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Predictions / G2 vs Astralis · match preview
G2 vs Astralis: CS2 match prediction · FISSURE Playground 3
G2
World #9 · 41-27
VS
2026-09-08 12:00 UTC
FISSURE Playground 3 · Best of 3 · ★★
Astralis
World #13 · 30-24
73%27%
67%
1.42.83Market · 15 books
33%The call · high confidence
G2 are favoured: our model gives them 73% against Astralis. Bookmakers lean G2 at 67%. Strength slightly favours G2, firepower clearly favours G2, head-to-head clearly favours G2.
Likely mapsAncient · Cache · Inferno
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
G2pullAstralis
Team strength1666
158866/34 G2
Track record41–27
30–2455/45 G2
Recent formLWWLW
LWLWL56/44 G2
Roster rating1.13
1.0972/28 G2
Head-to-head4 maps
1 maps71/29 G2
Bookmakers imply 67% for G2 (1.4 / 2.83); we land 6 points higher at 73%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 96% our own signal (158 maps of G2, 126 of Astralis). Head-to-head they've met 2 times: G2 leads 2–0.
Bottom line: G2 to beat Astralis, and we're comfortable saying so. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Recent form
G2
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents19d ago
G22 : 1 Astralis◆ same lineup4mo ago Astralis0 : 2 G2!
G22 : 1 Astralis◆ same lineup4mo ago Astralis0 : 2 G2!⚠ Different lineup
G2
outSunPayus
inr1nkle
Spirit#12-122-2
G2 vs Spirit
Aug 28LDust26-13Cache9-13Jun 19LOverpass13-9Dust214-16Mirage22-25May 15LDust26-13Ancient11-13+3 earlier meetings
Falcons#21-40-2
Astralis vs Falcons
Aug 13LAncient7-13Dust211-13
FURIA#31-23-3
G2 vs FURIA
Aug 20LAncient3-13Anubis13-3Dust24-13
MOUZ#51-42-4
FUT#66-69-9
G2 vs FUT
Jun 12WOverpass13-5Ancient6-13Mirage13-9Jun 7LAnubis11-13Overpass13-7Ancient4-13Mar 10LMirage13-4Dust211-13Overpass11-13+1 earlier meeting
Astralis vs FUT
Apr 30WMirage13-5Nuke13-10Apr 11LAncient5-13Mirage5-13Nuke16-14Dust23-13Mar 15WDust28-13Ancient13-4Overpass16-12+4 earlier meetings
Legacy#72-20-4
Natus Vincere#86-40-2
G2 vs Natus Vincere
Aug 30WAncient13-6Inferno13-10Jun 15WDust211-13Inferno16-14Mirage13-10Mar 7WDust27-13Mirage13-5Ancient13-7+1 earlier meeting
Astralis vs Natus Vincere
Feb 14LNuke10-13Mirage6-13
Aurora#104-51-4
G2 vs Aurora
Aug 31WAnubis7-13Inferno19-16Mirage13-1Aug 26WInferno13-5Anubis16-12Jun 13LOverpass8-13Anubis7-13+1 earlier meeting
Firepower
roster ratingsG2 · avg 1.13 · top +0.09
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, G2 vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Neither side's habitual bans cleanly remove the other's best maps, so the veto could realistically go several ways.
MapG2AST
NukeG2 bann/a0g47%9-10
G2 on Nuke
no recent maps
AnubisAST ban31%5-11n/a0g
G2 on Anubis
LAurora7–137d agoWAurora16–1212d agoWFURIA13–318d agoL
Liquid6–131mo agoL
Nemiga9–132mo agoLAurora7–133mo agoLFUT11–133mo agoL
BetBoom10–135mo agoAstralis on Anubis
no recent maps
AncientG2 pick64%18-1073%19-7
CacheAST pick50%1-175%3-1
MirageG2 ban61%20-1340%8-12
Dust2AST ban50%19-1925%6-18
Infernodecider63%15-958%7-5
Each team's usual first ban: G2 Nuke · Astralis Anubis.
Map lab
Three ways the map pool could fall: each side's best-case Bo3 and the most likely draw. Pick a card to load its series odds and the map-by-map head-to-head underneath.
