CT52%
48%T47%
44%Pistol50%
78%Conv80%
The Last Resort44%14-13vsG2 Ares56%31-22
52%Win58%
53%CT54%
50%T51%
56%Pistol51%
73%Conv72%
The Last Resort51%6-7vsG2 Ares49%9-11
46%Win45%
55%CT46%
39%T47%
58%Pistol45%
87%Conv61%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
The Last ResortAncientG2 Ares
54%CT side52%
48%T side47%
44%Pistol50%
78%After win80%
26%After loss22%
The Last ResortInfernoG2 Ares
53%CT side54%
50%T side51%
56%Pistol51%
73%After win72%
33%After loss35%
The Last ResortCacheG2 Ares
55%CT side46%
39%T side47%
58%Pistol45%
87%After win61%
18%After loss5%
Pistol rounds50% · 50% · level, no edge
After a won pistol78% · 73% · The Last Resort keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol27% · 24% · both bounce back about the same
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, The Last Resort vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapTHEG2
MirageTHE ban26%5-1446%23-27
NukeG2 ban56%23-18n/a0g
The Last Resort on Nuke
WLFO 1013–83d agoL
Privateer8–1314d agoWPrivateer13–815d agoW
Ryvex13–91mo agoLLeo5–132mo agoWPrivateer16–142mo agoL
OG10–132mo agoW
Strael Bora19–172mo agoG2 Ares on Nuke
no recent maps
AncientTHE pick56%23-1851%21-20
InfernoG2 pick52%14-1358%31-22
Dust2THE ban42%5-743%17-23
AnubisG2 ban56%10-835%7-13
Cachedecider46%6-745%9-11
Each team's usual first ban: The Last Resort Dust2 · G2 Ares Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
The Last Resort
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i32/97 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 97 maps they won, 32 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs CTRLAncientfrom 9 downvs QUAZARNukefrom 8 downvs Saint SinnersInfernofrom 7 downvs LilmixMiragefrom 6 downvs Rune EatersAncientfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i32/95 (34%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 95 maps they lost, 32 (34%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs SINNERSDust2led 11 · lost 2-13vs QUAZARAnubisled 10 · lost 10-13vs CTRLMirageled 9 · lost 11-13vs HonvédInfernoled 8 · lost 11-13vs HEROIC AcademyInfernoled 6 · lost 14-16
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs CTRLAncientfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs SINNERSDust2led 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs FuzosOverpass16-13vs BUFF3D UPNuke16-13vs CTRLAncient16-14vs Rune EatersAnubis14-16vs HEROIC AcademyInferno14-16
G2 Ares
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i44/118 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 118 maps they won, 44 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 downvs MisaInfernofrom 9 downvs FamalicãoAncientfrom 9 downvs AzuolasInfernofrom 8 downvs NAVI JuniorCachefrom 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i45/125 (36%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 125 maps they lost, 45 (36%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 10 · lost 6-13vs BAKSCacheled 10 · lost 3-13vs PhantomAncientled 9 · lost 4-13vs Rune EatersAncientled 8 · lost 5-13vs 9INEMirageled 8 · lost 23-25
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LavkedOverpassfrom 10 down · won 16-13
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs Black PhoenixDust2led 10 · lost 6-13
Avg map margini5.3 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 43Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 43 went to overtime.vs WWDust219-16vs UNiTYOverpass19-17vs zajezdzaczeDust216-14vs LavkedOverpass16-13vs aAaOverpass19-16