Matches / Upcoming / Iowa Stormboar vs Marsborne
Iowa Stormboar vs Marsborne: CS2 match prediction, odds and preview · ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1
High confidence
Our model gives Marsborne a 73% chance to beat Iowa Stormboar at ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1. Bookmakers price Iowa Stormboar at 6.65 and Marsborne at 1.07 (implied 14% vs 86%).
FormatBO3Form5-5 · 35-24PistolsIOW 60%Likely mapsNuke · Anubis · Mirage
Model read: track record · HLTV rank · firepower · form, weighted by sample size. All figures respect the data-range filter.
Recent form
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents
M80#380-22-1
Iowa Stormboar vs M80
May 27LAncient5-13Mirage11-13Marsborne vs M80
Apr 26WMirage5-13Ancient13-9Anubis13-8
NRG#460-23-6
Iowa Stormboar vs NRG
Jul 28LNuke13-16Inferno6-13
LAG#1160-24-0
Iowa Stormboar vs LAG
Jul 30LNuke4-13Inferno5-13
Overtake Sector#1682-14-0
Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake Sector
Jun 13WDust24-13Mirage13-7Ancient13-9
Festina Lente2-12-1
Iowa Stormboar vs Festina Lente
Jun 14WMirage4-13Nuke13-8Ancient13-3Marsborne vs Festina Lente
Jun 14WOverpass10-13Anubis13-9Ancient13-9Firepower
roster ratingsIowa Stormboar · avg 0.99 · top +0.11
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, Iowa Stormboar vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapIOWMAR
InfernoIOW ban 0%0-2 70%23-10
Dust2MAR ban 50%2-2 50%4-4
NukeIOW pick 57%4-3 42%5-7
AnubisMAR pick 50%1-1 76%13-4
AncientIOW ban 67%2-1 63%17-10
CacheMAR ban n/a0g 0%0-1
Iowa Stormboar on Cache
no recent maps
Marsborne on Cache
L
regain5–132mo agoMiragedecider 33%2-4 67%16-8
Each team's usual first ban: Iowa Stormboar Inferno · Marsborne Dust2.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Marsborne61%to win the seriesiMap edgesNuke: Iowa Stormboar 63% · Anubis: Marsborne 58% · Mirage: Marsborne 76% clearWhyMarsborne hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesIowa Stormboar 39%: 2-0 26%, 2-1 13% · Marsborne 61%: 2-1 39%, 2-0 22%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
Iowa Stormboar 39%Marsborne are the clearer side here: the most likely result is Marsborne 2-1.61% Marsborne
Nuke
Iowa Stormboar63%Marsborne37%
4-3record5-7
57%win42%
62%CT win48%
51%T win40%
64%pistol42%
100%convert60%
Anubis
Iowa Stormboar42%Marsborne58%
1-1record13-4
50%win76%
42%CT win57%
60%T win59%
100%pistol41%
100%convert100%
Mirage
Iowa Stormboar24%Marsborne76%
2-4record16-8
33%win67%
58%CT win63%
40%T win45%
42%pistol52%
60%convert76%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
IOWct
IOWt
MARct
MARt
IOWpistol
IOWconv
IOWeco
MARpistol
MARconv
MAReco
Nukepool
62%34/55
51%41/81
48%61/126
40%43/107
64%9/14
100%9/9
0%0/5
42%10/24
60%6/10
14%2/14
Anubispool
42%10/24
60%12/20
57%99/173
59%88/150
100%4/4
100%4/4
n/a
41%14/34
100%14/14
40%8/20
Miragepool
58%37/64
40%26/65
63%159/254
45%105/233
42%5/12
60%3/5
14%1/7
52%25/48
76%19/25
26%6/23
Infernoban
21%5/24
46%6/13
65%193/298
49%183/375
25%1/4
100%1/1
0%0/3
62%41/66
71%29/41
28%7/25
Dust2ban
54%21/39
46%18/39
44%39/89
43%26/61
13%1/8
100%1/1
14%1/7
56%9/16
67%6/9
14%1/7
Ancientban
70%14/20
47%17/36
60%165/273
47%126/270
50%3/6
100%3/3
0%0/3
65%35/54
83%29/35
11%2/19
Cacheban
n/a
n/a
42%5/12
0%0/6
n/a
n/a
n/a
0%0/2
n/a
0%0/2
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Iowa Stormboar wins more pistol rounds: 60% vs 46%. Winning a pistol usually wins you the next few rounds too, so this is a small head start.
Win the pistol → Iowa Stormboar usually win the next round too (89% vs 80%). Lose the pistol → Marsborne fight back to win the next round more often (28% vs 8%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
Iowa Stormboar
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i1/11 (9%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 11 maps they won, 1 (9%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 9% of their wins were comebacks, not 9% of all games.vs ShimmerDust2from 4 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i4/13 (31%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 13 maps they lost, 4 (31%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs M80Mirageled 5 · lost 11-13vs DETONATEMirageled 5 · lost 10-13vs MarsborneAnubisled 5 · lost 9-13vs NRGNukeled 3 · lost 13-16
Biggest comebackifrom 4 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs ShimmerDust2from 4 down · won 13-8
Biggest lead blowni5 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs M80Mirageled 5 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi17% · 2Close maps (≤3) · OT17% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 2 went to overtime.vs DETONATEMirage14-16vs NRGNuke13-16
Marsborne
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i31/85 (36%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 85 maps they won, 31 (36%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 36% of their wins were comebacks, not 36% of all games.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 downvs 9zAncientfrom 6 downvs LAGMiragefrom 6 downvs NRGInfernofrom 5 downvs regainMiragefrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i21/56 (38%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 56 maps they lost, 21 (38%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13vs SportsBetExpertAnubisled 9 · lost 4-13vs NRGMirageled 6 · lost 17-19vs ZomblersAncientled 6 · lost 11-13vs GalorysOverpassled 6 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs Overtake SectorInfernofrom 10 down · won 13-11
Biggest lead blowni11 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs NRGDust2led 11 · lost 2-13
Avg map margini5.9 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 13Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 13 went to overtime.vs NRGMirage19-22vs NRGMirage17-19vs BESTIAAncient16-19vs VocaOverpass14-16vs Fake do BiruInferno19-17
Iowa Stormboar vs Marsborne FAQ
Who is favored to win Iowa Stormboar vs Marsborne?
Marsborne are favored with a 73% model win probability, and are the bookmakers' favorite too.
What are the betting odds for Iowa Stormboar vs Marsborne?
Bookmakers price Iowa Stormboar at 6.65 and Marsborne at 1.07 (implied 14% vs 86%).
When do Iowa Stormboar and Marsborne play?
Iowa Stormboar vs Marsborne is scheduled for 2026-08-27 01:00 UTC at ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1.