Astralis55%to win the seriesiMap edgesAncient: Astralis 59% · Cache: Astralis 56% toss-up · Inferno: G2 55% toss-upWhyAstralis hold the edge across the maps (2 of 3 lean their way).OutcomesG2 45%: 2-1 27%, 2-0 18% · Astralis 55%: 2-0 33%, 2-1 22%
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
series odds add up every way a team can win, not just one scoreline
G2 45%It’s nearly a coin-flip. Astralis only lead because their Ancient is strong enough that nicking just one of the close maps wins the series.55% Astralis
Ancient
G241%Astralis59%
18-10record19-7
64%win73%
61%CT win63%
48%T win52%
66%pistol56%
76%convert86%
Cache
G244%Astralis56%
1-1record3-1
50%win75%
46%CT win73%
69%T win53%
50%pistol75%
100%convert100%
Inferno
G255%Astralis45%
15-9record7-5
63%win58%
64%CT win60%
46%T win48%
48%pistol54%
87%convert77%
Pistol, eco & sides
win% · convert if won · eco if lost · CT/T per mapct / t side win% (Nuke skews CT, Dust2 T)pistol won the opening pistolconv then won round 2eco lost pistol, won round 2
Map
G2ct
G2t
ASTct
ASTt
G2pistol
G2conv
G2eco
ASTpistol
ASTconv
ASTeco
Ancientpool
61%167/274
48%143/297
63%149/238
52%153/292
66%37/56
76%28/37
37%7/19
56%29/52
86%25/29
4%1/23
Cachepool
46%11/24
69%11/16
73%35/48
53%16/30
50%2/4
100%2/2
50%1/2
75%6/8
100%6/6
50%1/2
Infernopool
64%154/242
46%121/263
60%79/131
48%56/117
48%23/48
87%20/23
32%8/25
54%13/24
77%10/13
55%6/11
Nukeban
n/a
n/a
57%105/184
43%81/190
n/a
n/a
n/a
45%17/38
76%13/17
19%4/21
Anubisban
43%66/153
50%94/189
n/a
n/a
56%18/32
72%13/18
21%3/14
n/a
n/a
n/a
Mirageban
60%203/341
53%188/354
49%118/240
43%73/171
59%39/66
90%35/39
26%7/27
40%16/40
88%14/16
13%3/24
Dust2ban
52%196/380
52%197/382
45%131/288
40%81/205
57%43/76
86%37/43
30%10/33
48%23/48
83%19/23
8%2/25
colour = vs averagebelowavgabove
Pistol rounds are a tie. Both win about the same (G2 57%, Astralis 57%). Nobody has an edge.
Win the pistol → Astralis usually win the next round too (85% vs 81%). Lose the pistol → G2 fight back to win the next round more often (35% vs 22%).
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
G2
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i22/89 (25%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 89 maps they won, 22 (25%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 25% of their wins were comebacks, not 25% of all games.vs FURIAAnubisfrom 10 downvs BIGCachefrom 8 downvs AcendDust2from 6 downvs Gaimin GladiatorsInfernofrom 5 downvs GamerLegionInfernofrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i28/68 (41%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 68 maps they lost, 28 (41%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs FURIAAncientled 10 · lost 3-13vs Natus VincereAncientled 8 · lost 9-13vs BetBoomMirageled 6 · lost 11-13vs Passion UAOverpassled 5 · lost 8-13vs FUTMirageled 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FURIAAnubisfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni10 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs FURIAAncientled 10 · lost 3-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 23Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 23 went to overtime.vs LiquidAnubis16-14vs SpiritDust213-16vs MOUZOverpass13-16vs LegacyInferno14-16vs paiNInferno14-16
Astralis
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i13/65 (20%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 65 maps they won, 13 (20%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 20% of their wins were comebacks, not 20% of all games.vs MOUZAncientfrom 7 downvs EYEBALLERSAncientfrom 7 downvs The MongolZAncientfrom 6 downvs FUTNukefrom 6 downvs HOTUAncientfrom 5 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i14/61 (23%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 61 maps they lost, 14 (23%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AuroraDust2led 8 · lost 11-13vs GamerLegionInfernoled 8 · lost 14-16vs PARIVISIONDust2led 6 · lost 13-16vs SpiritOverpassled 4 · lost 8-13vs paiNNukeled 4 · lost 11-13
Biggest comebackifrom 7 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs MOUZAncientfrom 7 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AuroraDust2led 8 · lost 11-13
Avg map margini5.7 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi33% · 16Close maps (≤3) · OT33% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 16 went to overtime.vs fnaticMirage12-16vs NRGMirage14-16vs SpiritDust213-16vs PARIVISIONDust213-16vs HEROICDust216-13