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Predictions / Grêmio vs Underworld · match preview
Grêmio vs Underworld: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 South America Series 8
Grêmio
World #199 · 10-19
VS
2026-11-05 22:00 UTC
CCT 2026 South America Series 8 · Best of 3
Underworld
World #– · 0-2
CCT 2026 South America Series 8 · Best of 3
56%44%
57%
1.62.11Market · 1 books
43%The call
Grêmio are favoured: our model gives them 56% against Underworld. Bookmakers lean Grêmio at 57%. Strength slightly favours Underworld, form clearly favours Grêmio, firepower clearly favours Grêmio.
Likely mapsInferno · Dust2 · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
GrêmiopullUnderworld
Team strength1448
148358/42 UND
Track record10–19
0–252/48 GRÊ
Recent formLLWWL
LL78/22 GRÊ
Roster rating1.05
0.9493/7 GRÊ
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 57% for Grêmio (1.6 / 2.11) and we land at 56%, the same read. This read is 63% our own signal (71 maps of Grêmio, 6 of Underworld; thin sample, treat it as a lean, not a lock).
Bottom line: Grêmio to beat Underworld, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsGrêmio · avg 1.05 · star gap +0.12iStar gap: the best player rates 0.12 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balencyy★ | 1.01 | 82.2 | 70.6% | 56% | 1.17 |
| spinnie | 0.97 | 75.4 | 75% | 60% | 1.08 |
| MITHPUTTINI | 1.06 | 65.9 | 69.1% | 35% | 1.02 |
| s1lent | 0.92 | 67.7 | 69% | 51% | 1.01 |
| yeda | 0.83 | 63 | 66.7% | 59% | 0.95 |
Underworld · avg 0.94 · star gap +0.27iStar gap: the best player rates 0.27 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
Grêmio
Underworld
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
Isurus#1772-31-2
Underworld vs Isurus
Nov 5LMirage1-13Inferno13-10Dust24-13YOUyour end#2243-21-2
Underworld vs your end
Sep 18LInferno7-13Dust213-11Ancient11-13Map lab
Grêmio50%to win the Bo3 · most likely Grêmio 2-0
If the veto goes
Grêmio 50%how the series ends50% Underworld
26%2-024%
25%2-125%
Grêmio52%10-8vsUnderworld48%1-1
56%Win50%
48%CT50%
55%T42%
61%Pistol50%
77%Conv100%
Grêmio50%6-6vsUnderworld50%1-1
50%Win50%
49%CT53%
48%T33%
63%Pistol50%
80%Conv50%
Grêmio49%3-9vsUnderworld51%0-1
25%Win0%
50%CT0%
37%T8%
54%Pistol0%
85%Conv–
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
GrêmioInfernoUnderworld
48%CT side50%
55%T side42%
61%Pistol50%
77%After win100%
7%After loss0%
GrêmioDust2Underworld
49%CT side53%
48%T side33%
63%Pistol50%
80%After win50%
11%After loss50%
GrêmioMirageUnderworld
50%CT side0%
37%T side8%
54%Pistol0%
85%After win–
9%After loss0%
Pistol rounds60% · 40% · Grêmio win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol80% · 75% · Grêmio keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol9% · 17% · Underworld fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Grêmio vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapGRÊUND
AnubisGRÊ bann/a0gn/a0g
Grêmio on Anubis
no recent maps
Underworld on Anubis
no recent maps
NukeUND ban33%3-6n/a0g
Grêmio on Nuke
WLow Cortisol BR13–1113d agoL
Yawara16–1928d agoL
Procyon3–131mo agoLYawara9–131mo agoW
ALKA13–111mo agoLMEIA NOITE9–132mo agoLProcyon5–133mo agoL
paiN Academy13–164mo agoUnderworld on Nuke
no recent maps
InfernoGRÊ pick56%10-850%1-1
Dust2UND pick50%6-650%1-1
CacheGRÊ ban20%2-8n/a0g
Grêmio on Cache
Lyour end5–131d agoLYawara6–1312d agoLLow Cortisol BR10–1313d agoLQUINTESSÊNCIA17–191mo agoWyour end13–71mo agoLIsurus7–131mo agoL
ODDIK3–132mo agoWpaiN Academy13–103mo agoUnderworld on Cache
no recent maps
AncientUND ban40%4-60%0-1
Miragedecider25%3-90%0-1
Each team's usual first ban: Grêmio Anubis · Underworld Nuke.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Grêmio
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i14/28 (50%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 28 maps they won, 14 (50%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 50% of their wins were comebacks, not 50% of all games.vs ALKANukefrom 10 downvs Low Cortisol BRMiragefrom 10 downvs paiN AcademyInfernofrom 6 downvs your endCachefrom 6 downvs Low Cortisol BRNukefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/43 (44%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 43 maps they lost, 19 (44%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs IsurusCacheled 6 · lost 7-13vs YawaraAncientled 6 · lost 9-13vs Patins da FerrariMirageled 5 · lost 8-13vs ALKAAncientled 5 · lost 11-13vs Keyd StarsMirageled 5 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ALKANukefrom 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs IsurusCacheled 6 · lost 7-13
Avg map margini5.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi44% · 11Close maps (≤3) · OT44% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 11 went to overtime.vs Patins da FerrariCache14-16vs paiN AcademyNuke13-16vs paiN AcademyInferno22-18vs MEIA NOITEDust214-16vs IsurusDust216-14
Underworld
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/2 (100%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 2 maps they won, 2 (100%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 100% of their wins were comebacks, not 100% of all games.vs your endDust2from 4 downvs IsurusInfernofrom 3 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/4 (50%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 4 maps they lost, 2 (50%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs your endAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs your endInfernoled 3 · lost 7-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs your endDust2from 4 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni6 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs your endAncientled 6 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi50% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT50% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample