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Predictions / MOUZ vs Spirit · match preview
MOUZ vs Spirit: CS2 match prediction · ESL Pro League Season 24
MOUZ
World #3 · 42-22
VS
2026-10-10 17:00 UTC
ESL Pro League Season 24 · Best of 3 · ★★★★★
Spirit
World #1 · 48-12
ESL Pro League Season 24 · Best of 3 · ★★★★★
45%55%
41%
2.31.6Market · 23 books
59%The call
Spirit are favoured: our model gives them 55% against MOUZ. Bookmakers lean Spirit at 59%. Record slightly favours Spirit, form slightly favours MOUZ, firepower slightly favours Spirit, head-to-head slightly favours Spirit.
Likely mapsMirage · Dust2 · Cache
How the model gets there
One number from the signals below. Each row shows which side it pulls toward and how hard; the weights are learned from every match in our history (team strength and roster rating do most of the work), and the blend is shrunk toward the betting market based on how much data backs it, so a thin sample can never read as a lock.
MOUZpullSpirit
Team strength1760
178655/45 SPI
Track record42–22
48–1260/40 SPI
Recent formWWWWL
WWLLW57/43 MOU
Roster rating1.13
1.1864/36 SPI
Head-to-head6 maps
10 maps61/39 SPI
Bookmakers imply 41% for MOUZ (2.3 / 1.6); we land 4 points higher at 45%: that gap is where we think the value is. This read is 97% our own signal (155 maps of MOUZ, 143 of Spirit). Head-to-head they've met 6 times: Spirit leads 4–2.
Bottom line: Spirit to beat MOUZ, but it's closer than it looks. Everything below is the data behind that call.
Firepower
roster ratingsMOUZ · avg 1.13 · star gap +0.04iStar gap: the best player rates 0.04 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Spirit · avg 1.18 · star gap +0.29iStar gap: the best player rates 0.29 above the team average. A big gap means the team leans on one star; a small one means the firepower is spread out.
Recent form
MOUZ
Head-to-head
past meetings & common opponents5d ago MOUZ2 : 0
Spirit◆ same lineup1mo ago MOUZ1 : 3 Spirit◆ same lineup2mo ago MOUZ3 : 1 Spirit◆ same lineup5mo ago MOUZ0 : 2 Spirit!6mo ago MOUZ0 : 2 Spirit!8mo ago MOUZ0 : 2 Spirit!
MOUZ2 : 0 Spirit◆ same lineup1mo ago MOUZ1 : 3 Spirit◆ same lineup2mo ago MOUZ3 : 1 Spirit◆ same lineup5mo ago MOUZ0 : 2 Spirit!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ
outjL
inPR
MOUZ0 : 2 Spirit!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ
outBrollan, Jimpphat
inPR, xelex
MOUZ0 : 2 Spirit!⚠ Different lineup
MOUZ
outBrollan, Jimpphat
inPR, xelex
Vitality#23-62-4
MOUZ vs Vitality
Sep 5WDust213-11Mirage13-7Jun 13LMirage9-13Dust213-7Inferno4-13Feb 16LDust25-13Inferno8-13+1 earlier meeting
FURIA#46-65-3
MOUZ vs FURIA
Oct 9WNuke13-11Inferno13-6Oct 4WCache13-4Mirage13-7Sep 19LCache8-13Mirage19-16Nuke6-13+2 earlier meetings
Falcons#55-310-4
MOUZ vs Falcons
Aug 31WNuke6-13Ancient13-6Inferno13-3May 23LMirage13-7Dust27-13Nuke10-13Feb 3WInferno16-14Dust219-17Spirit vs Falcons
Oct 9WMirage13-8Anubis13-10Sep 5WNuke13-8Ancient13-11Jun 20LAnubis14-16Mirage13-8Dust212-16+3 earlier meetings
Legacy#64-12-0
Spirit vs Legacy
Aug 22WDust213-7Ancient13-9
G2#74-112-2
Spirit vs G2
Aug 28WDust213-6Cache13-9Jun 19WOverpass9-13Dust216-14Mirage25-22May 15WDust213-6Ancient13-11+3 earlier meetings
FUT#85-83-1
MOUZ vs FUT
Aug 21LDust213-16Ancient5-13Aug 14LAncient6-13Nuke16-12Mirage11-13Jun 14LAncient11-13Nuke13-10Mirage7-13+2 earlier meetings
Spirit vs FUT
Aug 23WCache10-13Anubis16-13Ancient16-14Nuke13-5
Aurora#96-22-1
MOUZ vs Aurora
May 15WDust213-11Nuke13-8May 12WDust214-16Dust213-11Nuke19-15Apr 14WDust213-4Mirage13-8+1 earlier meeting
Spirit vs Aurora
Jun 12WDust29-13Anubis13-4Nuke13-5
Natus Vincere#106-24-0
Map lab
Spirit60%to win the Bo3 · most likely Spirit 2-1
If the veto goes
MOUZ 40%how the series ends60% Spirit
14%2-029%
26%2-131%
MOUZ63%26-8vsSpirit37%20-11
76%Win65%
64%CT59%
53%T49%
49%Pistol56%
88%Conv80%
MOUZ23%16-19vsSpirit77%31-10
46%Win76%
49%CT55%
46%T55%
43%Pistol44%
87%Conv91%
MOUZ45%3-3vsSpirit55%5-4
50%Win56%
67%CT55%
38%T51%
33%Pistol50%
100%Conv100%
Pistol, eco & sides
who wins pistols, what happens next, which side each team ownsCT side / T side rounds won on that side · Pistol opening pistol rounds won · After win won the round right after taking the pistol · After loss won the round right after losing it. Colour is the value against the league average on that map: above average below, and the tick marks the average.
MOUZMirageSpirit
64%CT side59%
53%T side49%
49%Pistol56%
88%After win80%
31%After loss15%
MOUZDust2Spirit
49%CT side55%
46%T side55%
43%Pistol44%
87%After win91%
28%After loss20%
MOUZCacheSpirit
67%CT side55%
38%T side51%
33%Pistol50%
100%After win100%
25%After loss22%
Pistol rounds45% · 49% · Spirit win more of them, a small head start
After a won pistol88% · 87% · both convert about the same
After a lost pistol29% · 18% · MOUZ fight back and win the next round more often
Projected veto
likely picks & bansihow this projection works
A hypothetical veto for this matchup, projected from how each team has picked and banned before (Bo3, MOUZ vetoes first). It's a guide to the likely map pool and each side's win% on those maps, not a guarantee: teams adapt to the opponent and the event.
Spirit habitually bans Inferno, MOUZ's strongest maps (Inferno, Mirage, Overpass all ≥60%). That's a standing habit (Inferno 60/60), not an opponent read, so expect MOUZ to fight the veto for Mirage.
MapMOUSPI
AnubisMOU bann/a0g75%12-4
MOUZ on Anubis
no recent maps
InfernoSPI ban69%18-8n/a0g
MOUZ on Inferno
WFURIA13–61d agoWNatus Vincere13–1022d agoW
NRG13–523d agoWFalcons13–31mo agoW
PARIVISION13–102mo agoW
3DMAX13–32mo agoLVitality4–134mo agoWFURIA13–54mo agoSpirit on Inferno
no recent maps
MirageMOU pick76%26-865%20-11
Dust2SPI pick46%16-1976%31-10
AncientMOU ban42%8-1182%18-4
NukeSPI ban58%14-1067%10-5
Each team's usual first ban: MOUZ Anubis · Spirit Inferno.
Mentality & map flow
comebacks, blown leadsHover any ⓘ for the matches behind it.
MOUZ
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i35/95 (37%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 95 maps they won, 35 (37%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 37% of their wins were comebacks, not 37% of all games.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 downvs Inner CircleAncientfrom 9 downvs GamerLegionNukefrom 8 downvs NRGInfernofrom 8 downvs SpiritDust2from 8 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i19/60 (32%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 60 maps they lost, 19 (32%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16vs FUTDust2led 6 · lost 11-13vs Natus VincereCacheled 6 · lost 10-13vs Natus VincereAncientled 5 · lost 10-13vs 9zAncientled 5 · lost 9-13
Biggest comebackifrom 9 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs FUTOverpassfrom 9 down · won 16-14
Biggest lead blowni7 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs AstralisAncientled 7 · lost 14-16
Avg map margini5.6 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi30% · 15Close maps (≤3) · OT30% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 15 went to overtime.vs FalconsInferno16-14vs FalconsDust219-17vs G2Overpass16-13vs FUTOverpass16-14vs AstralisAncient14-16
Spirit
Comebacks (won from 3+ down)i33/101 (33%)Comebacks (won from 3+ down)Of the 101 maps they won, 33 (33%) were won after trailing by 3+ rounds. So 33% of their wins were comebacks, not 33% of all games.vs LuminosityAncientfrom 10 downvs 9zMiragefrom 7 downvs M80Dust2from 7 downvs FURIAMiragefrom 6 downvs FUTAnubisfrom 6 down
Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)i12/42 (29%)Leads blown (lost from 3+ up)Of the 42 maps they lost, 12 (29%) were lost after leading by 3+ rounds: leads they threw away.vs MOUZDust2led 8 · lost 5-13vs MOUZMirageled 7 · lost 11-13vs 9zOverpassled 6 · lost 12-16vs VitalityNukeled 6 · lost 14-16vs FUTCacheled 6 · lost 10-13
Biggest comebackifrom 10 downBiggest comebackLargest deficit erased to win a map.vs LuminosityAncientfrom 10 down · won 13-3
Biggest lead blowni8 roundsBiggest lead blownLargest lead held and still lost.vs MOUZDust2led 8 · lost 5-13
Avg map margini5.5 roundsAvg map marginAverage round difference across maps.
Close maps (≤3) · OTi31% · 20Close maps (≤3) · OT31% of their maps were decided by ≤3 rounds (nailbiters); 20 went to overtime.vs AstralisDust216-13vs Natus VincereMirage16-14vs G2Dust216-13vs FURIAMirage13-16vs VitalityMirage13-16