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Predictions / magic vs BIG · match preview
magic vs BIG: CS2 match prediction · Stake Ranked Episode 5
magic
World #26 · 48-29
VS
2026-10-27 11:00 UTC
Stake Ranked Episode 5 · Best of 3 · ★
BIG
World #37 · 53-28
Stake Ranked Episode 5 · Best of 3 · ★
44%56%
47%
1.951.75Market · 5 books
53%The call
BIG are favoured: our model gives them 56% against magic. Bookmakers lean BIG at 53%. Form slightly favours BIG, firepower clearly favours BIG.
Likely mapsAncient · Inferno · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
magicpullBIG
Team strength1603
163156/44 BIG
Track record48–29
53–2854/46 BIG
Recent formLWLLL
LWWLL60/40 BIG
Roster rating1.05
1.1491/9 BIG
Head-to-head2 maps2 maps50/50
Bookmakers imply 47% for magic (1.95 / 1.75); we land 3 points lower at 44%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 98% our own signal (182 maps of magic, 174 of BIG). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: split 1–1.
Bottom line: BIG to beat magic, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsmagic · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
BIG · avg 1.14 · star gap +0.14iStar gap: the best player rates 0.14 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
magic
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents2mo ago
magic2 : 0
BIG!7mo ago magic0 : 2 BIG!
magic2 : 0 BIG!⚠ Different lineup
magic
outmo0N
inlattykk
magic0 : 2 BIG!⚠ Different lineup
magic
outmo0N
inlattykk
MIBR#121-21-1
magic vs MIBR
Sep 18LAncient8-13Mirage13-11Inferno8-13
PARIVISION#132-21-4
FaZe#174-22-1
Ninjas in Pyjamas#196-43-3
magic vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Sep 27LAncient3-13Inferno13-10Mirage10-13Jul 26WAncient13-9Anubis13-11May 30LAnubis11-13Ancient13-6Mirage11-13+1 earlier meeting
BIG vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
Jul 4WAnubis13-11Inferno9-13Ancient13-6Apr 25LAncient5-13Mirage13-11Anubis5-13
The MongolZ#200-52-0
BIG vs The MongolZ
Oct 20WCache13-8Mirage13-4
GamerLegion#232-30-2
BIG vs GamerLegion
Jun 4LOverpass14-16Ancient11-13
HEROIC#252-30-2
BIG vs HEROIC
Apr 24LDust29-13Overpass7-13
Liquid#272-00-1
magic vs Liquid
Oct 20WAnubis13-10Dust213-10BIG vs Liquid
Jun 2LNuke10-13Map lab
BIG56%to win the Bo3 · most likely BIG 2-0
If the veto goes
magic 44%how the series ends56% BIG
16%2-035%
28%2-121%
magic47%29-19vsBIG53%24-14
60%Win63%
48%CT56%
55%T51%
45%Pistol54%
84%Conv80%
magic34%12-8vsBIG66%16-5
60%Win76%
55%CT55%
44%T57%
48%Pistol48%
95%Conv80%
magic58%6-3vsBIG42%8-6
67%Win57%
51%CT46%
51%T56%
44%Pistol39%
88%Conv73%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
magicAncientBIG
48%CT side56%
55%T side51%
45%Pistol54%
84%After win80%
25%After loss11%
magicInfernoBIG
55%CT side55%
44%T side57%
48%Pistol48%
95%After win80%
24%After loss27%
magicCacheBIG
51%CT side46%
51%T side56%
44%Pistol39%
88%After win73%
40%After loss18%
Pistol rounds45% · 49% · BIG win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol87% · 79% · magic keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol26% · 18% · magic fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, magic vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapMAGBIG
NukeMAG bann/a0g63%10-6
AnubisBIG ban65%11-667%6-3
AncientMAG pick60%29-1963%24-14
InfernoBIG pick60%12-876%16-5
Dust2MAG ban59%20-1463%12-7
MirageBIG ban51%21-2053%16-14
Each team's usual first ban: magic Nuke · BIG Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
magic
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i42/108 (39%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 108 maps they won, 42 (39%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 39% of their wins were comebacks, not 39% of all games.vs Gentle MatesMiragefrom 9 downvs EACAncientfrom 8 downvs Gentle MatesMiragefrom 8 downvs ECSTATICMiragefrom 7 downvs Nuclear TigeRESMiragefrom 7 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/74 (28%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 74 maps they lost, 21 (28%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs BetBoomMirageled 7 · lost 12-16vs The MongolZMirageled 7 · lost 23-25vs MIBRAncientled 7 · lost 8-13vs BIGOverpassled 6 · lost 11-13vs The MongolZInfernoled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Gentle MatesMiragefrom 9 down · won 13-4
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs BetBoomMirageled 7 · lost 12-16
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi35% · 27Close maps (≤3) · OT35% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 27 went to overtime.vs Fingers CrossedDust220-22vs BetBoomMirage12-16vs WHITEBIRDAncient16-14vs ECSTATICMirage16-13vs ECSTATICAncient14-16
BIG
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i34/110 (31%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 110 maps they won, 34 (31%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 31% of their wins were comebacks, not 31% of all games.vs NRGMiragefrom 12 downvs Gentle MatesAncientfrom 6 downvs magicOverpassfrom 6 downvs AMMiragefrom 5 downvs AMNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/64 (30%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 64 maps they lost, 19 (30%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AstralisCacheled 11 · lost 5-13vs HEROICDust2led 9 · lost 9-13vs G2Cacheled 8 · lost 5-13vs B8Dust2led 6 · lost 8-13vs SpiritDust2led 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 12 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NRGMiragefrom 12 down · won 16-12
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AstralisCacheled 11 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.4 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 19Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 19 went to overtime.vs HYPERSPIRITOverpass17-19vs HAVUOverpass16-14vs LeoAnubis16-14vs AMNuke16-12vs NemesisMirage14-16