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Predictions / Marsborne vs Elusive · match preview
Marsborne vs Elusive: CS2 match prediction · CCT 2026 Challengers North America Series 1
Marsborne
World #105 · 57-34
VS
2026-11-08 20:30 UTC
CCT 2026 Challengers North America Series 1 · Best of 3
Elusive
World #– · 3-3
CCT 2026 Challengers North America Series 1 · Best of 3
86%14%
87%
1.067.19Market · 12 books
13%The call · high confidence
Marsborne are favoured: our model gives them 86% against Elusive. Bookmakers lean Marsborne at 87%. Strength clearly favours Marsborne, record slightly favours Marsborne, firepower clearly favours Marsborne, head-to-head clearly favours Marsborne.
Likely mapsInferno · Nuke · Mirage
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MarsbornepullElusive
Team strength1664
150281/19 MAR
Track record57–34
3–366/34 MAR
Recent formWLWLLWLLWW50/50
Roster rating1.16
1.0993/7 MAR
Head-to-head4 maps
0 maps83/17 MAR
The market agrees: bookmakers imply 87% for Marsborne (1.06 / 7.19) and we land at 86%, the same read. This read is 76% our own signal (208 maps of Marsborne, 13 of Elusive). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: Marsborne leads 2–0.
Bottom line: Marsborne to beat Elusive, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMarsborne · avg 1.16 · star gap +0.07iStar gap: the best player rates 0.07 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Elusive · avg 1.09 · star gap +0.16iStar gap: the best player rates 0.16 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
| Player | K-D | ADR | KAST | HS | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin★ | 1.11 | 80.9 | 69.1% | 55% | 1.25 |
| LittleBEER | 1.04 | 69.9 | 76.2% | 46% | 1.11 |
| FRIZZY | 1.02 | 68.4 | 70.5% | 55% | 1.09 |
| Jonji | 0.96 | 78.4 | 75.7% | 50% | 1.09 |
| Treehen | 0.83 | 66.4 | 72.3% | 38% | 0.9 |
Recent form
Marsborne
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents29d ago
Marsborne2 : 0ELU Elusive◆ same lineup2mo ago Marsborne2 : 0ELU Elusive!
Marsborne2 : 0ELU Elusive◆ same lineup2mo ago Marsborne2 : 0ELU Elusive!⚠ Different lineup
Elusive
outMsaia, sayN
inLittleBEER, Treehen
SportsBetExpert4-60-2
Marsborne vs SportsBetExpert
Oct 10LInferno10-13Nuke10-13Aug 2LNuke6-13Anubis4-13May 31WInferno13-9Mirage13-8+2 earlier meetings
Elusive vs SportsBetExpert
Aug 30LNuke3-13Anubis4-13Map lab
Marsborne52%to win the Bo3 · most likely Elusive 2-1
If the veto goes
Marsborne 52%how the series ends48% Elusive
27%2-021%
25%2-127%
Marsborne64%36-15vsElusive36%1-2
71%Win33%
63%CT29%
53%T36%
63%Pistol50%
80%Conv67%
Marsborne43%9-11vsElusive57%2-1
45%Win67%
55%CT57%
40%T47%
43%Pistol67%
65%Conv100%
Marsborne47%23-10vsElusive53%2-0
70%Win100%
64%CT83%
48%T55%
52%Pistol100%
82%Conv75%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MarsborneInfernoElusive
63%CT side29%
53%T side36%
63%Pistol50%
80%After win67%
24%After loss33%
MarsborneNukeElusive
55%CT side57%
40%T side47%
43%Pistol67%
65%After win100%
22%After loss0%
MarsborneMirageElusive
64%CT side83%
48%T side55%
52%Pistol100%
82%After win75%
25%After loss–
Pistol rounds55% · 69% · Elusive win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol78% · 82% · Elusive keep the momentum more often
After a lost pistol24% · 20% · Marsborne fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Marsborne vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Elusive habitually bans Anubis, Marsborne's strongest maps (Inferno, Mirage, Anubis all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Anubis 4/5), not an opponent read, so expect Marsborne to fight the veto for Inferno.
MapMARELU
CacheMAR ban0%0-1n/a0g
Marsborne on Cache
L
regain5–134mo agoElusive on Cache
no recent maps
AnubisELU ban79%19-50%0-1
InfernoMAR pick71%36-1533%1-2
NukeELU pick45%9-1167%2-1
Dust2MAR ban59%10-7n/a0g
Marsborne on Dust2
L
Without a Roof12–161mo agoW
LAG13–101mo agoWFarmVille13–81mo agoWFor Fun25–222mo agoWLAG13–112mo agoL
Voca5–132mo agoW
Overtake Sector13–82mo agoLVoca11–132mo agoElusive on Dust2
no recent maps
AncientELU ban60%25-1725%1-3
Miragedecider70%23-10100%2-0
Each team's usual first ban: Marsborne Cache · Elusive Dust2.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Marsborne
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i44/129 (34%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 129 maps they won, 44 (34%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 34% of their wins were comebacks, not 34% of all games.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 downvs Chicken CoopAncientfrom 10 downvs feet67Ancientfrom 10 downvs 9zAncientfrom 6 downvs LAGMiragefrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i31/78 (40%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 78 maps they lost, 31 (40%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13vs SportsBetExpertAnubisled 9 · lost 4-13vs NRGMirageled 6 · lost 17-19vs ZomblersAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs GalorysOverpassled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.8 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi32% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT32% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs NRGMirage19-22vs NRGMirage17-19vs BESTIAAncient16-19vs VocaOverpass14-16vs Fake do BiruInferno19-17
Elusive
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i2/6 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 6 maps they won, 2 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs NuToriousAncientfrom 4 downvs Crimson VortexNukefrom 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i2/7 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 7 maps they lost, 2 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MarsborneAncientled 3 · lost 10-13vs SportsBetExpertNukeled 3 · lost 3-13
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs NuToriousAncientfrom 4 down · won 13-9
Biggest lead blowni3 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MarsborneAncientled 3 · lost 10-13
Avg map margini7.1 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi15% · 0Close maps (≤3) · OT15% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 0 went to overtime.none in the sample